David Junior

Nostradamus · #1 09-30-2006, 07:36 PM

I hear so little of this horse, so let me make my prediction now, he will win the BC Classic.

Swap Fliparoo · #2 09-30-2006, 10:28 PM

Is he definitely going?

my miss storm cat · #3 09-30-2006, 10:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Swap Fliparoo

Is he definitely going?

Yes...

http://www.skysports.com/skysports/a...235331,00.html

Swap Fliparoo · #4 09-30-2006, 10:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat

Yes...

http://www.skysports.com/skysports/a...235331,00.html

Thanks!

King Glorious · #5 09-30-2006, 10:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Swap Fliparoo

Is he definitely going?

No. Tomorrow (Discreet Cat) and next weekend (Bernardini) will change a lot of the ambitious plans of these trainers. Not saying he won't be here for the Classic but I'd say it's much less than a definite at this point. Probably 50% or a little less.

kentuckyrosesinmay · #6 09-30-2006, 11:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious

No. Tomorrow (Discreet Cat) and next weekend (Bernardini) will change a lot of the ambitious plans of these trainers. Not saying he won't be here for the Classic but I'd say it's much less than a definite at this point. Probably 50% or a little less.

I agree, although they will probably try David Junior anyway. I think that Bernardini really has Invasor's camp worried, and Invasor is not a lightweight...

You know, I would love to see a Discreet Cat and Bernardini race each other one day...

If Bernardini goes in the Classic, I doubt Discreet Cat will. I hope that they throw Discreet Cat in the sprint, or either wait and race him in the Clark or the Cigar...

King Glorious · #7 09-30-2006, 11:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

I agree, although they will probably try David Junior anyway. I think that Bernardini really has Invasor's camp worried, and Invasor is not a lightweight...

You know, I would love to see a Discreet Cat and Bernardini race each other one day...

If Bernardini goes in the Classic, I doubt Discreet Cat will. I hope that they throw Discreet Cat in the sprint, or either wait and race him in the Clark or the Cigar...

I think Discreet Cat is the best horse in the country, if not the world. But I don't think he's fast enough for the Sprint. I'd love to see him in the Mile. I think he'd take that race easily.

kentuckyrosesinmay · #8 09-30-2006, 11:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I think Discreet Cat is the best horse in the country, if not the world. But I don't think he's fast enough for the Sprint. I'd love to see him in the Mile. I think he'd take that race easily.

You and me both...Discreet Cat is unbelievable. Yeah, the allowance he won was at seven furlongs, but the jock didn't even use him at all. With his running style, I think he could sit off the leaders in the sprint, and blow by them in the final sixteenth of the race. The horse is freaking fast. You may be very right though. I would really like to see him in the Cigar Mile and see him in the Met Mile next year. From there, it is on to an eventual Classic win after winning all of the major summer and early fall GIs, and then HOY...

I don't know how he would race on the grass...I'm still very new at the breeding aspect of this game...

King Glorious · #9 09-30-2006, 11:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

You and me both...Discreet Cat is unbelievable. Yeah, the allowance he won was at seven furlongs, but the jock didn't even use him at all. With his running style, I think he could sit off the leaders in the sprint, and blow by them in the final sixteenth of the race. The horse is freaking fast. You may be very right though. I would really like to see him in the Cigar Mile and see him in the Met Mile next year. From there, it is on to an eventual Classic win after winning all of the major summer and early fall GIs, and then HOY...

I don't know how he would race on the grass...I'm still very new at the breeding aspect of this game...

Breeding means NOTHING. He's a class horse so running on another surface isn't an issue. People make too much of an issue with all of this breeding stupidity. I think u go by class level and the horse's best distance in deciding a spot for him. Not the surface.

kentuckyrosesinmay · #10 09-30-2006, 11:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Breeding means NOTHING. He's a class horse so running on another surface isn't an issue. People make too much of an issue with all of this breeding stupidity. I think u go by class level and the horse's best distance in deciding a spot for him. Not the surface.

The Mile is on the grass and I don't know if he could run on the grass or not. An individual's genes, breeding, and inheritance should play a role when deciding whether or not to bet a horse that is switching to a new surface for the first time. Take Lawyer Ron for example. He couldn't run very well on turf, and when he switched to dirt, he all of a sudden won six races in a row...Grade II and III stakes races at that. Lawyer Ron is a quality dirt horse, but not a quality turf horse. Discreet Cat could very well be the same way. In fact, with his running style, I really don't think that he would be suited to the turf. I could be wrong though. It wouldn't be the first time nor will it be the last...

