8/18: Saratoga (Alabama/Sword Dancer); Arlington (Million Day)

[Kasept]

SARATOGA RACE COURSE


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Master Splash 4-1 5th
Best Value: #10 Gramercy 10-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Redemption Road 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Hookedonchurchpunch 15-1 10th


2nd: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

As discussed with Nick Tammarro Friday, there's not a lot to latch on to in today's baby races that enable you to build plays with confidence..

Most Likely: #7 Lemon Drop Dream 3-1: Half to Denomination.. 3rd
Best Value: #5 Elmutahid 8-1: KMc strong stretching out 2nd start.. 2nd
Next Best: #1 Amen Kitten 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Sonofasamurai 4-1 WON ($15.40)


3rd: NY-MDN CLM, 3+, 5.5f (P3, DD)

A 'bad horses win bad races' situation? Firster from Galluscio as viable as the rest of this group and will be a value..

Best Value: #9 Nine Links 12-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Seghesio 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Five Card Draw 3-1 5th
Super Add: #1 Late SCR


4th: MSW, 2yo, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Titletown Five 7-2: $7 would be value with return to debut effort.. 2nd
Next Best: #4 Violence 9-5: Pletcher $600k yrlg but dam won but once.. WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #3 Bad Hombre 8-1: FTS from Mig's group; Kimmel earns with debuters.. 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Holden On 4-1: C. Brown 2nd timer should be tighter now.. 5th


5th: NY-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)

Will include favored Post Pattern in multis but look for a score within the race. State bred turf routes baby!

Big SCR of #10 River Tune out of here..

Most Likely: #2 Nelson Avenue 6-1 WON ($10.40)
Best Value: #4 Moneyinyour Pocket 20-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Post Pattern 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Jake's Shake 12-1 4th


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-4-5-7-8
3: 4-7-9
4: 4-5
5: 2-3-4-8-9

5x3x2x5 = 150 x .50 = $75


6th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

First of 2 on the Mellon that features fields of 14. Only 12 of them look like they can win though..

Most Likely: #9 Colonel Bill 5-2 WON ($6.40)
Best Value: #1 Cat Sweep 10-1
Next Best: #7 Kathy's Kitten 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Hardrocker 12-1 2nd
Super Add: #10 See Me Proud 10-1 4th


7th: OC/N2X, 3+, 7f (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Que Posse 5-2 6th
Best Value: #5 Prince Silver 5-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Shrewd One 3-1 WON ($7.40)
Exotics Use: #2 Hello Lover 7-2 2nd


8th: OC/N1X, 3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Strong Impact 7-2 WON ($7.40)
Best Value: #4 Tazered 15-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Clip the Coupons 5-1 8th
Exotics Use: #7 Marquet Cat 5-1 2nd


9th: 38th Sword Dancer Inv. (G1), 3+, 12f-IT (P3, DD)

This race frequently goes to a quality turfer that has been knocking on the door in G1 turf marathons and Brilliant Speed ran better than it looks in the Manhattan and Woodford Reserve. Change to Catellano may be timely and price will be nice..

Best Value: #8 Brilliant Speed 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Point of Entry 5-2 WON ($4.80)
Exotics Use: #9 Turbo Compressor 2-1 9th
Super Add: #1 Al Khali 8-1 2nd


10th: Alabama (G1), 3yo-F, 10f (DD)

Grace Hall or Questing are overwhelmingly likely, but take a long look at Uptown Bertie as a nutty alternative, small multi-race back-up play and exotics booster. Yes she needs to make up perhaps 15 lengths to compete with the big girls, but this race is a mile and a quarter and none of these are proven commodities at that trip. Uptown Bertie has improved dramatically since the start of the summer and has a pedigree positive for the trip that may be getting overlooked. Productive dam De Bertie is by De Niro, the Brant-Strawbridge campaigned son out of their long-winded champion Waya who won the 10f Saratoga Cup here in 1974 and the Beldame at the same trip later that fall. Love that Margolis put a 6f work in her 10 days ago and with plenty of minor Oaks opps available, the Kleins are too smart to waste a start here. Uptown Bertie found a cruising gear in her maidenbreaker and there's a puncher's chance that she keeps running when others start to feel the burn..

