7/13: Belmont ($36k C/O); Arlington (7th-11th); Colonial (Derby/Oaks)

Kasept · #1 07-13-2013, 06:21 AM

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: NY-OC/N1X, 3+, 7f-T (P6, P3, DD)

$36k C/O starts here..

Very tricky start to sequence with host of well-matched contenders and presence of 3-1 Master Cip who is better than these on dirt but an unknown quantity trying lawn. Sire Master Command gets plenty of grass winners (20% overall), but the female -- while distinguished -- has modest turf positives. Dam Ticky Tacky is a half sister to excellent '94 Malibu winner Powis Castle (Rare Brick) and '97 La Troienne heroine Star of Goshen (Lord at War). An early Mike Puype trainee, Star of Goshen saw her career cut short by injury but has gone on to get Pioneerof the Nile and Forefathers as a broodmare..

Best Value: #8 Northern Tripp 20-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Master Cip 3-1 10th
Exotics Use: #5 Sky Blue Pink 12-1 5th
Super Add: #2 Suileabhain 12-1 3rd

7th: Solar Splendor, 3yo, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Excellent soph group that stayed home rather than try Virginia or American Derby. Feels like 2/3rds of this group can win..

Best Value: #2 Chamois 10-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Balance the Books 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 North Slope 5-1 5th
Super Add: #9 Notacatbutallama 4-1 WON ($13.00)

8th: CLM, 3+, 7f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Another exceedingly competitive group..

Best Value: #2 Fly Ride 6-1 7th
Next Best: #11 Best Actor 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Minescape 10-1 9th
Super Add: #5 Thunder Brew 4-1 3rd

9th: Man O' War (G1), 3+, 11f-IT (P3, DD)

Big opportunity for Boisterous to garner G1 win with Point of Entry sidelined. Optimizer a millionaire if 1st/2nd here and has every chance to get himself a top shelf stake skin..

Most Likely: #1 Optimizer 2-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Boisterous 9-5 WON ($5.10)
Best Value: #7 Al Khali 10-1 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Exclusive Strike 12-1 4th

10th: CLM, 3+, 5.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #11 Swiss Tart 3-1 7th
Best Value: #9 Regal Strike 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Good Feng Shui 5-1 WON ($7.70)
Exotics Use: #7 Little Wyatt 10-1 6th

11th: MCLM/$20k, 3+, 8.5f-T

Castellano (Fiddlers Chico) rode Freight last time, so hopefully he is aware that he cannot let that one get away too easily up front because there isn't much here in the way of early lick..

Most Likely: #9 Fiddlers Chico 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #11 Ocean Storm 10-1 8th
Next Best: #10 Ballymurphy 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Unbridled Band 5-1 4th
Super Add: #2 Solo Approach 8-1 3rd

<$200 P6 Play:

6: 6-8
7: 1-2-3-5-9
8: 2-11
9: 1
10: 11
11: 1-2-9-10-11

2x5x2x1x1x5 = 100 x $2 = $200

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-2-5-7-9-11
9: 1-6
10: 9-11
11: 1-2-7-9-10-11

6x2x2x6 = 144 x .50 = $72

ARLINGTON PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: Stars and Stripes (G3), 3+, 12f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Nick Tammaro produced some ugly numbers on Maker away from Kentucky on ATR Friday offering hope for beating Dark Cove. Suntracer reportedly leaning towards start here as opposed to Arlington H. later. Live in Joy will be winging away up front..

Most Likely: #1 Dark Cove 1-1 WON ($3.20)
Best Value: #2 Live in Joy 20-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Ioya Bigtime 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 The Pizza Man 5-2 3rd

8th: Modesty H. (G3), F&M-11.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

As in most of these Million Day Previews, expect an isolated leader and in this it's La Tia. Strathnaver the class but may not get the necessary pace in front of her..

Most Likely: #5 Strathnaver 3-1 8th
Next Best: #4 La Tia 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #1 Embarr 10-1 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Colonial Flag 5-2 6th

9th: American Derby (G3), 3yo, 9.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Mongolian Saturday the loose leader here with Coastal Breeze setting up shop behind. Wide open event..

Best Value: #9 Stormy Len 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 General Election 4-1 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Procurement 9-2 4th
Super Add: #10 Moro Tap 10-1 6th

10th: Arlington H. (G3), 3+, 10f-T (P3, DD)

As mentioned yesterday with Nick and Mike Beer, Beer Garden -- even with Leparoux -- should be on the engine here..

Best Value: #3 Najjaar 8-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Rahystrada 5-2 WON ($8.80)
Exotics Use: #3 Dullahan 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 Beer Garden 20-1 6th

<$150 P6 Play:

7: 1-2-3-4
8: 4-5
9: 1-2-9
10: 1-2-3-5-6-7

4x2x3x6 = 144 x .50 = $72

11th: Coach Jimi Lee, 3yo, 7f (DD)

Feels like a scrambler. Curious if Pitch N Roll (12-1) makes the trip from Erie for this because he'd be a fun inclusion if he does. Would be appropriate if Jimmy DiVito (Coach Jimi Lee's trainer) were to win this with Muppet Man. Treasury Bill's 2 flops were attempts past 7f..

Best Value: #4 Next Speaker 15-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Treasury Bill 7-2 10th
Exotics Use: #9 Pitch N Roll 12-1 8th
Super Add: #8 Believe in Kitten 15-1 4th

COLONIAL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: Virginia Oaks (G3), 3yo-F, 9f-Outer Turf (P3, DD)

Expecting Hold Our Destiny, who ran at DEL Wednesday, to SCR and that could put Nellie Cashman on a free lead. She has been a different filly since moving to the grass and stretching out and could take them a long way at a huge number..

Most Likely: #5 Praia 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #7 Nellie Cashman 20-1 WON ($41.60)
Next Best: #8 Three Hearts 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #11 Hedonemewrongsong 20-1 4th

7th: Virginia Derby (G2), 3yo, 10f-Outer Turf (P3, DD)

I'll pass on Rydilluc at 10f facing authentic pace pressure..

Most Likely: #3 CHARMING KITTEN 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #5 Jack Milton 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #9 Fear the Kitten 15-1 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Gefest 20-1 9th

.50 TRI: 3/5 with 3/5 with 4-6-8-9-10 (2x1x5 = 10 x .50 = $5)

Good luck!
Steve