Grey on Belmont Day

[Bogey]

Not only are the meteorologists' predicting Grey skies for Saturday at Belmont Park, but there are plenty of top contenders in Stake races that are Grey. Let's take a closer look at the top Grey performers. I thought Halloween was in October?

Race 7 - #1 Ozone Bere (Fr) - Impressive U.S. debut showing plenty of guts on the rail. Could turn out to be a the top of the Division.

Race 8 - #1 Too Much Bling - Received a well deserved vacation, but is thrown right into the fire again. He's 3 for 3 for the year and has done it with style (Bling). A very nice sprinter to say the least.

Race 9 - # 7 Teammate - Talented filly makes her return after a foot bruise sent her to the sidelines. She beat some quality fillies at Gulfstream Park and looks ready to fire for the Giant Killer.

Race 10 - #5 Grey Swallow (Ire) - Outstanding U.S. debut for the son of '99 Turf Champion Daylami. The class of the field should be close to the front end in a race that lacks pace. The 5yr old is primed for a huge '06 campaign. This might be the best price you'll get on him all year. Keep punching tickets with him on top until your arms get tired. BEST BET OF THE DAY

Race 11 - #11 Steppenwolfer - Mr. Consistent, never off the board on dirt. The grey is training better than ever and should relish the extra distance. Serious contender.
#12 Sacred Light - Stumbled badly at the start of the SA Derby and lost all chances. It cost him the son of Holy Bull a start in the Derby, but he still starter on Derby day vs. older horses and ran a respectable 2nd. Please note his effort in ALW race on Derby day was from a dead rail. Major Player at a Price $$$.

Grey Racing Luck

[blackthroatedwind]

Ozone Bere enjoyed an absolutely perfect trip, and masterful ride, against an extremely weak bunch on Preakness Day, and is way out of her league here. Even if Wend doesn't handle the going, and I think she will, Ozone Bere couldn't beat Gorella without an incident. Frankly, I'm skeptical that she is even better than Pommes Frites.

As for Grey Swallow, I'm not sure what was " outstanding " about his US debut where he was allowed to walk around the track ( half in 51 and change ) against a terrible and badly overmatched five horse field ( four opponents ). To me he appears to be yet another once top Euro who is well past his prime and was sent to the US to chase the mediocre pickings around the States. While other than English Channel, and his tactical advantage, there are no killers here, I am dubious about Grey Swallow's chances. This is certainly a completely different game than the one he played in California six weeks ago.

And, oh yeah, the rail wasn't dead on Derby Day.

Originally Posted by Bogey

Not only are the meteorologists' predicting Grey skies for Saturday at Belmont Park, but there are plenty of top contenders in Stake races that are Grey. Let's take a closer look at the top Grey performers. I thought Halloween was in October?

Race 7 - #1 Ozone Bere (Fr) - Impressive U.S. debut showing plenty of guts on the rail. Could turn out to be a the top of the Division.

Race 8 - #1 Too Much Bling - Received a well deserved vacation, but is thrown right into the fire again. He's 3 for 3 for the year and has done it with style (Bling). A very nice sprinter to say the least.

Race 9 - # 7 Teammate - Talented filly makes her return after a foot bruise sent her to the sidelines. She beat some quality fillies at Gulfstream Park and looks ready to fire for the Giant Killer.

Race 10 - #5 Grey Swallow (Ire) - Outstanding U.S. debut for the son of '99 Turf Champion Daylami. The class of the field should be close to the front end in a race that lacks pace. The 5yr old is primed for a huge '06 campaign. This might be the best price you'll get on him all year. Keep punching tickets with him on top until your arms get tired. BEST BET OF THE DAY

Race 11 - #11 Steppenwolfer - Mr. Consistent, never off the board on dirt. The grey is training better than ever and should relish the extra distance. Serious contender.
#12 Sacred Light - Stumbled badly at the start of the SA Derby and lost all chances. It cost him the son of Holy Bull a start in the Derby, but he still starter on Derby day vs. older horses and ran a respectable 2nd. Please note his effort in ALW race on Derby day was from a dead rail. Major Player at a Price $$$.