Most Likely: #3 Grace Hall 7-5 5th
Next Best: #6 Questing 5-2 WON ($6.40)
Best Value: #4 Uptown Bertie 20-1 7th
Exotics Use: #5 Via Villagio 8-1 3rd


11th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT

Most Likely: #7 Schillerette 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #3 G. A. Empress 15-1 7th
Next Best: #1 Love Stanza Chance 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 City Scamper 15-1 9th


<$100 P4 Play:

8: 1-4-5-7
9: 1-2-8-9
10: 3-6
11: 1-3-5-7-8

4x4x2x5 = 160 x .50 = $80

$0.50 Pick 4 (1/2/6/2,5,12) Paid $75.10


Back-up:

8: 1-4-5-7
9: 2-8-9
10: 4
11: 1-3-7

4x3x1x3 = 36 x .50 = $18



ARLINGTON PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


7th: American St. Leger, 3+, 13.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Jakkalberry 9-5 WON ($5.20)
Next Best: #10 Zuider Zee 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #5 Lake Drop 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #11 Ioya Bigtime 9-2 2nd


8th: Secretariat (G1), 3yo, 10f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Silver Max 9-5 5th
Best Value: #7 Bayrir 6-1 WON ($8.40)
Next Best: #2 Summer Front 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 All Stormy 20-1 7th


9th: Hatoof, 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Lady Candidate 6-1 6th
Best Value: #10 Soonerette 10-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Leading Astray 4-1 WON ($6.80)
Exotics Use: #1 Imposing Grace 12-1 8th


10th: Beverly D. (G1), F&M-3+, 9.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Marketing Mix 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Mystical Star 6-1 8th
Next Best: #1 Kapitale 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Aruna 7-2 10th


11th: Arlington Millon (G1), 3+, 10f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #9 Crackerjack King 5-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Boisterous 4-1 9th
Best Value: #5 Colombian 8-1 3rd-DH
Exotics Use: #6 Treasure Beach 6-1 6th


<$100 P5 Play:

7: 8-10
8: 7-8
9: 1-2-3-7-10
10: 1-2-5-7-8
11: 2-9

2x2x5x5x2 = 200 x .50 = $100


Good luck!
Steve

[tywizard]

Steve - Any thoughts on Cozetti in the Secretariat?

[Alabama Stakes]

steve, do you have like 30 hours a day instead of the 24 the rest of us have ? where the **** do you get all the time to come up with all these good opinions as well as do all the other ****ing things you do....can I know ? The kicker is that you ain't a kid any more either.

[rpncaine]

I think there has to be two of him... he has a twin that we've never seen.

[Kasept]

SAR SCR/CHG'S

[Kasept]

AP SCR/CHG'S

[ScottJ]

Steve - Was watching the Sword Dancer Invitational on the home television feed and when they crossed under the wire on the turf course, I could have sworn that you were right there on the turf course (black suit) watching the action. Was that you with the close up view?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by ScottJ

Steve - Was watching the Sword Dancer Invitational on the home television feed and when they crossed under the wire on the turf course, I could have sworn that you were right there on the turf course (black suit) watching the action. Was that you with the close up view?

Yes..

[Bogey]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Yes..

Now bring this PK5 home. BOL

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by tywizard

Steve - Any thoughts on Cozetti in the Secretariat?

Ty.. Sorry to not get to this early today. I thought he'd be about 6th in there..

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

steve, do you have like 30 hours a day instead of the 24 the rest of us have ? where the **** do you get all the time to come up with all these good opinions as well as do all the other ****ing things you do....can I know ? The kicker is that you ain't a kid any more either.

Originally Posted by rpncaine

I think there has to be two of him... he has a twin that we've never seen.

Very kind.. THX. It's an intense 7 week run and I'm happy to what I can to enhance it.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Bogey

Now bring this PK5 home. BOL

Uggh.. THX Gus. Delighted for Romans and his team, Dominguez and the Vaccarrezas but I never envisioned that Little Mike would be able to steal that the way he did.

Hope everyone enjoyed the excellent day of action and did well. Was an incredibly beautiful afternoon at Saratoga with a great crowd and obviously a couple of dominant stakes performances. Settling in preparing for tomorrow!

[MISTERGEE]

Steve, just wondering do you feel you like to handicap the beginning of the meet or later when they all have a race or two over the track? Just wondering, I always come up starting this week and seem to do better when they have some local form, aside our neighbors to the north in Parkland FLA, the owners ot the amazing Little Mike

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by MISTERGEE

Steve, just wondering do you feel you like to handicap the beginning of the meet or later when they all have a race or two over the track? Just wondering, I always come up starting this week and seem to do better when they have some local form, aside our neighbors to the north in Parkland FLA, the owners ot the amazing Little Mike

Don't have a preference.. Have had great starts to meets, mediocre starts, dreadful starts. Just dig in, 'cap & play. I know a lot of people like to give it a week, two weeks before playing. See you next week?