Has any horse in history ever done less & was 12/1 to win the Derby two months out?

Calzone Lord · #1 03-04-2013, 07:25 PM

Flashback is monumentally overhyped.

Calzone Lord · #2 03-04-2013, 07:58 PM

Here is the extent of Flashback's career so far:

Start #1: He ran in an extremely fast paced 7f maiden race at Hollywood Park. Everyone collapsed late and he drew off as the last one standing.

Start #2: He faces just 3 other challengers. He is allowed a loose lead through fractions of 24.17 and 48.69 going 8.5f -- On the same card, Tritap and Handsome Mike hook up through fractions of 22.52 and 46.23 going 9 furlongs on dirt.

We are two months away, and he closed at odds of 12/1 to win the Derby.

He simply won a maiden race and beat a field of 3 others with an uncontested lead through slow early fractions. Has he run impressive figures? no. Has he had trips? no.

Calzone Lord · #3 03-04-2013, 08:18 PM

Orb at 12/1 is terrible value.

Truth be told, I'd rather have a bet on Flashback of the two, because at least you have a little more of a wildcard factor with Flashback.

pweizer · #4 03-04-2013, 08:21 PM

It doesn't look like Flashback is facing any killers in the San Felipe this Saturday where he will be odds on. If he wins (and I will certainly look to bet against), he will have much lower derby odds soon.

Paul

santana · #5 03-04-2013, 08:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Flashback is monumentally overhyped.

While i certainly respect your opinion, i think he looks like a really good horse so far, and when it really counts he will show up.....and yes , he is my pick as of now to win the Derby........

NTamm1215 · #6 03-04-2013, 08:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pweizer

It doesn't look like Flashback is facing any killers in the San Felipe this Saturday where he will be odds on. If he wins (and I will certainly look to bet against), he will have much lower derby odds soon.

Paul

Is Flashback even better than Goldencents? I'm sure he'll be favored Saturday but I am far from convinced.

The fact that Flashback went off the shortest price of any of the Baffert horses in the pool is comical.

santana · #7 03-04-2013, 08:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Is Flashback even better than Goldencents? I'm sure he'll be favored Saturday but I am far from convinced.

The fact that Flashback went off the shortest price of any of the Baffert horses in the pool is comical.

Which of Bafferts horses should have been a lower price ?

pweizer · #8 03-04-2013, 08:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Is Flashback even better than Goldencents? I'm sure he'll be favored Saturday but I am far from convinced.

The fact that Flashback went off the shortest price of any of the Baffert horses in the pool is comical.

Goldencents is certainly more established. I may be a little interested in Salutos Amigos.

Oh, and of the Bafferts, I would take Super 99 over Flashback at double the price all day long.

Paul

NTamm1215 · #9 03-04-2013, 08:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by santana

Which of Bafferts horses should have been a lower price ?

Super Ninety Nine for sure.

Calzone Lord · #10 03-04-2013, 08:58 PM

Based on what can be measured after just 2 starts, I don't see anything to suggest Flashback is a better horse than fellow Baffert Governor Charlie.

A lot of stable hype has been there with Flashback since the start of his career.

Linny · #11 03-04-2013, 09:35 PM

Verrazzano was favored and hasn't run in a stake yet.

Calzone Lord · #12 03-04-2013, 09:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Linny

Verrazzano was favored and hasn't run in a stake yet.

Yes, but his most recent race was fantastic.

A horse he beat by 16.5 lengths last time just won an entry level alw race on dirt at Gulfstream last Saturday.

His figure was huge on everyones numbers and the performance was confirmed.

With Flashback, it is more about stable buzz and how he trains.

blackthroatedwind · #13 03-05-2013, 12:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Flashback is monumentally overhyped.

Agreed. If he's really good, he sure hasn't shown it yet. Maybe he will, but I wish I could give a LOT of 12:1 to be proven wrong.

NavalOrange · #14 03-05-2013, 11:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Orb at 12/1 is terrible value.

Truth be told, I'd rather have a bet on Flashback of the two, because at least you have a little more of a wildcard factor with Flashback.

I have Orb at 80-1. Hope he keeps improving.

herkhorse · #15 03-05-2013, 12:35 PM

I'm not sure that it matters much, but Orb looked totally spent after the FOY. At one point it looked like he was going to fall down on the way to the winners circle.

NavalOrange · #16 03-05-2013, 01:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by herkhorse

I'm not sure that it matters much, but Orb looked totally spent after the FOY. At one point it looked like he was going to fall down on the way to the winners circle.

He was totally spent from spending the week in Vegas with you and Rella. At least he rested up when cuddling with Rella.

herkhorse · #17 03-05-2013, 02:04 PM

Hey, what happens in Vegas....

and Orb probably doesn't weigh as much as she did.

good luck with your future bet

Aly-Sheba · #18 03-05-2013, 08:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Yes, but his most recent race was fantastic.

A horse he beat by 16.5 lengths last time just won an entry level alw race on dirt at Gulfstream last Saturday.

His figure was huge on everyones numbers and the performance was confirmed.

With Flashback, it is more about stable buzz and how he trains.

If I had to choose between the two, I would rather have Baffert as my trainer.

Calzone Lord · #19 03-06-2013, 05:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pweizer

It doesn't look like Flashback is facing any killers in the San Felipe this Saturday where he will be odds on. If he wins (and I will certainly look to bet against), he will have much lower derby odds soon.

Paul

There are a couple of interesting, if unproven, challengers in there.

We will know a lot more about Flashback after this race, and I expect that he will be overbet Saturday as well, though odds-on would be kind of ridiculous if the field stays intact.

pweizer · #20 03-06-2013, 06:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

There are a couple of interesting, if unproven, challengers in there.

We will know a lot more about Flashback after this race, and I expect that he will be overbet Saturday as well, though odds-on would be kind of ridiculous if the field stays intact.

Who are you looking at in the field?

And given the hype and the Baffert factor, I would bet he goes off odds on.

Paul