Grey Racing Luck

Bogey,
This I will tell you. I had keyed Grey Swallow in a pik-4 last out and watched him run, he beat absolute garbage horses, and had to work hard to get by one of the goats on the turn. Hes a nothing, and I mean a NOTHING. There is no way he beats this field on saturday. Apparaently Im the only one who actually watched his last race, because I just can't fathom why so many people like this horse in a race that he has absolutely no chance at all of winning. YOU may wanna go back and watch his last race, and actually peruse the pp's of the absolute rodents he beat last out. No way, no how.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Ozone Bere enjoyed an absolutely perfect trip, and masterful ride, against an extremely weak bunch on Preakness Day, and is way out of her league here. Even if Wend doesn't handle the going, and I think she will, Ozone Bere couldn't beat Gorella without an incident. Frankly, I'm skeptical that she is even better than Pommes Frites.

As for Grey Swallow, I'm not sure what was " outstanding " about his US debut where he was allowed to walk around the track ( half in 51 and change ) against a terrible and badly overmatched five horse field ( four opponents ). To me he appears to be yet another once top Euro who is well past his prime and was sent to the US to chase the mediocre pickings around the States. While other than English Channel, and his tactical advantage, there are no killers here, I am dubious about Grey Swallow's chances. This is certainly a completely different game than the one he played in California six weeks ago.




And, oh yeah, the rail wasn't dead on Derby Day.

Agreed with everything you said, except that the rail was not the place to be on Derby Day. It wasn't impossible to win on it, but it was not the place to be.

[ateamstupid]

I agree with pretty much everything blackthroatedwind said. I totally concur about him being overrated and most likely over the hill, but at the same time, I wouldn't be able to forgive myself if a ticket blew up because he finally lived up to the hype. The horse did beat Bago once upon a time after all.

And the sun will be out Saturday, Bogey! No grey skies.

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I agree with pretty much everything blackthroatedwind said. I totally concur about him being overrated and most likely over the hill, but at the same time, I wouldn't be able to forgive myself if a ticket blew up because he finally lived up to the hype. The horse did beat Bago once upon a time.

And the sun will be out Saturday, Bogey! No grey skies.

Ateam he beat absolute nothings last time, I mean please. Beacon Breacon? You've got to be kidding me. English Channel and Cacique are both making their 3rd starts in the form cycle and have had proper 5 weeks rest of their last race. Both are well trained, etc.
I'm not saying to go out and mortgage the house and bet an exacta box on the two faves, but including horses like Grey Swallow in pik-3's and pik-4's is insanity, it will repreesent a complete waste of money.

[blackthroatedwind]

There is ZERO evidence that the rail was " not the place to be " on Derby Day....and I mean ZERO. Because a trainer made the mistake of using it as an excuse for a horse, Sweetnorthernsaint, who had actual excuses does not make it so. The simple fact is that plenty of horses ran just fine, no worse than could have been expected and in some cases possibly better, while running on the rail. With that being the case, and I have gone back and watched the replays of all the dirt races more than once, there is NO chance there was anything wrong with the rail that day. The simple fact is that because a horse, even a few horses, don't perform up to expectations while being on the rail ( and I'm not convinced there are examples of this on Derby Day ), the rail is NOT necessarily dead. As, if even a couple of horses perform up to expectations while racing on the rail then there is no chance it is ( or was ) dead. If the rail is dead, or even " not the place to be ", NOBODY will run up to expectations. It will not hamper some but not all....it will affect every single horse that races on it.

The simple fact is that racetracks can often give the illusion of having an off rail because most races are run in an outside flow manner. The funny thing about Derby Day was the number of horses that actually made effective moves inside of horses and towards the inside.

The track, at Churchill Downs on May 6th, was even.

[ateamstupid]

No offense dude, you're sharp and have hit more Pick 6 tickets than I've even played in my life, but I've also seen your tickets go down the drain after you get beaten by a chalk, which I think most would say is INSANE. If I'm gonna invest a significant amount of money into a Pick 4 or Pick 6, I don't care if I absolutely hate the favorite, I'm including him or her if I'm not singling someone else, because it just makes zero sense to have a big ticket explode thanks to your exclusion of a chalk that won.

Large Pick 4 and 6 tickets are not the places to try and beat favorites all day long.

[blackthroatedwind]

You are correct, while I don't particularly like Grey Swallow, a responsible Pick-6 for reasonable money must use him somewhere on at least one of your tickets. If you're playing for a few hundred bucks it is probably fine to spend you money elsewhere ( like using as many horses as possible against Too Much Bling ) but no responsible ticket, for real money, would completely leave Grey Swallow out.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You are correct, while I don't particularly like Grey Swallow, a responsible Pick-6 for reasonable money must use him somewhere on at least one of your tickets. If you're playing for a few hundred bucks it is probably fine to spend you money elsewhere ( like using as many horses as possible against Too Much Bling ) but no responsible ticket, for real money, would completely leave Grey Swallow out.

