Better play today - DMR P5 or DMR P6?

[PatCummings]

Not sure if you've heard Steve on the show the last two days, floating the idea that the "syndicates" make today's Del Mar pick five - with a $.50 minimum, 14% takeout, and a bigger carryover and likely bigger pool - a less attractive play than the pick six. Jay Privman, Steve Davidowitz, and even caller Frank from New York all disagreed on air with this.

Personally, I don't care what syndicates do in the pick 5 or the pick 6 (where they normally play). I'm playing the P5 for myself, with a sensible budget, and taking shots where I deem reasonable, but I think the takeout, the minimum, and huge pool make the pick 5 infinitely more likable than the pick 6.

Your thoughts?

[Clip-Clop]

PK-5 for sure. For me anyway, a serious lack of budget and talent keep me from playing many Pk-6s.

[10 pnt move up]

Pick 5 for sure and its not close.

There is going to be much more un-informed money in the Pick 5 compared to the majority of the Pick 6 money that is going to be majority syndicate money.

Then there is the whole takeout thing.

[Track Phantom!]

Great question. I gave this some thought, as well. My opinion is serious, syndicated type players would be less likely to dive into the p5, despite the lower takeout. Two main reasons for this.

1) .50c minimum wager is the great equalizer and a few favorites in the sequence would destroy the payoffs. Many "smallish" type players can take a bite.

2) The smaller fields in a few races in the sequence almost ensures a "less than four figure score".

If I were looking to invest thousands today, I would definitely focus on the p6....but that is just me.

[tanner12oz]

Originally Posted by Track Phantom!

2) The smaller fields in a few races in the sequence almost ensures a "less than four figure score".

would you like to make a wager on this?

[Track Phantom!]

Originally Posted by tanner12oz

would you like to make a wager on this?

No thanks. I'm betting it so I certainly hope I'm wrong.

[Vegaskid]

PK5 no doubt! Has always been the PLAYERS bet...

[Calzone Lord]

It's the Pick-5. By about 20 lengths and not even close.

It's very rare when you get a carryover like that -- and you've got the low minimum and low takeout.

The carryover is even larger in the p5. Syndicates have a lot less power in a Pk 5.

[PatCummings]

A 4-5 shot, and only one double digit win mutuel through the first four legs...five of six willpays are signers for a $0.50 minimum bet. The $484 willpay seems solid on the favorite as well.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by PatCummings

A 4-5 shot, and only one double digit win mutuel through the first four legs...five of six willpays are signers for a $0.50 minimum bet. The $484 willpay seems solid on the favorite as well.

Paid almost twice the parlay, considering the strong favorites that won two of the legs thats pretty good. There was no bust out horse that won, everyone strongly figured on even the most modest tickets.

[Calzone Lord]

The Pick 5 proved the better opportunity today.

By far the two biggest favorites of the sequence both won at odds-on. The other three, more wide open races, were all won by 2nd choices.

The thing paid $1,896 for $2 -- and you didn't even have to sign for it (let alone have anything withheld) because it was offered in a 50-cent minimum increment.

In the Pick 6 sequence -- you had to find a pair of horses like Shrug and A Day Away in the sequence, that made up a 74-to-1 double. Two very hard horses to have in tandem without putting in a large ticket.

The P5 pool had over $2.7 million in it -- just because the minimum is 50-cents doesn't mean a person or syndicate wishing to put several hundred dollars or more into it has to spread like a dope and make an expensive ticket fishing around.

These Pick 5 opportunities like today are among the best situations in all of horse racing -- they just VERY RARELY come along -- because a 50-cent P5 is very, very hard to carry. Unlike a Pick 6 which is going to carry with a much, much, much greater frequency.

[Kasept]

I looked at it sideways then because for what I wanted to spend, the P6 felt like an investment that had the far greater potential. And when I was 4 for 4 and 2x4 going into the last pair, I really thought it was going my way.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Kasept

I really thought it was going my way.

Just by reading your analysis on the P5 -- I think you handicapped it well but your strategy was questionable based on what you wrote.

I could second guess your strategy by reading your own analysis this way.

