How Derby winners have performed in Preakness since '89

[Calzone Lord]

Horses who won the Derby positioned on the lead throughout to less than 5 lengths back:


* War Emblem (wire-to-wire) Won the Preakness next out and paid $7.60

* Go For Gin (head back of leader) 2nd by three-quarters of a length at 5/2 in Preakness next out.

* Funny Cide (2 lengths) Won the Preakness by 10 lengths and paid $5.80

* Smarty Jones (2.5 lengths) Won the Preakness by 11 lengths and paid $3.40

* Thunder Gulch (3.25 lengths) 3rd by three-quarter of a length at 7/2 odds. Subsequent Belmont and Travers winner.

* Charismatic (3.75 lengths) 1st by 1.5 lengths in Preakness. Paid $18.80 to win.

* Big Brown (4 lengths) 1st by 5 lengths in Preakness. Paid $2.40

* Barbaro (4 lengths) DNF in Preakness. Broke down.

* Silver Charm (4.25 lengths) 1st by a head in Preakness. Paid $8.20 to win.


Total next-out record. 9 starters - 6 winners - 1 second - 1 third. Of the three beaten -- two were beaten by less than a length and Barbaro broke down. Avg win mutual is $7.70.



Derby winners that closed between 5 lengths to 10 lengths of ground:


* Animal Kingdom (6.25 lengths) close second at 2/1 in Preakness.

* Lil E Tee (6.25 lengths) 5th at 4/1 in Preakness.

* Sunday Silence (6.50 lengths) Won Preakness and paid $6.20

* I'll Have Another (8 lengths) Won Preakness and paid $8.40

* Real Quiet (8 lengths) Won Preakness and paid $7.00

* Super Saver (8 lengths) 8th in Preakness at 9/5 odds


Total Next out record: 3-for-6 (50% wins) with 1 second place finish. Avg win price of $7.30



Derby winners who rallied from more than 10 lengths back:


* Strike The Gold (10.25 lengths) 6th at 9/5 odds in Preakness.

* Sea Hero (10.75 lengths) 5th by 8 lengths at 4/1 in Preakness

* Fusaichi Pegasus (12.5 lengths) 2nd by 4 lengths at 1/5 odds.

* Unbridled (13.25 lengths) 2nd by 2.5 lengths in the Preakness.

* Monarchos (16 lengths) 6th by 7.5 lengths at 2/1 odds in Preakness

* Giacomo (16.25 lengths) 3rd by 9.75 lengths at 6/1 odds in Preakness

* Grindstone (16.75 lengths) Never raced again

* Street Sense (19.5 lengths) 2nd by a head at 6/5 odds.

* Mine That Bird (21 lengths) 2nd by a length at 6/1 odds.


None of the nine succeeded in the Preakness. They compiled a next out record of 8-0-4-1 with four beaten favorites.

Removing Barbaro and Grindstone from consideration, the stats look like this:

Less than 5 lengths back: 8-6-1-1 (75% wins, 100% ITM) Avg win mutual $7.70

5 to 10 lengths back: 6-3-1-0 (50% wins, 66.66% ITM) Avg win mutual $7.30

More than 10 lengths back: 8-0-4-1 (0% wins, 62.50% ITM)

[Calzone Lord]

We had three horses in the years Kentucky Derby who closed more than 10 lengths and finished in the Superfecta. They are Orb, Golden Soul, and Revolutionary.

Since 1989, here's a list of all horses who closed 10 or more lengths to make the Derby Superfecta and run again in a triple crown race. The result of their next start is in parenthesis.


