Pinnacle Breeders Cup Classic Odds

[Scav]

Horses: Breeders' Cup
Breeders' Cup Classic
Sat 11/4 Odds To Win - All Bets Are Action

101 Bernardini +197
102 Lava Man +518
103 Invasor +626
104 Shirocco +1266
105 David Junior +1639
106 Sun King +1600
107 Lawyer Ron +2888
108 Dylan Thomas +1770
110 Perfect Drift +4287
111 Giacomo +5000
112 Suave +5000
113 Second Of June +2759
114 Point Determined +5000
115 Brother Derek +4341
116 Super Frolic +5000
117 Strong Contender +2633
118 Bright One +4424
119 Flower Alley +5000

[Scav]

If you believe in Bernie, you should unload on this 2-1, becuase you won't get that on BC day if he wins the JGCC impressively

[1st_Saturday_in_May]

Anyone think that Sun King will be more or less than 16/1 at post time or right around there? I think that he is probably the best pure closer in the field and the pace could be pretty quick because I see Bright One running.

[DiscreetCat=Monster]

Originally Posted by 1st_Saturday_in_May

Anyone think that Sun King will be more or less than 16/1 at post time or right around there? I think that he is probably the best pure closer in the field and the pace could be pretty quick because I see Bright One running.

I would take nothing less than 20-1 on Sun King

Originally Posted by Scav

If you believe in Bernie, you should unload on this 2-1, becuase you won't get that on BC day if he wins the JGCC impressively

Depends on who else is in the field and their next races as to what Berni will be also. No way I bet a 3 yo in the Classic at 2-1. JGCC or not.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Scav

If you believe in Bernie, you should unload on this 2-1, becuase you won't get that on BC day if he wins the JGCC impressively

Well, if you want to unload, you might as well unload on the 2.2-1 at VIPsports or its sister, BetGameday.com.

IMO, 2.2-1 is not nearly enough, though. There is probably at least a 25% chance that Bernardini doesn't even start in the BCC. And there's AT LEAST a 25% chance that he loses the JCGC, in which case his BCC odds will almost certainly be greater than 2-1. But it all together, and I'd need at least 4-1 on Bernardini now to consider making a BCC future bet on him.

Here are the futures at VIP/Sports Gameday. Many are better than Pinnacle's odds, but the only one I'm sure I like is the 50-1 on Second of June. Whoever asked for 20-1 on Sun King, it's there.

Bernadini 11 to 5
Invasor 7 to 1
Lava Man 6 to 1
Discreet Cat 20 to 1
David Junior 10 to 1
Suave 50 to 1
Brother Derek 30 to 1
Flower Alley 50 to 1
Jazil 25 to 1
Bright One 25 to 1
lawyer Ron 25 to 1
Sun King 20 to 1
Perfect Drift 50 to 1
Seek Gold 40 to 1
Giacomo 40 to 1
Stevie Wonderboy 30 to 1
Buzzards Bay 60 to 1
Premium Tap 40 to 1
Second of June 50 to 1
Cindago 40 to 1
Bob and John 30 to 1
Dylan Thomas 12 to 1
Shirroco 10 to 1
GOULDINGS GREEN 40 to 1
Wanderin Boy 25 to 1


--Dunbar

he is yet to race aginst older horses, much less defeat one , and you think two to one is a good bet??

i don't.

[Scav]

Paul, if you don't Bernie will smoke older, you need to learn how to watch a race. I have been betting for 15 years, actually watching races for 5, and watched a TON of video of older 'great' horses. Bernandini has the best stride and best action out of any of them. I hope that he sticks around for a 4 year old campaign so I can figure out a place to see him live, given his connections, I think it is extremely possible

[Cajungator26]

Shoot, you can get the winner of the race for 50-1. I'll take that.

[1st_Saturday_in_May]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Shoot, you can get the winner of the race for 50-1. I'll take that.

He'll hang ... he always does

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by 1st_Saturday_in_May

He'll hang ... he always does

Be prepared to eat crow.

