11/2 (SA): Breeders' Cup (Day 1)

[Kasept]

It's been an unusual week in California given the circumstances on the East Coast and as I've said on the air, glee over the Cup appears well tempered. That said, it's time for the annual Breeders' Cup pep talk..

Whether wildly successful or not, your ability as a horseplayer won't be forever defined over these next 48 hours. We have unique opportunities in the Cup with a chance to be rewarded for creative thinking and audacious risk-taking. Some will come away delighted and some maddeningly frustrated, but all should approach these races as the curious annual puzzles they've become. No matter how well you 'handicap' the races, fields this deep and mysterious will produce several nearly unforeseeable results. Remember that you could be 0 for 14 going into Saturday's finale and get it all back and more in the 2 minutes and 2 seconds it takes to run Saturday's Classic...

Spend as freely as you can afford, get a little lucky, and here's hoping that everyone gets something that fills their account and makes them proud. It's again been a pleasure trying to bring the flavor of the Cup to everyone listening, and I hope there was something offered that you can convert into winning tickets. Thanks to Santa Anita, ATR's sponsors and everyone who contributed so generously to the shows.. Best of luck this weekend!


SANTA ANITA -- BREEDERS' CUP DAY ONE


POST-SCRATCHES


SCR NOTE: JWhile the SCR of Super Ninety Nine from the Juvy Sprint is enormous, be aware that #15 Infanta Branca (15-1) DRAWS IN to the Juvy Filly Turf. Nick Luck thought she was not without chance for a board hit at big odds..


1st: ALW/N1X, 3+, 9f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Super compelling start to the weekend with a rasher of mid-priced 'shots to play with to counter ML fave Saint Loup (5-2)..

Most Likely: #1 Press Baron 6-1 3rd
Best Value: #3 Segway 8-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Te Rapa 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Big Bane Theory 8-1 WON ($12.20)


2nd: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #9 Magical Band 8-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Big Tiz 2-1 WON ($3.80)
Exotics Use: #2 Conkate 8-1 4th
Super Add: #10 Miss Oops 8-1 2nd


3rd: ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Though SA main has been his best surface by far, it's hard to embrace fave Got Even too enthusiastically noting how previous best efforts have seen him regress. Quirky group, which sees 7 of the 12 cutting back, includes 3yo debut of Reddam/O'Neill's Basmati (!) who has been working steadily..

Best Value: #7 Macho Dorado 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Basmati 4-1 WON ($17.60)
Exotics Use: #1 Got Even 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Northern Iowa 6-1 4th


4th: BC Juvenile Sprint, 2yo, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

Hard to look past the obvious Baffert (Super Ninety Nine SCR'D) and Hess (Merit Man) faves here, though Sweet Shirley Mae was facing the summer's best early 2yo filly this summer at the Spa in So Many Ways. I rarely write it this way, but if Super Ninety Nine is above 2-1, he's Best Value and then some based on his weekend work and Baffert's reliability in a setting like this. Those with ultra narrow P5 budgets should consider him as a single..

Most Likely: #3 Merit Man 8-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Sweet Shirley Mae 4-1 4th
Best Value: #2 Ceiling Kitty 12-1 5th
Super Add: #1 Hightail 8-1 WON ($32.80)


5th: BC Marathon (G2), 3+, 14f (P3, DD)

Hard not to shrug shoulders and say this is just a silly race..

Most Likely: #1 Atigun 9-2 3rd
Best Value: #14 Juniper Pass 30-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Not Abroad 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #10 Eldaafer 8-1 7th


<$75 P5 Play:

1: 1-3-4-8
2: 7-9
3: 5-6-7
4: 3-7
5: 1-7-14

4x2x3x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72


6th: BC Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1), 2yo-F, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Sky Lantern is a very accomplished filly and if the best of the North American contingent expects to beat her they will have to be perfect. ATR conversations have been exposing you to Spring Venture since her Natalma score in September. Logical alternative..

Most Likely: #3 Sky Lantern 3-1 8th
Next Best: #5 Spring Venture 5-1 13th
Best Value: #1 Kitten's Point 12-1 12th
Exotics Use: #7 Oscar Party 20-1 14th


7th: BC Juvenile Fillies (G1), 2yo-F, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Casse's 'other' Spring at Last filly faces a task here against accomplished dirt fillies, but the preponderance of speed sets it up for her run. You can always cover the obvious faves in the multis, but at anything close to her 15-1, she's a fun horse to play with..

