12/8: Aqueduct ($76k C/O); Gulfstream (5th-10th); Hollywood (5th-10th)

[Kasept]

Aqueduct carryover proved unhittable Friday tripping a double pot for Saturday of more than $76k. The sequence was one of those where the winners weren't utterly impossible, but stringing them together appropriately was as evidenced by the $1 P3's of $416.50 (4-6), $448.00 (5-7), $157.00 (6-8) & $221.00 (7-9). The late .50 P4 returned $797.00.

One sidebar to the action Friday was watching Knock Quietly push his earnings to $128,401 finishing 2nd for the 9th time in 30 starts. The Schwartz Family's Quiet American 4yo looked poised to go by River Tune in the final yards of the nightcap, getting his head in front for a jump, before ultimately falling short at the wire.

Besides the NY carryover pool -- which is tweaked by off turf moves for the 4th, 7th and 9th -- there's a nice P5 set at Gulfstream and the Starlet/Bayakoa slate at Hollywood!


AQUEDUCT


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 1m-OFF THE TURF (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #12 Mrs. Calabash 4-5 WON ($5.90)
Next Best: #10 Tahima 6-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Maggie R 15-1 8th
Exotics Use: #2 He Loves Me More 5-2 4th


5th: CLM, 3+, 1m (G/S, P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Acadian Blues 10-1 8th
Next Best: #7 Willy Pay 8-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Red Jack 2-1 4th
Super Add: #5 Jet Set Cat 4-1 3rd


6th: MSW, 2yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Purse levels have clearly kept some of these pedigreed 2yo's in New York as opposed to heading to Florida. That includes Elnaawi (Street Sense), $500k half to To Honor and Serve (Bernardini) from KMc/Shadwell, and Souper Funny (Albertrani), Mrs. Weber's Distorted Humor homebred out of Zoftig, thereby a half to Zo Impressive (Hard Spun) and Zaftig (Gone West). Meanwhile, Mudflats (Kenneally) and Malachite (Donk) have faced serious winners in their prior efforts and loom the ones to beat..

Most Likely: #8 Mudflats 2-1 WON ($4.20)
Next Best: #7 Malachite 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Kid Lightening 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Elnaawi 7-2 3rd


7th: NY-OC/N1X, 3+, 1m-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #14 Towering Moon 6-5 3rd
Best Value: #7 Anaphylaxis 12-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Roaring Conquest 15-1 7th
Exotics Use: #15 Southbeachsandy 4-1 6th


8th: 107th Queens County, 3+, 9f (DD)

Most Likely: #5 San Pablo 3-5 WON ($2.40)
Best Value: #1 Indy Scent 15-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Isn't He Perfect 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Gallant Fields 4-1 2nd


9th: CLM, 3+, 1m-OFF THE TURF

Most Likely: #15 Political Justice 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #10 Late Night Action 7-2 5th
Best Value: #14 Matt and Jesse 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #16 Terminus 3-1 WON ($13.00)


<$150 P6 Play:

4: 10-12
5: 1-3-5-7
6: 5-6-7-8
7: 14
8: 5
9: 10-15

2x4x4x1x1x2 = 64 x $2 = $128


<$50 P4 Play:

6: 4-5-6-7-8
7: 7-14
8: 1-4-5-6
9: 10-15

5x2x4x2 = 80 x .50 = $40



GULFSTREAM PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: OC/N3X, 3+, 1m-T/36' (P6, P3, DD)

Very nice group..

Best Value: #8 Joes Blazing Aaron 8-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Little Bit O'Fun 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Big Blue Kitten 2-1 WON ($7.40)
Super Add: #1 Manchurian High 12-1 7th


6th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T/108' (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Bergerac 6-1 6th
Next Best: #10 Silver Rock 5-2 WON ($5.00)
Exotics Use: #1 Picou 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 Live in Joy 10-1 7th


7th: OC/N1X, 2yo, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Small P5 tix can single the Kenneally fave with some confidence..

Most Likely: #5 Pushthebuttonmax 2-1 5th
Best Value: #3 Narvaez 8-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Tulira Castle 3-1 WON ($10.20)
Exotics Use: #1 Uptown Anthem 6-1 3rd


8th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T/108' (P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Black Bird Rock 6-1 10th
Next Best: #1 Scenario Analysis 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 Star Torina 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #4 Sunlight Sonata 5-1 11th


9th: 33rd Sugar Swirl (G3), F&M-3+, 6f (DD)

Expecting some to SCR out of this per Mike Welsch..

SCR #3 Spectacular Sky which says Wolfson making Golden Mystery the principal speed..

Most Likely: #6 Dust and Diamonds 8-5 WON ($3.00)
Best Value: #1 Nakano 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Golden Mystery 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Sacristy 4-1 4th


10th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 1m-T/36' (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #6 Dixie Dear 3-1 4th
Best Value: #8 Tapit to Me 6-1 8th
Next Best: #11 Patrice Merion 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Will to Shine 8-1 3rd
Hi-5 Play: #12 Thus 5-1 WON ($13.80)


<$50 P5 Play:

6: 5-10
7: 3-5-7
8: 1-3-4-10
9: 1-2-6-7
10: 6

2x3x4x4x1 = 96 x .50 = $48


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3-5-7
8: 1-3-4-10
9: 1-2-6-7
10: 6-8

3x4x4x2 =96 x .50 = $48



HOLLYWOOD PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: Cal-OC/N1X, 3+, 7f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Master Chef 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #6 Tribe 5-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Dugan Bill 6-1 7th
Exotics Use: #8 Husband's Folly 3-1 WON ($7.80)


6th: 31st Bayakoa H. (G2), F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Inglorious a fave of mine but she's tough to take enthusiastically at 5-2..

Most Likely: #6 Charm the Maker 3-1 4th
Best Value: #3 Lady of Fifty 5-1 WON ($8.80)
Next Best: #8 Inglorious 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Class Included 5-1 7th


7th: MSW, 2yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Potentially important late season maiden group at tell all 7 panels. Debut of Moss homebred Mentor Cane (Mizzen Mast) will be closely watched as California dawn patrols make him a Classics candidate for Shirreffs. Baffert meanwhile debuts a pair for Gary and Mary West, the full brother of Zazu in Flashback, as well as Coastal Breeze, a $180k KEE '11 yearling by Empire Maker..

Most Likely: #9 Flashback 5-2 WON ($4.00)
Next Best: #4 Appealing Tale 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #2 Mentor Cane 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Coastal Breeze 8-1 4th


8th: S/ALW, 3+, 6f-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Klisz 12-1 WON ($8.60)
Next Best: #10 Baby Blake 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Rock Off 5-2 9th
Super Add: #5 Me Likey Mikey 5-1 8th


9th: 32nd Hollywood Starlet (G1), 2yo-F, 8.5f (DD)

Slightly surprising opportunity for Executiveprivilege to capture 2yo Filly Championship in this spot, but may face stiffest challenge from serious-looking stablemate Blonde Fog..

Most Likely: #6 Executiveprivilege 6-5 4th
Next Best: #4 Blonde Fog 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Renee's Titan 15-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Pure Fun 6-1 WON ($14.40)


10th: MSW, 2yo, 6f-T (Super Hi-5)

Deep looking group with several hot working firsters. Likely won't get in but be aware that Hollendorfer's #14 (AE) Hear the Ghost (Ghosyzapper) is a half to precocious 2008 2yo GSW Mani Bhavan (Storm Boot)..

Most Likely: #9 Will True Up 9-2 WON ($8.40)
Best Value: #8 Derringer 10-1 12th
Next Best: #5 Grand Giant 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Wind of Bosphorus 12-1 3rd
Hi-5 Play: #10 Say Ow 7-2 9th


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-4-9
8: 2-5-7-10
9: 4-6
10: 3-5-7-8-9-10

3x4x2x6 = 144 x .50 = $72


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

GP SCR/CHG'S

AQU SCR/CHG'S

HOL SCR/CHG'S

[Kasept]

AQU 7th: Roaring Conquest at 20-1 is prime to boost your exotics..

[Kasept]

AQU P6 pays to all but 11 & 14..

The MTO 14, Matt and Jesse -- running under Paulino Ortiz' name and with the 5# Ortiz -- is not completely impossible..

[casp0555]

Steve, not sure but I think the TW Player's Pool had some winning P6 tickets........is there anyway you could check on that?

[casp0555]

Originally Posted by casp0555

Steve, not sure but I think the TW Player's Pool had some winning P6 tickets........is there anyway you could check on that?

they did, best I can tell is 3 tickets 6 of 6, for almost $260K. I made a meager $25 investment (redboard alert) that will be profitable
Big thanks to Ed, Michael, and Patrick for the selections!!

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by casp0555

they did, best I can tell is 3 tickets 6 of 6, for almost $260K. I made a meager $25 investment (redboard alert) that will be profitable
Big thanks to Ed, Michael, and Patrick for the selections!!

Originally Posted by casp0555

Steve, not sure but I think the TW Player's Pool had some winning P6 tickets........is there anyway you could check on that?

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=49354