King Glorious · #11 09-30-2006, 11:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

The Mile is on the grass and I don't know if he could run on the grass or not. An individual's genes, breeding, and inheritance should play a role when deciding whether or not to bet a horse that is switching to a new surface for the first time. Take Lawyer Ron for example. He couldn't run very well on turf, and when he switched to dirt, he all of a sudden won six races in a row...Grade II and III stakes races at that. Lawyer Ron is a quality dirt horse, but not a quality turf horse. Discreet Cat could very well be the same way. In fact, with his running style, I really don't think that he would be suited to the turf. I could be wrong though. It wouldn't be the first time nor will it be the last...

It's my opinion that the better the horse, the fewer things they need to go their way in order to perform their best. The lesser the horse, the more they need. Lawyer Ron is a good horse. But he's not a great horse. Discreet Cat is potentially a great horse. He can run on any surface. Now whether or not u would want to bet on such a horse in that situation is different. I can understand not betting on him to do something that he has never done while facing the best in the world at the low price that he'll be. But he'd be my selection.

blackthroatedwind · #12 10-01-2006, 12:03 AM

What is this " he can run on any surface " nonsense? Based on what? His breeding? You're being silly. The likelihood that Discreet Cat can transfer his dirt ability to the turf is very small.

I realize your unfounded BC predictions for him are an internet free roll. There is no indication whatsoever that he will run in any BC race and it is certainly not like Godolphin to deviate from their well mapped out plans to simply take a shot.

The reason Discreet Cat missed races earlier this summer is because he is basically a laimo. They never intended on running in the Dwyer, regardless of what was printed, and that was due to his sore going nature. In fact, it was just that situation that allowed him to pay 5-1 in his debut. It was widely know that he was very talented but just as widely known that he had serious soreness issues. This is specifically why he is lightly raced.

The Bid · #13 10-01-2006, 09:30 PM

I wouldnt mind having a sore animal like Discrete Cat as a knock around horse.

The Bid · #14 10-01-2006, 09:31 PM

It is also ridiculous to think pedigree has nothing to do with horses taking to, or disliking a particular surface.

blackthroatedwind · #15 10-01-2006, 09:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Bid

I wouldnt mind having a sore animal like Discrete Cat as a knock around horse.

No doubt that one of the things that separates decent horses from exceptional horses is their respective abilities to run through soreness. There have certainly been many top horses that have run through soreness. Banshee Breeze is a recent top horse that comes to mind. Everyone I know that understands these things ( not myself ) said she was as sore a working horse as they saw. But, on raceday, she put it all together.

No doubt on raceday Discreet Cat puts those issues behind him. I would say, however, that they have a lot to do with his light campaign. After seeing him today I hope we get to see a lot more of him. He may not have beaten much but that was a scary display. It's not as though Valid Notebook is a total bum. Four of his last five races have produced Beyer figures in the high 90s and Discreet Cat laughed at him like he was a 10 claimer. Anybody that doesn't think Discreet Cat is capable of monsterous performances is kidding themselves. The only question left, and it's a legitimate one, is how he will do when challenged by a relative equal. I say relative because it isn't entirely clear he has an equal.

The Bid · #16 10-01-2006, 09:55 PM

I think the only equal rival for him would be Bernardini, and I wouldnt be quick to say Bernardini is even his equal.

The good ones run through their problems, they all get sore. You know how they go, sometimes the feel good, sometimes they dont. However, the real special ones will go on and show up every race.

DC trounced a pretty decent field today, that field wasnt as weak as many think. He didnt break all that sharp, he pulled a little, and he still smoked them. He is a very special horse.

King Glorious · #17 10-01-2006, 10:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

No doubt that one of the things that separates decent horses from exceptional horses is their respective abilities to run through soreness. There have certainly been many top horses that have run through soreness. Banshee Breeze is a recent top horse that comes to mind. Everyone I know that understands these things ( not myself ) said she was as sore a working horse as they saw. But, on raceday, she put it all together.

No doubt on raceday Discreet Cat puts those issues behind him. I would say, however, that they have a lot to do with his light campaign. After seeing him today I hope we get to see a lot more of him. He may not have beaten much but that was a scary display. It's not as though Valid Notebook is a total bum. Four of his last five races have produced Beyer figures in the high 90s and Discreet Cat laughed at him like he was a 10 claimer. Anybody that doesn't think Discreet Cat is capable of monsterous performances is kidding themselves. The only question left, and it's a legitimate one, is how he will do when challenged by a relative equal. I say relative because it isn't entirely clear he has an equal.