Dullahan (7th as 5/2 favorite in Belmont)

Went The Day Well (10th at 5/1 in Preakness)

Ice Box (9th in Belmont as the 9/5 favorite)

Make Music For Me (10th in Belmont at 12/1 odds)

Mine That Bird (2nd in Preakness at 6/1 odds)

Denis Of Cork (2nd in Belmont at 7/1 odds)

Street Sense (2nd in Preakness as 6/5 favorite)

I'mawildandcrazyguy (6th in Belmont at 9/1)

Giacomo (3rd in Preakness at 6/1)

Monarchos (6th in Preakness at 2/1 co-favorite)

Fusaichi Pegasus (2nd in Preakness at 1/5 favorite)

Impeachment (3rd in Preakness at 19/1)

Victory Gallop (2nd as 2/1 favorite)

Sea Hero (5th in the Preakness at 4/1)

Prairie Bayou (Won the Preakness as 2/1 favorite)

Strike The Gold (6th in the Preakness as 9/5 favorite)

Green Alligator (10th in the Belmont Stakes at 4/1 odds)

Unbridled (2nd in Preakness as the 8/5 favorite)

18-1-6-2 (8 beaten favorites)

Lone winner 2/1 favorite Prairie Bayou won Preakness over sprinter Cherokee Run and Robert Perez's El Bakan.

[Port Conway Lane]

This makes Pleasant Colony a rare bird indeed.

[10 pnt move up]

Doug,

Looking at the pace figures, final times, pace dynamics, wasn't Super Saver one the few horses with a really strong Derby who just flopped in the Preakness?

Here is the Paceline

CD 05/01/2010 11 113 92 81 Super Saver

So the race collapsed but he was pretty close to that 113 at only 8 lengths of it, other Derbys with a +25 to +35 profile seem to all really collapse into 15-20 length Giacomo style wins.

Either way I wills stab against Orb.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

This makes Pleasant Colony a rare bird indeed.

Alysheba and Spectacular Bid both did recently win the Derby from 10 lengths or more back as well.

However, Alysheba did it with dramatic flair, almost falling, and coming on to win anyway.

Spectacular Bid, meanwhile, did it against a historic slow pace.

Spectacular Bid ducked in a bit at the start, and was settled 6.5 lengths behind a 24 1/5th opening quarter.

How slow is a 24 1/5 opening quarter in the Kentucky Derby?

It's the outright slowest in the Derby since 1959 (54 years ago!)

And the last time an opening quarter in the Kentucky Derby went slower than 24 1/5th was 1912 (101 years ago) when a horse named Worth got away with a 24 3/5th opening quarter and went wire-to-wire in 2:09 2/5th over a track that was a bog.

General Assembly, who was leading after that historically slow 1st quarter kicked it in a bit and Spectacular Bid was 10 lengths back and in 6th position after a half in 47 2/5ths.

He made a powerhouse 5-wide move on the far turn and won going away despite the slow pace.

Spectacular Bid's Ragozin figure was the second fastest Kentucky Derby figure in the 1900's ... trailing only Secretariat's by 1 point.

[fantini33]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Horses who won the Derby positioned on the lead throughout to less than 5 lengths back:


* War Emblem (wire-to-wire) Won the Preakness next out and paid $7.60

* Go For Gin (head back of leader) 2nd by three-quarters of a length at 5/2 in Preakness next out.

* Funny Cide (2 lengths) Won the Preakness by 10 lengths and paid $5.80

* Smarty Jones (2.5 lengths) Won the Preakness by 11 lengths and paid $3.40

* Thunder Gulch (3.25 lengths) 3rd by three-quarter of a length at 7/2 odds. Subsequent Belmont and Travers winner.

* Charismatic (3.75 lengths) 1st by 1.5 lengths in Preakness. Paid $18.80 to win.

* Big Brown (4 lengths) 1st by 5 lengths in Preakness. Paid $2.40

* Barbaro (4 lengths) DNF in Preakness. Broke down.

* Silver Charm (4.25 lengths) 1st by a head in Preakness. Paid $8.20 to win.


Total next-out record. 9 starters - 6 winners - 1 second - 1 third. Of the three beaten -- two were beaten by less than a length and Barbaro broke down. Avg win mutual is $7.70.



Derby winners that closed between 5 lengths to 10 lengths of ground:


* Animal Kingdom (6.25 lengths) close second at 2/1 in Preakness.

* Lil E Tee (6.25 lengths) 5th at 4/1 in Preakness.

