8/30: Saratoga (Day 37-Riskaverse)

[Kasept]

Was rolling along through Thursday card at Spa when wheels came off for late quad. For a variety of reasons, happened to be against the winners of the 8th, 9th and 10th whom were 2nd and 3rd choices in their respective events and the reformed Arch Kingsley jumper that took the nightcap surprised nearly everyone. Two people did have $71.00 Hunter Forward and the rest of the P6 winners and took home $425k each as a result! Hunter Forward was one of those horses that got lost on the board off a 12-1 ML that respected his speed and 2012 form on the flat. Just 3 weeks ago, Hunter Forward had fallen in a hurdle event and dropped Kinsgsley when he went down. Twilight card starts at 2:30pm ET today as we reach Labor Day Weekend and commence the final 96 hours of the '13 Saratoga stand..


SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: NY-Law Enforcement, 2yo, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Ogremeister 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #1 Free Mugatu 4-1 WON ($9.60)
Exotics Use: #3 Double Gold 5-2 4th


2nd: NY-MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Blue Chips Only 5-2 5th
Next Best: #4 Sidearm 4-1 WON ($13.20)
Best Value: #5 Dream Only 15-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Wake Up in Malibu 3-1 3rd


3rd: OC/S-ALW, 4+, 7f (P3, DD)

Loophole in condition book rules allows Caixa Eletronica to keep running in these events..

Most Likely: #2 Saginaw 7-5 DNF-Pulled up
Next Best: #7 Bernie the Maestro 5-1 WON ($7.80)
Exotics Use: #1 Caixa Eletronica 2-1 2nd


4th: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 First Summation 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #8 Afuwa 10-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Honeychild 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Missy Bay 5-2 4th


5th: MCLM/$50k, 3+, 1m-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Gridiron Great 8-1 8th
Next Best: #9 Defiant 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Inchcape 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 Tiu 5-1 3rd


<$50 P4 Play:

2: 3-4-5
3: 2
4: 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8
5: 2-6-8-9

3x1x8x4 = 96 x .50 = $48


6th: OC/N3L, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Delightful Quality 6-5 2nd
Best Value: #5 Lion D N A 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Maracuya 5-2 WON ($6.50)
Exotics Use: #4 Alexandra's Grace 4-1 5th


7th: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Instrumental 9-5 3rd
Best Value: #8 Aesthetique 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Freud's Sunset 3-1 7th
Exotics Use: #2 Michonne 10-1 8th


8th: 5th Riskaverse, 3yo-F, 1m-IT (DD)

Excellent group. Quite of bit of pace on here..

Most Likely: #7 Bella Castani 7-2 8th
Best Value: #5 Promise Me More 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Midnight Watch 5-1 WON ($6.20)
Super Add: #1 Teen Pauline 9-2 2nd


9th: MCLM/$25k, 3+, 5.5f-T

Hodge-podge finale. #11 Dendrite (4-1) one of those career maidens you need to cover in case he found a field he can beat..

Most Likely: #4 Mr. William 5-2 WON ($6.20)
Best Value: #1 Powder Springs 20-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Velocci 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 It's Huge 10-1 4th


<$50 P4 Play:

6: 2-4-5-6
7: 3
8: 1-5-6-7
9: 1-4-5-8-10-11

4x1x4x6 = 96 x .50 = $48


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

SAR SCR/CHG'S