Saturday's 2nd at Hollywood

Calzone Lord · #1 11-30-2012, 02:20 PM

All 8 horses in the field are 1st time starters.

It's pretty uncommon to see a field of nothing but debuters on a Saturday card, at a major circuit, in freaking December.

But so it goes with the trend of fewer starts and waiting longer to debut horses.

Interestingly, the morning line favorite is a Mike Puype horse who I would have expected to go off at least 10/1 on the basis of what I see on paper ... not to mention that the horse appeared to be nothing special in her under-tack work.

There is another Puype who is 20/1 on the ML ... and that one is a daughter of Dehere.

MISTERGEE · #2 11-30-2012, 04:15 PM

black witch a 400k purchase from a 10 k stud looks like will get the $ ?

Calzone Lord · #3 11-30-2012, 04:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MISTERGEE

black witch a 400k purchase from a 10 k stud looks like will get the $ ?

Logically, yes.

I just don't get the morning line at all.

Not only does the ML favorite look 10/1 on paper ... but the joint second choices are from the barn of Ron Ellis (very rarely wins with debuters) and Mike Ewing (not exactly a high profile barn)

I haven't looked at any workout reports ... but the morning line is just plain weird.

There is a daughter of Olympic Charmer in there -- she was fast as hell -- but considering the sire is Duke of Marmalade and the trainer is Ron McAnally... I don't expect it to take money at all.

Linny · #4 11-30-2012, 09:49 PM

Duke of Marmalade has offspring?

Calzone Lord · #5 11-30-2012, 09:59 PM

Rudeboyelvis · #6 11-30-2012, 10:14 PM

No worries. Baffert will be 3-5 and win by 10 lengths. Too bad he doesn't have an uncoupled entry that missed a length first out with an 81 beyer so Mike Smith can get the mount and stiff him to get the price horse home.

Calzone Lord · #7 11-30-2012, 10:34 PM

Yeah, I'm a huge fan of Dehere debuters. That's the only thing keeping me even remotely interested about this odd race.

The morning line just seems illogical and bizarre. I don't know if maybe he based it on workout reports or what?

Bigsmc · #8 12-01-2012, 07:50 AM

I like Myntz Connection a lot. The only thing stopping me is Ron Ellis's horrible record with firsters.

Her dam Zealous Connection was blazing fast. She won all three of her starts wire to wire, including the Gr 2 Landaluce in her second lifetime start.

http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbP...try=USA&race=8

All but 1 of her 8 sibs are winners. A couple stakes winners. Sibs have bankrolled over $1mil sprinting.

Candy Ride is more than adequate with firsters and aw sprinters.

She just has to overcome a trainer that doesn't have getting them ready for their first start as a priority.

Perrault Robbed · #9 12-01-2012, 01:43 PM

I believe Puype has had 2 first timers win this meet at BHP, which is a lot for him. He had Smith on one a couple of weeks ago that looked like a winner at like 15-1 but hung the last 100 yards. It is interesting that Smith is aboard on the Dehere 20-1 and Gryder is on the ML 3-1. How is Dehere doing this year as a sire and broodmare sire of firsters? He is getting up there in years, and it seems out on the west coast at least that every first time starter he is associated with is 20-1 ML. He had one last Sunday in the Maiden Claimer finale at BHP out of a poor first timer barn that completed the super at like 20-1.

#10 12-01-2012, 02:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Yeah, I'm a huge fan of Dehere debuters. That's the only thing keeping me even remotely interested about this odd race.

The morning line just seems illogical and bizarre. I don't know if maybe he based it on workout reports or what?

This horse doesnt have any out of the gate workouts and he has a large gap in between workouts from July 26th to Sep 30th which would have probably contributed to the higher odds.

Kasept · #11 12-01-2012, 03:01 PM

HARRINGTON'S NATIONAL TURF REPORT FOR THE RACE

GIFT RECEIPT

Nov 24 HOL 5 :59.4HG M FT B+ Looked fast by the stands while drawing clear from a barnmate in a speedy 22.4, 34.1, 45.2 galloping out with energy in 58.2. Should flash speed, for sure.---Grade: B+

Nov 17 HOL 0 :00H M FT B Was missed off the official tab but worked at least 4f going (think she went 5f) 24.1, 48.2 without visible pressure. Solid moving sort.---Grade: B

UNSEEN VISITOR

Nov 24 HOL 5 1:00.2H M FT B- Gryder up; steady drill with a mate going heads up late in 35.3, 100.3 never really all out for Puype. Seems a fit here.---Grade: B-