* Sunday Silence (6.50 lengths) Won Preakness and paid $6.20

* I'll Have Another (8 lengths) Won Preakness and paid $8.40

* Real Quiet (8 lengths) Won Preakness and paid $7.00

* Super Saver (8 lengths) 8th in Preakness at 9/5 odds


Total Next out record: 3-for-6 (50% wins) with 1 second place finish. Avg win price of $7.30



Derby winners who rallied from more than 10 lengths back:


* Strike The Gold (10.25 lengths) 6th at 9/5 odds in Preakness.

* Sea Hero (10.75 lengths) 5th by 8 lengths at 4/1 in Preakness

* Fusaichi Pegasus (12.5 lengths) 2nd by 4 lengths at 1/5 odds.

* Unbridled (13.25 lengths) 2nd by 2.5 lengths in the Preakness.

* Monarchos (16 lengths) 6th by 7.5 lengths at 2/1 odds in Preakness

* Giacomo (16.25 lengths) 3rd by 9.75 lengths at 6/1 odds in Preakness

* Grindstone (16.75 lengths) Never raced again

* Street Sense (19.5 lengths) 2nd by a head at 6/5 odds.

* Mine That Bird (21 lengths) 2nd by a length at 6/1 odds.


None of the nine succeeded in the Preakness. They compiled a next out record of 8-0-4-1 with four beaten favorites.

Removing Barbaro and Grindstone from consideration, the stats look like this:

Less than 5 lengths back: 8-6-1-1 (75% wins, 100% ITM) Avg win mutual $7.70

5 to 10 lengths back: 6-3-1-0 (50% wins, 66.66% ITM) Avg win mutual $7.30

More than 10 lengths back: 8-0-4-1 (0% wins, 62.50% ITM)

This information is fantastic! It more or less confirms what my memory thought to be the case, just in dramatic detail.

Doug, I will be having a tremendous vested interest in the race and this analysis is sensational stuff. Much obliged.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

Doug,

Looking at the pace figures, final times, pace dynamics, wasn't Super Saver one the few horses with a really strong Derby who just flopped in the Preakness?

Here is the Paceline

CD 05/01/2010 11 113 92 81 Super Saver

So the race collapsed but he was pretty close to that 113 at only 8 lengths of it, other Derbys with a +25 to +35 profile seem to all really collapse into 15-20 length Giacomo style wins.

Either way I wills stab against Orb.

Super Saver might have just been a slop freak.

He only raced twice on a sloppy track, one time he broke his maiden by 7 lengths in a race where the 3rd place horse was beaten 15 lengths and the 4th place horse was beaten 20 lengths.

His other sloppy track race, he of course won the Derby with Borel after getting a clear rail trip.

History says you have to stab against Orb ... I just don't know who you stab against him with. I'd love to see Dreaming of Julia step up...but Pletcher is talking about running her in the Belmont Stakes. I don't know about that though, she's out of the Rick Violette speed sprinter Dream Rush...which sure does offset a lot of the A. P. Indy on the top of the pedigree.

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Alysheba and Spectacular Bid both did recently win the Derby from 10 lengths or more back as well.

I would have never guessed, especially SB. I remember that bold move but didn't realize it was from so far back. I'm still waiting for Screen King to pass GA for the exacta. I do have the very colorful $5 win and $5 exacta box tote tickets for sale at face value.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

History says you have to stab against Orb ... I just don't know who you stab against him with.

Yep. The info you provided is good and definitely shows a useful historical trend. But three of those Derby-winning closers were only denied a repeat in the Preakness by Summer Squall, Curlin, and Rachel Alexandra. I don't think there's anybody like that lining up against Orb in Pimlico.

[RockHardTen1985]

Doesn't Orbs Fl Derby tell you he can be much closer to the pace if needed?

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Yep. The info you provided is good and definitely shows a useful historical trend. But three of those Derby-winning closers were only denied a repeat in the Preakness by Summer Squall, Curlin, and Rachel Alexandra. I don't think there's anybody like that lining up against Orb in Pimlico.

Without a doubt this is true.

Like I said, you have to go fishing if you want to bet against Orb. There isn't much out there.

[pweizer]

You jumped off the Goldencents bandwagon awfully quickly. I think he may be the one I would try.

