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#1
03-13-2013, 06:06 PM
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Derby Top 10
It becomes more and more pointless to do these things every year...because young horses are just way too lightly raced. Verrazano has only run 3 times, and he is one of the most totally proven horses in this crop.
I did one on February 23rd of last year ( http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=45718 ) so three weeks before this point in time. I'll Have Another was rated #6. Bodemeister was rated #8 off just a maiden win. But only ONE horse in the top 5 actually made it into the Derby starting gate ... and his half sibling is #1 this year. #1: Verrazano: Pletcher in the winter is king...and that form rarely holds and often deteriorates after the winter. He's just clearly the best 3yo out there, and his last two races have been the two best races by any 3yo #2: Itsmyluckyday: He's clearly the second best 3yo out there. I just question how he will do away from GP. His race at Delta in the Delta Jackpot was a true flop. #3: Oxbow: In terms of his current training ability, I hate Wayne Lukas. I probably even have a bias against him...but I'm a fan of Oxbow's last race as well as his race 3-back. His race two back came with a soft trip against weak horses, but he poured it on with style and did everything right except run real fast. This horse has an EXTREMELY late developing pedigree. By Awesome Again out of a full sibling to Tiznow and Budroyale. Very anti-precious pedigree. Because of that, I think Wayne Lukas could be a good factor here in terms of the Derby. With a patient hop artist trainer, this horse could probably develop into another top older horse for Awesome Again (like Ghostzapper and Game On Dude have) ... however, Lukas is going to force the issue and if anyone can get the development to come early, it's probably him. This horse was eased and vanned off in his debut. He's getting better all the time, and with that pedigree, it's hard to believe he was even racing at age 2, let alone a super 4th with everything against him in the Hollywood Futurity. #4: Super Ninety Nine: He's running very fast numbers and he's Baffert. #5: Normandy Invasion: I would put him second... if not for the fact that EVERY single one of the last 21 Kentucky Derby winners has shown proven early speed in a race before this point in there 3yo season. Even Street Sense, Giacomo, and Mine That Bird all had races where they pressed very fast paces. This horse is the most likely to run 3rd in the Derby. #6: Delhomme: I loved his maiden win and I loved his Remsen. He hasn't got the Pletcher winter bounce yet. #7: Flashback: I wasn't a fan of his at all ... but his second was excellent last weekend. Has wildcard potential, as he must succeed when they change to more patient tactics. #8: Vyjack: I like him more as a King's Bishop horse...however, he's a very nice horse and succeeded with the more patient tactics, where as Flashback must do the same next time. Look for him as a serious closing sprinter going 7f. #9: Hear the Ghost: He sucked up ... but he did it in a race where I had expected him to be a pace casualty in his two turn debut. Development pedigree and good proven raw speed. He just still has a way to go. #10: Revolutionary: He's too slow. He and Orb are the prime candidates to round out the Super Hi-5 behind Normandy Invasion's 3rd place finish in the Derby. 
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#2
03-13-2013, 06:41 PM
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Not only were 4 out of my top 5 injured before the Derby last year...
But 3 of them were injured by March 11th! Today is March 13th.
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#4
03-13-2013, 06:55 PM
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Normandy Invasion, Revolutionary, and Orb are the stone cold suck up types that run 3rd and 4th in this race a lot ... and sometimes even 2nd in weak years.
I'd rather put a bunch of horses ahead of them who will probably break down in the next two weeks ... than pick a horse who goes so extremely contrary to the profile of a horse that wins the race over each of the last 21 years.
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#5
03-13-2013, 07:01 PM
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Looking at it again -- Every single one of the top 9 was sidelined with an injury after the Belmont.
I'll Have Another and Bodemeister were done after the Preakness. Union Rags the Belmont. The Derby sent El Padrino and Gemologist away. Alpha, who I had #10, was the only one who made it through June!
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#6
03-13-2013, 07:05 PM
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Quote:
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#7
03-15-2013, 05:07 PM
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I like Verrazano and Oxbow as well. Verrazano has glittering talent and Oxbow has a stamina-laden pedigree.
Interesting note: although Oxbow is listed as a bay, he's actually more of a bay roan. His maiden race at Saratoga happened to be the day South Beach Luv and I visited 'toga. Oxbow's pedigree and coloring were eye-catching. 
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