Pletcher

[Calzone Lord]

What is his record when he runs a horse in a Graded Stakes race off of 14 days or less rest?

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

What is his record when he runs a horse in a Graded Stakes race off of 14 days or less rest?

0 for 0?

[blackthroatedwind]

1 for 11 with a $0.83 ROI. Caixa Eletronica, in this year's True North, is the lone winner. 5 finished in the money.

That's over the last five years.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

1 for 11 with a $0.83 ROI. Caixa Eletronica, in this year's True North, is the lone winner. 5 finished in the money.

That's over the last five years.

Thanks.

[Danzig]

and he's a probable future hall of famer? that's awful.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Danzig

and he's a probable future hall of famer? that's awful.

I didn't have Formulator available to look up the stats -- but one thing I knew is that Pletcher is a student of himself.

This is what Pletcher's stats looked like for his entire career at the end of 1999.




His horses had just a $1.44 ROI with normal rest -- basically losing double the takeout from a sample size of almost a thousand races.

His horses who had more than 30 days off since their last start had produced a 7% profit from a sample size of just over 500 races.

Pletcher started saying in interviews that his horses run better when he gives them more time between starts. I don't know if he based that on the stats above or he based it on less statistically oriented observations.

He has a horse running in the Fayette off of two weeks rest this Saturday -- obviously he's only running it because he feels it is a polytrack specialist and he has no other Poly options to wait for with that horse.

Thus, the horse Saturday is very well meant... but it has to be well meant in order for him to start it against his own established MO

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I didn't have Formulator available to look up the stats -- but one thing I knew is that Pletcher is a student of himself.

This is what Pletcher's stats looked like for his entire career at the end of 1999.




His horses had just a $1.44 ROI with normal rest -- basically losing double the takeout from a sample size of almost a thousand races.

His horses who had more than 30 days off since their last start had produced a 7% profit from a sample size of just over 500 races.

Pletcher started saying in interviews that his horses run better when he gives them more time between starts. I don't know if he based that on the stats above or he based it on less statistically oriented observations.

He has a horse running in the Fayette off of two weeks rest this Saturday -- obviously he's only running it because he feels it is a polytrack specialist and he has no other Poly options to wait for with that horse.

Thus, the horse Saturday is very well meant... but it has to be well meant in order for him to start it against his own established MO

where does that percentage fit in compared to others? is that something you use when handicapping?
for the poly horse-how would you weigh the info? he's starting a horse because there may not be another race in the offing-but you know he typically doesn't do well on quicker run backs. so would you be more inclined to say bet against on him, knowing pletchers record?

[Calzone Lord]

Trainers all have strengths and weaknesses...sometimes they know them, most of the time they don't.

It's better for bettors when trainers don't know their strength and weaknesses and continue to train, handle, and place horses the same way as they have in the past with no adjustments to their approach.

Pletcher very rarely goes against his MO. He's 1-for-11 with an $0.83 ROI over the last five years when he does. But he also had four others finish in the money.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

ive never seen him as excited as when rags to riches won the belmont.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

ive never seen him as excited as when rags to riches won the belmont.

that was an exciting race. i was hollering 'come on rags'-and i never root for a pletcher horse. but a filly against colts, i'll pull for the filly just about every time.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

ive never seen him as excited as when rags to riches won the belmont.

Rags To Riches prior start was the Kentucky Oaks.

She was a 36 day layoff.

[Calzone Lord]

1-for-12 now.

Salto finished 4th as the 3-to-2 post time favorite in the Fayette.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Trainers all have strengths and weaknesses...sometimes they know them, most of the time they don't.

It's better for bettors when trainers don't know their strength and weaknesses and continue to train, handle, and place horses the same way as they have in the past with no adjustments to their approach.

Pletcher very rarely goes against his MO. He's 1-for-11 with an $0.83 ROI over the last five years when he does. But he also had four others finish in the money.

I tell Maker every time he has firster (unless it is a route at TW) how much he sucks with FTS's.

[outofthebox]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

I tell Maker every time he has firster (unless it is a route at TW) how much he sucks with FTS's.

I'm bad with first timers too. I know it's a weakness...

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by outofthebox

I'm bad with first timers too. I know it's a weakness...

It's not a weakness if it helps the horse's longevity. I think pretty much anyone would rather their horse not win first time out if the horse would have a longer career as a result.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

It's not a weakness if it helps the horse's longevity. I think pretty much anyone would rather their horse not win first time out if the horse would have a longer career as a result.

However many owners seem to prefer trainers that win 1st out over those that let their horses develop properly.