One of the more interesting barometer horses in regard to this weekends big races

[Calzone Lord]

Authenticity runs today in the La Troienne.

I have her down as one of my barometer horses for Orb and one of my barometer horses for how the Pletcher's at Gulfstream perform at Churchill.

In her most recent start, Authenticity was a distant second to Ciao Bella, but it was the same day and distance as the Florida Derby ... and Authenticity ran a carbon copy of Orb's Florida Derby splits all the way around the track.

Authenticity's individual fractions and final time on Fla Derby day:



Orb's individual fractions and final time on Fla Derby day:




They basically ran the same fractions the entire way around the track.


More interestingly, Pletcher has paired up Authenticity to be the workmate for Verrazano in each of his final two Kentucky Derby workouts.

How Verrazano's workmate Authenticity performs today is something I deem worthy of note. She's one of my barometers both for how Pletchers perform this year going GP to CD and she's obviously a horse who ran a veritable carbon copy of Orb's race on what was unquestionably Orb's finest day.

[Clip-Clop]

Interesting. Thanks for sharing.

[Calzone Lord]

Here are the Incremental splits comparing Dreaming of Julia to Orb on that day:





It's like comparing a Ruth's Chris steak to a McDonald's hamburger.

Dreaming of Julia showed ten lengths more speed and even a little better stretch closing kick.

It's rare that you see three fillies from the same exact barn all run faster than a Kentucky Derby favorite.

Pletcher is unbelievable at Gulfstream. In the past, he hasn't had much luck translating these great GP efforts to Churchill.

[GenuineRisk]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

It's like comparing a Ruth's Chris steak to a McDonald's hamburger.

Seeing as how Ruth's Chris steaks are pretty average cuts of meat enhanced by a LOT of butter, this may turn out to be more accurate than you realize, if it turns out that Gulfstream = butter for Dreaming of Julia.

Not that I have anything against butter. It's delicious.

[Calzone Lord]

Indeed, Gulfstream may very well be the butter.

We will know plenty more at the end of today...and even from some undercard races tomorrow.

[Calzone Lord]

One thing about Gulfstream Park ... that is entirely unrelated to Pletcher ... is the dopey misconception that the track is a more speed favoring track than most places.

That's nonsense, especially in the two-turn races at GP.

The people who think Gulfstream Park is much more of a speed track than other places are still living in the year 2004. Frank Stronach had that track renovated.

Since Gulfstream's renovation, here are how the top 3 Derby finishers who competed in South Florida have performed:

2005: Closing Argument (2nd in the Kentucky Derby) was the only Florida horse with a top 3. He was a speed horse, and pressed the pace in the Holy Bull.

2006: Barbaro -- Tactical speed horse. He pressed the pace from second in both Florida races. Closers were gaining ground on him in the stretch. In his win in the Holy Bull Stakes, he almost got caught by a horse who made a ton of ground in the stretch.

2007: None of the top 3 horses prepped in South Florida.

2008: Big Brown dominated the Kentucky Derby. He went wire-to-wire in the Florida Derby.

2009: None of the top 3 prepped at GP.

2010: Super Saver set the pace and faded in the stretch at Tampa in his only Florida prep, but he never prepped in South Florida at GP. Ice Box, however, did win the Florida Derby with a closing kick. He ran 2nd in a Kentucky Derby that collapsed.

2011: Mucho Macho Man set the pace in the Holy Bull stakes at GP, and he faded to 4th place. Eventual Kentucky Derby favorite Dialed In won that race by closing in last to first fashion. Mucho Macho Man finished 3rd in the KY Derby, and was the lone GP dirt prep horse to finish in the top 3.

2012: None of the top 3 prepped at GP.


The notion of Gulfstream's dirt track, especially at longer distances, being some super speed favoring track is one that hasn't been relevant in many years.

[Clip-Clop]

I would say she ran fairly well.

[casp0555]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Authenticity runs today in the La Troienne.

I have her down as one of my barometer horses for Orb and one of my barometer horses for how the Pletcher's at Gulfstream perform at Churchill.

In her most recent start, Authenticity was a distant second to Ciao Bella, but it was the same day and distance as the Florida Derby ... and Authenticity ran a carbon copy of Orb's Florida Derby splits all the way around the track.

Authenticity's individual fractions and final time on Fla Derby day:



Orb's individual fractions and final time on Fla Derby day:




They basically ran the same fractions the entire way around the track.


More interestingly, Pletcher has paired up Authenticity to be the workmate for Verrazano in each of his final two Kentucky Derby workouts.

How Verrazano's workmate Authenticity performs today is something I deem worthy of note. She's one of my barometers both for how Pletchers perform this year going GP to CD and she's obviously a horse who ran a veritable carbon copy of Orb's race on what was unquestionably Orb's finest day.

Authenticity .....and Johnny V good job Doug

[OTM Al]

Originally Posted by casp0555

Authenticity .....and Johnny V good job Doug

Very interesting and a good race but not as clear cut as it seems. Perfect trip and had the 5 pinned outside the whole way around and the 4 blocked behind. 5 should have travelled about 4-5 lengths further than the 2. Same effort with the spots switched may have looked a little different. Or maybe not....as I've always believed good horses make good trips.

[pointman]

Originally Posted by OTM Al

Very interesting and a good race but not as clear cut as it seems. Perfect trip and had the 5 pinned outside the whole way around and the 4 blocked behind. 5 should have travelled about 4-5 lengths further than the 2. Same effort with the spots switched may have looked a little different. Or maybe not....as I've always believed good horses make good trips.

Not to mention that the the 2 and 5 were allowed to walk around the track.

[Calzone Lord]

I've had 4 barometer horses for Orb run back at Churchill Downs, 3 of them won including the most important one, Authenticity, because Authenticity most mirrored his performance. Take Charge Indy and Golden Ticket were the other two winners...both routed on Fla derby Day and their efforts middle'd Orb's effort that day.

The only one who lost was Dreaming Of Julia ... and she was kid-gloved into the race by Pletcher with a final workout that looked more like a gallop, and ran in a race where the pace dynamics were terrible for her.

I stated before the race there was a 100% chance I would have scratched her, let the other quality speeds tear each apart (like they did), and I'd have pointed for the equally prestigious races in New York with an eye on the BC Distaff. That might have been viewed as a cowardly path to take by the general public, but it was the analytically correct one.

Dreaming of Julia didn't scratch today, and Borel made a sharp left hand turn out of the gate and knocked her sideways at the start. She was forced out of her trip and ran very erratically throughout... in one of those sneaky good efforts with a terrible looking result.

Anyway, I'm going to scale back some of my knocking of Orb. He's still out as a win candidate for me, but the good efforts of three of his four barometer horses who raced at CD this week are going to cement him for the 3rd and 4th spot on all my exotic tickets.