Well my track record is pretty hard to beat. Look, we will occasionally go deep, but only a substantial carryover. The key to effectively playing a ticket in the 600 dollar range(which is what we almost always spend) is to isolate the bad faves. Ateam I respect you but until you hit a few high 5 figure or 6 figure numbers I really can't say that I think you know all the ins and outs. Blackthroat has hit many as well.
You simply can't cover every fringe chalk horse and still have enough room in the multiples to cover the horses who can give you a nice one.
We aren't trying to hit every pik-6, we are trying to hit ones they pay well and at the same time have a chance to hit lower paying tickets if thats whats comes up. Tomorrow we will spend more than we usually do. I have two singles and as of right now the ticket is still very high. To me Gorella is just a gimme. And I love Cacique and will be singling him as well. I have watched both of caciques races and think he has not fired his best shot yet. EC looks like a bounce to me off a lifetime top that he ran with a perfect trip.
I'm currently three deep in the True North and VERY deep in the ACron, Woody Stephens, and Belmont. I strongly feel that in those three races above the other three legs that a price will come in at least one of those races and very strongly feel that a price will exist in at least two of those legs. Therefore you work backwards off those three races attempting to narrow the others, in my opinion. And if you have a ticket in the 1200 dollar range, please feel free to post it. I know you don't play them a lot, and I think you will find when constructing one as a mental exercise that the 1200 bucks goes fast when putting one together. There will always be horses you have to leave out in order to make the ticket fit the money you are spending. Thats a given. Todays pik-6 will give me nightmares as well, its a VERY hard ticket to play. If it was easy, they wouldnt ever pay huge money, and you always need some luck to hit one. The one we caught for 39 grand on Sunday at Hollywood is one that gave me fits for two nighst afterwards. The bad ride we got in the first leg on the 2nd horse probably cost us having a ticket that would have paid in the 240-300 grand range, maybe more.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You are correct, while I don't particularly like Grey Swallow, a responsible Pick-6 for reasonable money must use him somewhere on at least one of your tickets. If you're playing for a few hundred bucks it is probably fine to spend you money elsewhere ( like using as many horses as possible against Too Much Bling ) but no responsible ticket, for real money, would completely leave Grey Swallow out.

And yes, I am thinking try to beat Bling. I don't like the post and see a possible regression of the huge one he ran last time.
The Acorn is a nightmare to me, I could see as many as 6 horses winning it. The Belmont gave me fits as well. The true Noth looks like the entry, Vicarage, and Anew. I know many will single Tiger but i dont trust him back off short rest and two huge races(I thought the last race was as perfect a trip as a horse will ever get, running "loose" and unimpeded or pushed in 2nd tracking a horse who likes to give it up who had set an absurd 1/4 time, and the field was weak, in addition his well documented physical problems make him a hard horse ever to single as those can flare up at any given time).

[blackthroatedwind]

Your track record is pretty hard to beat? Do you really want to start that nonsense with me here? Give me a break.

I play the Pick-6 with my own money and regardless of what partners I may have I also make up the tickets so pardon me if I feel a right to discuss successful Pick-6 strategy. My success, as you well know, has been pretty substantial in Pick-6s over the last couple years.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Your track record is pretty hard to beat? Do you really want to start that nonsense with me here? Give me a break.

I play the Pick-6 with my own money and regardless of what partners I may have I also make up the tickets so pardon me if I feel a right to discuss successful Pick-6 strategy. My success, as you well know, has been pretty substantial in Pick-6s over the last couple years.

Andy i was speaking to Ateam, not you. reread the post.
And my record is hard to beat. Lansdon and I have done as well as anybody I know who only spend a limited amount of cash.

And if there is a single today that leaps out at anybody, well, I sure don't see it. Anxiously awaiting the track conditions and late scratches. The Hill Prince is a VERY hard race imo.

[blackthroatedwind]

True, Mike, but I was mislead by your using my post as a header. Do you put in the same amount of money as Landson or pay for just your share?

Playing Pick-6s is about surviving. The reason they are hard to hit is that it is rare in a six race sequence that there isn't at least one " trip-up " race and often more. Obviously the more of these there are the more it will pay and your only hope of making a decent score is to successfully navigate at least a couple of these situations. However, it is all good and fine to get your two oddball horses home, but if you outsmart yourself and leave off a logical favorite in an earlier race you are doomed. So, success in the Pick-6 leans heavily on two things, having good opinions at the right time as well as, and MORE importantly, putting your ticket(s) together correctly.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

True, Mike, but I was mislead by your using my post as a header. Do you put in the same amount of money as Landson or pay for just your share?

Playing Pick-6s is about surviving. The reason they are hard to hit is that it is rare in a six race sequence that there isn't at least one " trip-up " race and often more. Obviously the more of these there are the more it will pay and your only hope of making a decent score is to successfully navigate at least a couple of these situations. However, it is all good and fine to get your two oddball horses home, but if you outsmart yourself and leave off a logical favorite in an earlier race you are doomed. So, success in the Pick-6 leans heavily on two things, having good opinions at the right time as well as, and MORE importantly, putting your ticket(s) together correctly.

I agree with every word of your post, you would be shocked how often you and I think exactly alike. Our common friend often gets your thoughts from another common friend and when he asks me for mine he very often says, thats the same thing that you said.
Lans puts up the money, and I get "sweat equity". I once wanted to buy in to a ticket with him at a higher percentage and he declined. Its his feeling that by having him put up the cash it eliminates emotions from me and causes me to operate with clarity. He knows me better than anyone, and I really can't argue with his thoughts. Hes rarely wrong when it comes to me.

[jpops757]

Originally Posted by oracle80

I agree with every word of your post, you would be shocked how often you and I think exactly alike. Our common friend often gets your thoughts from another common friend and when he asks me for mine he very often says, thats the same thing that you said.
Lans puts up the money, and I get "sweat equity". I once wanted to buy in to a ticket with him at a higher percentage and he declined. Its his feeling that by having him put up the cash it eliminates emotions from me and causes me to operate with clarity. He knows me better than anyone, and I really can't argue with his thoughts. Hes rarely wrong when it comes to me.

Ora you get a lot of grief from posters knocking you because of Lbigs investment on the Pk6s but this looks to me like this is a key element of yalls stratagy. Very good. The first time I have heard of this aspect of the partnership. A very astute view of Lbigs and very good of you to recognize this.

Originally Posted by jpops757

Ora you get a lot of grief from posters knocking you because of Lbigs investment on the Pk6s but this looks to me like this is a key element of yalls stratagy. Very good. The first time I have heard of this aspect of the partnership. A very astute view of Lbigs and very good of you to recognize this.

Well I mean really its just common sense. Betting 6-1200 every time there is a carryover is just way too rich for my blood. Thats why I have never tried to represent it as an equal partenership. I mean, I can't tell you how many people I meet who are partners in one of those syndicates who will say "My horse is running tomorrow". I mean, to represent it like that would have the listener assume that the person saying that owns the whole horse. Its just not true.

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by oracle80

And if there is a single today that leaps out at anybody, well, I sure don't see it. Anxiously awaiting the track conditions and late scratches. The Hill Prince is a VERY hard race imo.

Lots of scratches in the 9th leaving a 4 house field... Wild Gams and Kahlila are left.

I think To Sender bounces back in the Hill Prince. I'm saving my money for tomorrow tough. Good Luck!

[Exceller]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Well I mean really its just common sense. Betting 6-1200 every time there is a carryover is just way too rich for my blood. Thats why I have never tried to represent it as an equal partenership. I mean, I can't tell you how many people I meet who are partners in one of those syndicates who will say "My horse is running tomorrow". I mean, to represent it like that would have the listener assume that the person saying that owns the whole horse. Its just not true.

When I say "my horse is running tomorrow" that is correct, it is my horse even if I only own 10% or even a half-unit.. I love jealous guys like you who attack syndicate owners. If High Finance wins tomorrow every person that owns a piece has every right to say they owned a Belmont Stakes winner. Why don't you write a $20K check and see if you call yourself an owner?

Comparing gamblers partnerships to owners is also ridiculous. It sounds like you don't even put up money. Buying a piece of a horse with a good sydicate costs around 10K-70K for 10 percent which usually covers all costs until the end of the year. Even if you buy half units it costs about $5K-$35K to buy into a horse. Then you are looking at about $5K if you own just 10% of the appx $50K per year costs, unless of course there are checks. Get real.