Nov 15 HOL 5 1:00.3H M FT B- Aaron aboard for Puype; looked steady here moving up on a pair of maiden mates here in 35.3, 100.1 out clear in 114.0. Something here.---Grade: B-

CHARM CATCHER

Nov 28 HOL 4 :48.2HG M FT C+ Chased Torre Faro (Powell) all the way while asked along steadily here in 24.2, 48.3. Let's give this one an outing or two.---Grade: C+

Nov 20 HOL 6 1:14H M FT C Under some late sticks here going the last 3f in 37.1 doing her utmost to the line. Let's see some efforts over the track.---Grade: C

MYNTZ CONNECTION

Nov 23 HOL 6 1:13.4H M FT B+ Again full of run to the mile pole in 37.0, 101.3, 113.3 galloping out strongly around the turn in 127.1. Big late kick here; Talamo up.---Grade: B+

Nov 15 HOL 6 1:13.4HG M FT B+ Under restraint early in 25.0, 37.0 then leveled out big time around the turn flying along in 48.3, 100.1 (huge 23.1 turn time) basically galloping out in 113.0 out again 128.0. Not super fast early but clearly has a big late kick; Talamo aboard.---Grade: B+

BLACK WITCH

Nov 21 SA 4 :48.2H M FT B- Had this drill 5f from short pole to short pole in 24.3, 101.2 with barnmate Castaway rider just pointing this one in the right direction late.---Grade: B-

Nov 15 SA 6 1:13.4HG M FT B- Not sure how fast this one is but was moving well late after going by a Hendricks trainee (who got up after a 1/2 mile) working on 24.1, 48.2, 113.3. Solid in here.---Grade: B-

ZIA ZIA ZIA

Nov 16 HOL 5 1:00.4H M FT B Mike Smith up; waited on barnmate Flash Royale in 101.0, never really set down in this sharp looking spin. Some stride here.---Grade: B

Nov 10 HOL 5 1:00.1H M FT B Smith up; waited on barnmates Flash Royale and No Name Needed through the lane in 35.1, 100.1. Solid spin.---Grade: B

SUN KISS

Nov 25 HOL 6 1:15H M FT C+ Second best to barnmate Kings Giant late coaxed along to the line in 49.0, 115.0. Maybe down the line.---Grade: C+

Nov 18 HOL 4 :49HG M FT C+ Broke slowly with barnmate Kings Giant and Money Tree (O' Callaghan) staying behind those two throughout in 24.3, 49.0 working on in 101.3 (still 1 back). Let's see some racing.---Grade: C+

EPISTEMOLOGY

Nov 19 HOL 5 1:01.3HG M FT C+ Not real fast early then went along evenly while clear from a modest barnmate in 24.2, 35.4, 101.0. Bit of an even keeled sort.---Grade: C+

Nov 12 HOL 5 1:02.3HG M FT C+ Slow early with a maiden mate then worked on under coaxing in 25.0, 37.0, 101.3. Even keeled sort.---Grade: C+

Rupert Pupkin · #12 12-01-2012, 03:48 PM

I'm surprised to see that Ron Ellis is 0 for 22 over the last year or two with his first-time starters. He used to do very well with first-timers. I think he was always around 15-20% with first-timers in the past. Just off the top of my head over the last several years I can think of several of his debuters winning. He won first-time out with Believe in Hope, Hopeful Union, Kapalua Bay, Declan's Moon, etc. If I had another 10 minutes to think about it, I could probably come up with another 5 or 6. Ron had a first-timer about two weeks ago that probably should have won but got beaten by a nose.

Calzone Lord · #13 12-01-2012, 04:08 PM

They bet the Ellis horse to the 8/5 favorite and he got a dream run up the rail (which has been very good at HP this meet) and held them safe.

The obvious Baffert debuter didn't get bet at all -- was a long way last early -- had to make a sweeping five wide move the entire way around the far turn and finished 2nd at 7/2.

The Dehere debuter could only manage 3rd at 11/1 odds.

The morning line favorite was never a factor.

Rupert Pupkin · #14 12-01-2012, 04:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

They bet the Ellis horse to the 8/5 favorite and he got a dream run up the rail (which has been very good at HP this meet) and held them safe.

The obvious Baffert debuter didn't get bet at all -- was a long way last early -- had to make a sweeping five wide move the entire way around the far turn and finished 2nd at 7/2.

The Dehere debuter could only manage 3rd at 11/1 odds.

The morning line favorite was never a factor.

I don't think the Baffert filly was fully cranked up. His debuters ususually have about 15 works and usually 7 or 8 of the works are 5 and 6 furlongs. This filly only had 8 works total, and only 3 of the works were 5 furlongs or longer.