Old Beyer Angle

[Calzone Lord]

In a span of 16 straight Preakness editions run between 1994 and 2009, every single winner of the Preakness had already run a Beyer figure of 103 or higher - at a route distance - and on a fast track - coming into the race.

The streak survived for a final year in 2009 when Rachel Alexandra ($5.60) won the Preakness as the lone wolf in the field to have done this.

In 2010, the streak was automatically broken, as no horse in the field had ever done it.

In fact, Jackson Bend (just a 100) had the outright highest coming in. He finished 3rd beaten less than a length at 11/1 odds.

In 2011, Animal Kingdom was the lone wolf. He was the only member in the field to do it, and finished 2nd beaten a half length at 2/1 odds.

In 2012, Bodemeister was the lone wolf. He finished 2nd beaten a neck.

This year, surprisingly, there are two Goldencents (105) and Itsmyluckyday (104) who qualify.

Orb ran a 104 in the Kentucky Derby, but technically, it was a wet track.

The big problem for Goldencents and Itsmyluckyday is the dynamics are terrible for both of them. They both earned those big figures with a perfect trip they don't project to get...and the front-running sprinter Titletown Five's presence really spoils the party. Not only that, but Oxbow has the same stalk-and-go running style.

[Aly-Sheba]

C.L.,
Good info. Is there info you might have on horses after running bad or beaten quite a few lengths in the Derby that have come back and won the Preakness or ran really good? Seems like there are always a few that run back with that scenario.

Rob

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Aly-Sheba

C.L.,
Good info. Is there info you might have on horses after running bad or beaten quite a few lengths in the Derby that have come back and won the Preakness or ran really good? Seems like there are always a few that run back with that scenario.

Rob

Lookin At Lucky
Point Given
Louis Quatorze and Skip Away

[Sightseek]

Horses that didn't start in the Derby and won the Preakness (for the Departing lovers) in the past 20 years:

Bernardini
Red Bullet

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

The big problem for Goldencents and Itsmyluckyday is the dynamics are terrible for both of them. They both earned those big figures with a perfect trip they don't project to get...and the front-running sprinter Titletown Five's presence really spoils the party. Not only that, but Oxbow has the same stalk-and-go running style.

Doesn't Itsmyluckyday just look to have went off form? He looked bad getting run down by Orb after a modest pace, then was horrible in the Derby. I have more problem forgiving the Florida Derby than the big one.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Doesn't Itsmyluckyday just look to have went off form? He looked bad getting run down by Orb after a modest pace, then was horrible in the Derby. I have more problem forgiving the Florida Derby than the big one.

You had some very weird circumstances surrounding It'smyluckyday after his two big races in Florida.

He didn't work for four weeks after the race, and was supposedly not going to the track much by design to get him "fresh" for the triple crown series and summer.

I thought his training pattern made no sense at all going into the Kentucky Derby ... his final workout came ten days before the Derby and was 4 furlongs in 53 flat ... 9th slowest of 9 to work the distance at Calder.

His other work was a mile in 1:43 seven days before that. Historically, the horses who step up in the Derby usually come into the race with fast final works. Not 4 furlongs in 53 ten days out and a stamina builder at a mile before that.

I'd feel better in the short term about betting a horse like Hard Spun or Normandy Invasion who just runs off and wants to do more than asked a few days before the Derby, as opposed to a good horse who is being kid gloved into it with speed dulling workouts.

His form obviously has tailed off sharply after those Florida races ... but he has looked to be in peak physical condition according to those whose strength it is to judge horses based on looks. Maybe the unusual training strategy hurt him in the Fla Derby and Ky Derby ... but set him out to improve going into the Haskell.

[Gate Dancer]

Originally Posted by Aly-Sheba

C.L.,
Good info. Is there info you might have on horses after running bad or beaten quite a few lengths in the Derby that have come back and won the Preakness or ran really good? Seems like there are always a few that run back with that scenario.

Rob

Hansel

[WGA]

I can see your opinion on the projected trip for Goldencents but Itsmyluckyday should be stalking from the outside and has proven that he is capable of attending a Graded race successfully if he is in form

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

In a span of 16 straight Preakness editions run between 1994 and 2009, every single winner of the Preakness had already run a Beyer figure of 103 or higher - at a route distance - and on a fast track - coming into the race.

The streak survived for a final year in 2009 when Rachel Alexandra ($5.60) won the Preakness as the lone wolf in the field to have done this.

In 2010, the streak was automatically broken, as no horse in the field had ever done it.

In fact, Jackson Bend (just a 100) had the outright highest coming in. He finished 3rd beaten less than a length at 11/1 odds.

In 2011, Animal Kingdom was the lone wolf. He was the only member in the field to do it, and finished 2nd beaten a half length at 2/1 odds.

In 2012, Bodemeister was the lone wolf. He finished 2nd beaten a neck.

This year, surprisingly, there are two Goldencents (105) and Itsmyluckyday (104) who qualify.

Orb ran a 104 in the Kentucky Derby, but technically, it was a wet track.

The big problem for Goldencents and Itsmyluckyday is the dynamics are terrible for both of them. They both earned those big figures with a perfect trip they don't project to get...and the front-running sprinter Titletown Five's presence really spoils the party. Not only that, but Oxbow has the same stalk-and-go running style.

So you love Oxbow? Good to know Douglas.

[tabs]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Horses that didn't start in the Derby and won the Preakness (for the Departing lovers) in the past 20 years:

Bernardini
Red Bullet

Love everything about Departing heading into the Preakness. He will be keyed in all horizontal and vertical wagers. I think Lukas will try and steal the race, I'm counting on Goldencents to ensure a honest-fast pace. I'm not sure if Departing's best will be good enough but he'll run a new top Saturday.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by tabs

Love everything about Departing heading into the Preakness. He will be keyed in all horizontal and vertical wagers. I think Lucas will try and steal the race, I'm counting on Goldencents to ensure a honest-fast pace. I'm not sure if Departing's best will be good enough but he'll run a new top Saturday.

Lucas just never gets old. He is my favorite trainer. My favorite basketball player is Kobi Brian.

[tabs]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Lucas just never gets old. He is my favorite trainer. My favorite basketball player is Kobi Brian.

Tough board (Lukas)