I have a question for u. I've heard from u and others about Discreet Cat not being the soundest or physically correct horse in the world for a while now. Not saying that this is not the case but my question is how does anyone know how he would respond to a tougher schedule? I take Barbaro for instance. On another forum, I questioned before the Preakness whether his training/racing schedule was by design or by necessity? Matz always said that the horse needed more time between his races and that he performed best with a lot of spacing. But how did he know that? After his first race, he was given a break and they never actually tried racing him on a short turnaround. So there was no way they could know how he'd actually respond to a quick turnaround because he'd never had one. So my question then was did they give him the long breaks because he was coming out of his races showing that he needed it (physically spent or sore perhaps?) or were they giving him the breaks just because they THOUGHT it was what was best for him in the long run? If it was because he needed it, then that could have been a precursor to something bad happening when they ran back quick in the Preakness.

Is Discreet Cat's light campaign because of numerous physical setbacks and out of necessity to give him time to recover from his races? Do u think that the presence of Bernardini in the family has allowed them to take a much more conservative approach with him than they might have taken, or needed to take, if he was the only star in a one-star stable?

Hope this makes sense.

blackthroatedwind · #18 10-01-2006, 10:10 PM

I'm not a trainer and don't know anything about the physical care of racehorses so I could only make fairly uneducated guesses but I would say it is highly likely that his physical issues have a great deal to do with his relatively light schedule. I guess when you have those concerns, especially with a supremely talented horse, you would tend to err on the side of caution.

I also agree that having Bernardini in the barn makes it easier to pass a race like the Classic. When you likely already have the favorite it certainly lessens the temptation to " take a shot " with another horse, so to speak.

One thing I will say is that in my experience even good horses tend not to perform up to their potential when they are placed, or sometimes rushed, into major races that they were originally planning on passing.

King Glorious · #19 10-01-2006, 10:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm not a trainer and don't know anything about the physical care of racehorses so I could only make fairly uneducated guesses but I would say it is highly likely that his physical issues have a great deal to do with his relatively light schedule. I guess when you have those concerns, especially with a supremely talented horse, you would tend to err on the side of caution.

I also agree that having Bernardini in the barn makes it easier to pass a race like the Classic. When you likely already have the favorite it certainly lessens the temptation to " take a shot " with another horse, so to speak.

One thing I will say is that in my experience even good horses tend not to perform up to their potential when they are placed, or sometimes rushed, into major races that they were originally planning on passing.

I agree with that. However, in this case, I don't feel like passing the BC was in the plan. I think they have been conservative in their public announcements but I really feel like in the back of their minds (maybe in the front), the BC has been a real possibility.

kentuckyrosesinmay · #20 10-01-2006, 10:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I have a question for u. I've heard from u and others about Discreet Cat not being the soundest or physically correct horse in the world for a while now. Not saying that this is not the case but my question is how does anyone know how he would respond to a tougher schedule? I take Barbaro for instance. On another forum, I questioned before the Preakness whether his training/racing schedule was by design or by necessity? Matz always said that the horse needed more time between his races and that he performed best with a lot of spacing. But how did he know that? After his first race, he was given a break and they never actually tried racing him on a short turnaround. So there was no way they could know how he'd actually respond to a quick turnaround because he'd never had one. So my question then was did they give him the long breaks because he was coming out of his races showing that he needed it (physically spent or sore perhaps?) or were they giving him the breaks just because they THOUGHT it was what was best for him in the long run? If it was because he needed it, then that could have been a precursor to something bad happening when they ran back quick in the Preakness.

Is Discreet Cat's light campaign because of numerous physical setbacks and out of necessity to give him time to recover from his races? Do u think that the presence of Bernardini in the family has allowed them to take a much more conservative approach with him than they might have taken, or needed to take, if he was the only star in a one-star stable?

Hope this makes sense.

Is Discreet Cat's light campaign because of numerous physical setbacks and out of necessity to give him time to recover from his races?

Yes.

Do u think that the presence of Bernardini in the family has allowed them to take a much more conservative approach with him than they might have taken, or needed to take, if he was the only star in a one-star stable?

No, this horse has some really smart connections that don't push their horses and do right by their horses.

Not saying that this is not the case but my question is how does anyone know how he would respond to a tougher schedule?

We don't know, and we won't ever know if DC can handle a tough campaign. The connections won't push him and they don't have to. I expect DC is going to need a similar campaign to GZ. When he runs, I can see that his galloping style would make him prone to soundness issues. To me, he runs like an unsound horse. He really hits the ground hard with his front end, but he is as fast as they come, which enhances his problems.

But how did he know that? So my question then was did they give him the long breaks because he was coming out of his races showing that he needed it (physically spent or sore perhaps?) or were they giving him the breaks just because they THOUGHT it was what was best for him in the long run?

The reason that connections know how much a horse can take is mostly a guess, but there are indicators. For instance, I think that Barbaro lost weight after a race. Barbaro could also have come out of races puffy or it may have taken him longer to recover from a race. He also may have had some underlying soundness issues.

These are all of my opinions and I hope it helps. There are probably some others on this board that are a little more qualified and knowledgeable in this subject area than I am though...