Best Value: #3 Spring in the Air 15-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Beholder 5-2 WON ($9.80)
Exotics Use: #2 Executiveprivilege 2-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 Broken Spell 20-1 6th


8th: BC Filly & Mare Turf, F&M-3+, 10f-T (P3, DD)

Two Euro faves own clear edge. Proctor & Marketing Mix demand some respect and despite interrupted fall, Lady of Shamrock may come back running based on views of top clockers..

Most Likely: #4 The Fugue 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #10 Ridasiyna 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #9 Marketing Mix 9-2 2nd
Best Value: #6 Lady of Shamrock 12-1 5th


9th: BC Distaff (G1), F&M-3+, 9f (DD)

A remarkable edition of this event for any number of reasons including a pair of undefeated Juvenile Champions and a defending winner. Pace scenario gives real edge to Royal Delta who can stay as close as Smith chooses while Questing and whoever attends her pace fight it out. Awesome Feather has astounded with every step since the career threatening injury and potential for one more stunner makes her first alternative to Mott's '11 heroine. After that, almost any combination can line up..

Most Likely: #6 Royal Delta 9-5 WON ($5.40)
Next Best: #5 Awesome Feather 3-1 6th
Best Value: #1 Grace Hall 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Include Me Out 15-1 3rd


<$50 P4 Play:

6: 1-3-5
7: 1-2-3
8: 4-9-10
9: 5-6

3x3x3x2 = $54 ($27 for .50)


<$150 P6 Play:

4: 3
5: 1-7-14
6: 3-5
7: 1-3
8: 4-9-10
9: 5-6

1x3x2x2x3x2 = 72 X $2 = $144


10th: Twilight Derby (G2), 3yo, 9f-T (Super Hi-5)

Best Value: #4 Smart Ellis 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Old Time Hockey 6-1 7th
Exotics Use: #7 Grandeur 5-2 WON ($12.60)
Super Add: #9 Huntsville 15-1 8th


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-2-3
8: 4-9-10
9: 5-6
10: 2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9

3x3x2x8 = 144 x .50 = $72


Good luck!
Steve

[ADJMK]

Pretty much agree with all your picks . Hopefully we will have lots of "gunpowder" left for Sat. Didn't realize there were 2 late P4's. Smart Ellis in the 10th had a terrible trip in the DMR Derby and he we will be a lot higher than the 4-1 he was there.

[dino]

Steve,

Thanks for all your hard work. This has been a excellent week for the show.

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Love the BC prep talk! looking forward to today & tomorrow

[herkhorse]

Thanks Steve, listening to replay on TV

Good Luck!

[Round Pen]

Seriously I have a really hard time handicapping the 6th and 7th knowing how strong my Bias Is. But that being said I think both our fillies have a huge shot today so I am going to work around them in some in expensive Pic 3' and pic 4's. Also with all the buzz about Spring in the Air I don't think we get close to her ML 15-1. Plus I looked at the Sheets and her last race is faster than all the Favorites throwing out the freakinsh 6f race of Beholders.

Pic 3
6th---5
7th---3
8th---All
1x1x12= $12

Pic 4
6th---5
7th---3
8th---2,4,5,6,8,9,11
9th---5,6
1x1x7x2= $14

Good Luck everyone make lots of money

[Kasept]

SA/BC SCR/CHG'S

[ADJMK]

Hope you bet Basmati after talking about him this am with Gus. I keyed Gus's best bet and stupidly didn't reverse the exacta. Here's hoping you get through the next 2 races and get the P5 to get you rolling.

[ADJMK]

ROYAL DELTA-- that's a new name for Champ

[luv2gambl]

Steve,

I really enjoyed your coverage this week. It was great to have Sirius carry more of your hours live. I was always a fan of Basmati. It was great to hear you talk about him the last few days. Had a really great score on him today. Thanks for all your efforts...

[luv2gambl]

I think I over used the word "great". But it was a pretty special day and many beverages involved after winning. (-: