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#1
09-26-2006, 09:16 AM
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Best BC Classic future prices from several racebooks
Here are the best odds I could find from the 4 racebooks I checked:
Bernardini 2.2 Gameday Lava Man 7.05 Greek Invasor 7.05 Greek Shirocco 11.74 Pinny David Junior 16.39 Pinny Sun King 20 Gameday Lawyer Ron 30.5 Greek Dylan Thomas 17.7 Pinny Perfect Drift 50 Gameday Giacomo 50 Pinny Suave 50.5 Greek Second Of June 30.5 Greek Point Determined 60.5 Greek Brother Derek 43.41 Pinny Super Frolic 50.5 Greek Strong Contender 26.33 Pinny Bright One 35.73 Pinny Flower Alley 50 Gameday, Pinny Jazil 32.5 Greek Bright One 25 Gameday Seek Gold 40 Gameday Cindago 40 Gameday There are probably some gems in there, because taken together the odds make a line with 15% takeout. That's comparable to raceday. Of course, there are almost certainly some horses that will start in the Classic but are not on that list (and many on the list will not start in the Classic). But unless you think a horse not on the list will have a significant chance to win, the 15% takeout means that betting the futures has comparable "overhead" to betting on raceday. If you think the winner will very likely be one of the "Big 3", then betting all 3 should have value. If the actual (combined) chance of the winner coming from one of those 3 is greater than 56%, you'd have a good bet. --Dunbar
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson 
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#2
09-26-2006, 10:45 AM
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I wonder what Flower Alley was 3 months ago when he was already crowned Horse of the Year from some around here?
Strong Contender looks like the long shot with a good chance if he improves off his last race. I really liked the way he looked before and during the race.
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#6
09-26-2006, 01:36 PM
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Has Jazil even worked since going to the sidelines? I wouldn't take 400-1 on him. Bright One's stakes win was in W. Virginia so he better be 75-1 for me. Dylan Thomas and Schirrocco are unproven on dirt and also would need to be far higher for me to bite. I'm no fan of G2 level 3yo's moving up into G1 company vs. older but if Strong Contender is truly developing into the horse many thought he could be...hmmm. Three year olds have done OK in the Classic. Often the "big name 3yo" gets beaten in the Classic by a lesser light. Consider proud Truth, Concern, Cat Thief and Tiznow. Even Unbridled had gone winless since the Derby and was looking like a flukey Derby winner by late fall.
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#7
09-26-2006, 01:39 PM
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Quote:
You'll get to see Dylan Thomas over the dirt in two weeks, but you may also see those odds drop terribly low. 
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#8
09-26-2006, 05:10 PM
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Quote:
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#9
09-27-2006, 09:15 AM
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Quote:
Bernardini 2.25-1 Invasor 7.45-1 It's odd that TheGreek's odds on Bernardini would rise while the odds at Pinnacle have dropped to 1.72-1. --Dunbar
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
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#10
09-27-2006, 09:49 AM
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I just won't get it if Shirocco goes to dirt.
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The world's foremost expert on virtually everything on the Redskins 2010 season: "Im going to go out on a limb here. I say they make the playoffs."
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