[Dunbar]

TheGreek.com now has its Classic future odds back up. (TheGreek is the book-formerly-known-as-Olympic). Bernardini is 2.15-1 and Lava Man is 7-1, both of which are better than what either Pinnacle or VIPsports has to offer:

1501 Bernardini +215
1502 Invasor +705
1503 Lava Man +705
1504 Shirocco +1015
1505 Dylan Thomas +1525
1506 David Junior +1425
1507 Strong Contender +2250
1508 Discreet Cat +2050
1509 Sun King +1525
1510 Premium Tap +3250
1512 Jazil +3250
1513 Seek Gold +3250
1514 Lawyer Ron +3050
1515 Second Of June +3050
1516 Giacomo +4550
1517 Brass Hat +4550
1518 Stevie Wonderboy +5050
1519 Suave +5050
1520 Super Frolic +5050
1521 Perfect Drift +4550
1523 Point Determined +6050

--Dunbar

[Scav]

Super Froilic at 50/1 is a great wager IMO

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Scav

Super Froilic at 50/1 is a great wager IMO

Why? You'll be able to get that on BC Day when you are assured of him being in the field.

[Scav]

Not when he goes and beats Lava Man in the Goodward, if he runs in it. Froilic has quietly been running alright and has had some things not go his way, this horse could run absolutlely huge in the Goodward and the he becomes 5th choice on BC Day

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Scav

Not when he goes and beats Lava Man in the Goodward, if he runs in it. Froilic has quietly been running already and has had some things not go his way, this horse could run absolutlely huge in the Goodward and the he becomes 5th choice on BC Day

Think of it this way. Instead of betting $10 in this pool bet that $10 on him in the Goodwood where he'll be like 20-1. If you win then take half that $200 and bet it on him in the Classic at 12-1. If he wins you wind up winning $1,300 instead of $500 if you bet this pool. If he wins the Goodwood and loses the Classic you are still up $90. If he loses the Goodwood then you lose your $10 but can still get the 50-1 at the Classic. Most likely you'll wind up losing $10 in both the Goodwood and the Classic on a nag of a horse but isn't that better than losing it in a future bet because he gets injured?

[Scav]

I kinda like this philosophy, I am not making this wager, but knowledge is power, Thanks Sniper, good info right there

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Think of it this way. Instead of betting $10 in this pool bet that $10 on him in the Goodwood where he'll be like 20-1. If you win then take half that $200 and bet it on him in the Classic at 12-1. If he wins you wind up winning $1,300 instead of $500 if you bet this pool. If he wins the Goodwood and loses the Classic you are still up $90. If he loses the Goodwood then you lose your $10 but can still get the 50-1 at the Classic. Most likely you'll wind up losing $10 in both the Goodwood and the Classic on a nag of a horse but isn't that better than losing it in a future bet because he gets injured?

I agree with Scav that you are looking at it in a sharp way. I don't agree with your numbers, though. I think Super Frolic will be more like 10-1 then 20-1 in the Goodwood. And if he wins it, he will be more like 5-1 than 12-1 in the BCC. Even using my numbers, it makes sense to parlay the bet as you suggested. The only way it could come out worse than the future bet would be for Super Frolic to win the Goodwood and Bernardini to NOT run in the BCC. Then SF would probably go off at less than 5-1, and you would not be getting the 50-1 of the future bet.

That last effect is not negligible. Part of the reason I liked 50-1 on Second of June is the uncertainty about whether Bernardini will run. If I was 100% sure Bernardini would run, I would probably not like SOJ at 50-1.

--Dunbar

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I agree with Scav that you are looking at it in a sharp way. I don't agree with your numbers, though. I think Super Frolic will be more like 10-1 then 20-1 in the Goodwood. And if he wins it, he will be more like 5-1 than 12-1 in the BCC. Even using my numbers, it makes sense to parlay the bet as you suggested. The only way it could come out worse than the future bet would be for Super Frolic to win the Goodwood and Bernardini to NOT run in the BCC. Then SF would probably go off at less than 5-1, and you would not be getting the 50-1 of the future bet.

That last effect is not negligible. Part of the reason I liked 50-1 on Second of June is the uncertainty about whether Bernardini will run. If I was 100% sure Bernardini would run, I would probably not like SOJ at 50-1.

--Dunbar

I haven't paid much attention to who is going to the Goodwood so may be off on my 20-1 estimate but figured everyone tried to beat Lava Man and let him go off at even money in the Pacific Classic so it won't happen again. Super Frolic was 10-1 there and doesn't seem any more likely to beat Lava Man this time plus Lava Man doesn't look as susceptible as he did coming off the Hollywood Gold Cup. He'll probably wind up in the middle of our estimates and go off at 15-1.