9/11: Belmont Park ($137 DBL C/O)

[Kasept]

BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m (P5, P3, DD)

Next to no speed signed on here. Looks like you need the 1-2-3 to assure safe passage in opening leg of P5..

Most Likely: #1 Wedding Toast 9-5 WON ($3.30)
Best Value: #2 Galloping Giraffe 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Cue the Moon 7-5 3rd


2nd: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Exceedingly tricky maiden group routing on lawn with Chad Brown firsters bookending the group of 7. #7 Shadow Banking (Harlan's Holiday) is full brother of terrific Stormy Len. Request is a $400k Dynaformer whose immediate family is modest but whose dam Shades of Gold (Seeking the Gold) is a half sister of the very good Harbor View turf runner Fortitude (Cure the Blues) whom Allen Jerkens helmed. McGaughey-Phipps H/B Social Affair (Giant's Causeway) is a half to MSW Dancing Forever (Rahy).Albertrani's Smooth Daddy exits highly rated Spa MDN heat that produced Base Case Scenario and next out winner Bobby's Kitten..

Best Value: #5 Smooth Daddy 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Shadow Banking 7-2 WON ($4.80)
Exotics Use: #3 Danaus 12-1 4th
Super Add: #2 Social Affair 5-1 2nd


3rd: MCLM/$16k, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Market Blaster 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #5 Dapper Draper 7-5 5th
Exotics Use: #3 El Dreamer 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 Streets of Fire 5-1 WON ($10.40)


4th: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 7f-T (P6, P3, DD)

$137k DBL C/O starts here..

Treacherous group to start C/O sequence..

Most Likely: #1 Star Grazing 3-1 (A) 4th
Best Value: #13 Lucky Nancy E. 10-1 (A) 9th
Next Best: #2 Easy Living 4-1 (B) 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Lil' Zilla 8-1 (B) 8th

"C" Considerations (In order of preference): #6 Lehigh Alum 15-1; #9 Maybry's Fortune 5-1; #3 Manner of Speaking 8-1


5th: CLM, 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

Precipitous drop for He's So Chic who couldn't be prepared for a Saratoga start at all. Has been able to string 3 works together at least readying for this spot but clearly there's been issues. As discussed with Andy Serling Tuesday on ATR, appears one of the all-or-nothing propositions for carryover players..

Most Likely: #3 He's So Chic 7-5 (A) 3rd
Next Best: #6 Chasing Moonlight 6-1 (B) WON ($11.80)
Best Value: #4 Buckeye Heart 8-1 (C) 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Sensational Slam 15-1 (C) 6th


<$50 P4 Play:

1: 1-2-3
2: 5-7
3: 5-8
4: 1-2-8-13
5: 3-6

3x2x2x4x2 = 96 x .50 = $48


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 3-5-7
3: 5-8
4: 1-2-8-13
5: 2-3-4-6

3x2x4x4 = 96 x .50 = $48


6th: MSW, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Quandary event with 2nd timers Barafg (KMc) and Delany Road (Clement) most eligible for improvement to laurels. Firsters Addison Run (Larry Murray up from Laurel), My Place (Hot-working Elusive Quality from Mott) and Berkette (Wide drawn for Pletcher-Johnny V) all merit consideration..

Most Likely: #2 Baragh 7-2 (A) 3rd
Next Best: #8 Delany Road (B) 7th

"C" Considerations (In order of preference): #1 Addison Run 12-1 4th; #7 My Place 3-1 WON ($7.00); #10 Berkette 6th; #8 Ever Awesome 12-1 8th


7th: MCLM/$40k, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (P3, DD)

Another spot where many may seek to rely on narrow approach with So Royal the focus, but there are several here well within range of the favorite..

Most Likely: #2 So Royal 2-1 (A) 4th
Best Value: #9 Love That Kelly 12-1 (B) 3rd
Next Best: #4 Princess Adelyn 6-1 (B) WON ($21.80)
Exotics Use: #8 Maintain the Magic 8-1 (C) 7th


8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-T (DD)

Best Value: #2 Border Song 6-1 (A) 3rd
Next Best: #4 Hothersal 2-1 (A) 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Film Shot 3-1 (C) 7th
Super Add: #3 Razorbill 4-1 (C) 4th


9th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T

Wow.. Some end to terrific day of challenging puzzles. Perhaps 2 could be eliminated here in first pass..

Best Value: #2 Papa Freud 8-1 (A) 5th
Next Best: #10 Ale 7-2 (A) WON ($10.40)
Exotics Use: #1 Yo Blue 5-2 (B) 4th

"C" Considerations (In order of preference): #8 Flowing Mane 15-1; #5 Logan Street 5-1 2nd; #4 Trainingforsuccess 12-1 3rd


<$150 P6 Play:

4: 1-10
5: 3-6
6: 2
7: 2 4-9
8: 2-4
9: 1-2-10

2x2x1x3x2x3 = 72 x $2 = $144


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-2-7-8
7: 2 4-9
8: 2-4
9: 1-2-4-5-8-10

4x3x2x6 = 144 x .50 = $72


Good luck!
Steve