Paul

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by pweizer

You jumped off the Goldencents bandwagon awfully quickly. I think he may be the one I would try.

Paul

Speaking of which...

Here's another stat from the good ole Post Derby file:

In the history of the Derby, 74 horses have now run an opening 1/4 mile faster than 22.80 seconds.

Only one of those 74 went on to win. Bold Forbes in 1976.

10 beaten post time favorites among the 74 horses who went faster than 22.80 in the opening quarter.

Four went faster than 22.80 this year:

Palace Malice
Goldencents (beaten 49.5 lengths)
Falling Sky (beaten 53 lengths)
Verrazano (beaten just 15.75 lengths)


Vyjack (beaten 52.75 lengths) missed the cut by running his first quarter in 22.86 but having to go so wide into the first turn after running that fast quarter probably didn't help his cause much.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Yep. The info you provided is good and definitely shows a useful historical trend. But three of those Derby-winning closers were only denied a repeat in the Preakness by Summer Squall, Curlin, and Rachel Alexandra. I don't think there's anybody like that lining up against Orb in Pimlico.

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Doesn't Orbs Fl Derby tell you he can be much closer to the pace if needed?

Originally Posted by pweizer

You jumped off the Goldencents bandwagon awfully quickly. I think he may be the one I would try.

Paul

He did look uncomfortable on the track on Saturday.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Doesn't Orbs Fl Derby tell you he can be much closer to the pace if needed?

Some of those other closers had pretty good positional speed.

Fu Peg was never more than 3.5 lengths back in the Wood Memorial and Never more than 1 length back in the San Felipe and he dominated both races.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Some of those other closers had pretty good positional speed.

Fu Peg was never more than 3.5 lengths back in the Wood Memorial and Never more than 1 length back in the San Felipe and he dominated both races.

FuPeg also lost to a fresh horse in the Preakness.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

FuPeg also lost to a fresh horse in the Preakness.

One of the admirable things about Orb is his hardiness and ability to gradually improve a little with each start.

Animal Kingdom won his Derby with a looping wide move into the teeth of a slow early pace. It was the kind of analytically exciting performance that Orb has never come remotely close to delivering.

Animal Kingdom is a sissy though. He runs killer races and does historic things on all 3 surfaces ... his race in the BC Mile off that kind of layoff was unreal, winning a Dubai World Cup on Tapeta in that fashion ... just awesome.

But, he doesn't exactly campaign like Kelso or Spectacular Bid. He gives one great performance on the big race he's primed for, and either regresses or is put in mothballs.

Fu Peg wasn't the hardiest horse either.

I'll bet against it ... but Orb's best cards right now might be his hardiness and his lack of decent competition from within this crop.

I've Struck a Nerve came into the Risen Star Stakes with a 1-for-8 record, and he won it at odds of 135/1. Code West, who got humiliated in a workout by the filly Midnight Lucky finished 2nd. He couldn't even win an N1X allowance race on the Derby undercard.

And who was behind 135/1 shot I've Struck a Nerve and fading Baffert Code West in the Risen Star:

Golden Soul (Derby 2nd place finisher)
Normandy Invasion (Derby 4th place finisher)
Mylute (Derby 5th place finisher)
Oxbow (Derby 6th place finisher)
Palace Malice (Derby near record setting pace setter)

All of them in the wake of I've Struck A Nerve and Code West. The two big excuse horses that day (Oxbow and Normandy Invasion both had horrid trips in the Risen Star) both seem like the best chances in the Preakness.

[asudevil]

Douglas,

Always great stuff!

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

FuPeg also lost to a fresh horse in the Preakness.

He also didn't handle the track.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by asudevil

Douglas,

Always great stuff!

It will probably prove trivial if all of this deep fried speed goes (Titletown Five, Goldencents, Vyjack, Gov Charlie, Itsmyluckyday, Oxbow, etc)

If Normandy Invasion stays away and six speed horses show up off of a fading running line ... this race is a pass and I wouldn't bet 2-cents against Orb ... who won't be underlayed because of the big crowd a/effect that led to Wise Dan paying $3.20 against Lukas and some rats...when he would have paid $2.40 max almost any other day.