You took a stand and singled Hoorayforhollywood in the P6...but went 4 deep in the P5 using three others with him trying to get more "payoff potential"

You went two deep in the opening leg despite calling it a "competitive race" -- and from a numbers standpoint -- it was a more competitive race like you said. Five of them in there looked very close and hard to separate on figures. And you didn't make a case for factors why one of the five was the right horse. In fact, your "most likely" hadn't raced in over 3 months and was plunging in for a tag for the first time in his life. Admittedly, he would have been my most likely as well -- but that race was crying for coverage.

Where as 4-to-5 favorite HoorayforHollywood (your P6 single) had an edge in figures off his route race over the track last out and that was earned off of a layoff.

Reading what you wrote, you could have easily singled HoorayforHollywood like you did in the P6 and not tried to split hairs in the 1st race.

A P5 ticket of (5 X 4 X 1 X 3 X 1) costs just $30 and it pays you $484. That's an IRS hassle free 15-to-1 winner... despite practically buying that 1st leg and having odds on favorites win as your two singles.

Of course, had you landed on the winner in the leg where you split hairs, and had that speed duel have cost Hoorayforhollywood the race, you'd have had a much nicer hit than a lousy stinking IRS free 15/1.

[declansharbor]

Doug, what do u think the p5 pays if the 6, Great Warrior, catches HoorayforHollywood in the lane in r3. Any idea?

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by declansharbor

Doug, what do u think the p5 pays if the 6, Great Warrior, catches HoorayforHollywood in the lane in r3. Any idea?

It's hard to say for sure -- probably a lot bigger boost than you'd expect from a 5/2 beating a 4/5.

I thought Hoorayforhollywood ran his eye-balls out to win that breakaway speed duel and still hold on.

[declansharbor]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

It's hard to say for sure -- probably a lot bigger boost than you'd expect from a 5/2 beating a 4/5.

I thought Hoorayforhollywood ran his eye-balls out to win that breakaway speed duel and still hold on.

The only thing i could think of during that ordeal was the thread you recently started. He was locked up in a pace battle and the other horse we used in that race looked to be in a full drive with 4-5 furlongs left. I looked to my one buddy to tell him we're cooked, and by the time i turn my head back around, McKenzie's Way was wilting and the 6 just kept on coming. I knew the 1 winning severely hurt our score, but how that race played out, i just considered ourselves lucky to escape it and be 4 by 1 in the last 2 races of the sequence.

Thanks Doug.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

A P5 ticket of (5 X 4 X 1 X 3 X 1) costs just $30 and it pays you $484. That's an IRS hassle free 15-to-1 winner... despite practically buying that 1st leg and having odds on favorites win as your two singles.

Don't have time for a post-script, but buying of races, like using 5 or maybe 6 in the 1st, is central to what I suggested regarding the 2 sequences going in and why I was more forcused on the P6. Narrow in the 3rd/5th and wider in the 1st/2nd/4th was obviously the preferable structure but making that call now with a $30 ticket is easy and nothing says the 2nd or 4th go your way with 'just' 4 & 3. What I didn't want to do or suggest was spending 'P6 money' trying to hit the P5.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Kasept

What I didn't want to do or encourage was the playing of a P6 sized ticket trying to hit the P5..

But it was such an advantage situation -- even doing that wouldn't have been a bad idea as long as you structured it in a sane way and didn't baseball hopeless horses together on a "caveman" style ticket.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

But it was such an advantage situation -- even doing that wouldn't have been a bad idea as long as you structured it in a sane way and didn't baseball hopeless horses together on a "caveman" style ticket.

If you were singling in the P5 in one or two slots, you would still need back ups? What do you think the ideal budget was for the 5?

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Kasept

If you were singling in the P5 in one or two slots, you would still need back ups? What do you think the ideal budget was for the 5?

It always depends on your opinions of the races in the sequence.

I've seen some p5's at Gulfstream where I doubted I could hit them going six deep the whole way.

I didn't give my opinions here before the races for yesterdays card at Del Mar -- but by reading your analysis I think you handicapped the sequence pretty well.

IMO, deciding how to play the p5 is like taking a survey. Each race has a question. For instance,

Leg #1 is it was 'Two of the seven have almost no chance -- five others are very close. Can I do any actual handicapping and narrow it down if I have to?

Leg #2 is 'none of the experienced horses in here have run near par for this class level. Do I trust all the workout reports and use the two firsters they like -- or do I spread?'

And so on.