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#1
06-09-2006, 09:55 AM
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Belmont Race 2 Kicks off the 1st Pick 4, Thoughts
Obviously have to respect anything Pletcher throws in there...
What about Revisionandverse, could he improve, looks like he had a wide trip and made up ground... Zito's horse might fire... Harty's horse could be ready as well... Then there's Calculated Risk... I don't want to go 5 deep, but it looks like a minimum of 3, throwing out Revisionandverse.... 
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#2
06-09-2006, 09:58 AM
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#5
06-09-2006, 10:05 AM
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ThinK I will use Shugs horse for the exacta, angle Oracle has explained, he was inside in his first race, ran against some good horses, and his number wasn't bad, should improve and be ready to go in here.
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#6
06-09-2006, 10:22 AM
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****!!!!!!!!!!! Pletcher won't be running, supposedly he has a cough. Back to square one. I just can't catch a break.
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#7
06-09-2006, 10:28 AM
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I guess it will be 5,6,7 Thanks for the update...
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#8
06-09-2006, 10:40 AM
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DAMNIT, I was going to use him as a single to key the pik. Now who the hell knows? Blah, its not even Blemont day yet and already have had a wrench thrown in the works.
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#10
06-09-2006, 01:44 PM
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Hey Mwindu, I cant fault your picks because I havent looked at a form but one thing jumps out at me- VERY, VERY LOGICAL! What are you expecting to make betting a $1 pick 4 using basically nothing but chalk in every race? You have no singles and you are using the morning line favorites in every single race. I think the only horse of low odds you threw out was the horse Gomez is riding in the 3rd.
Maybe try and find a single or even two singles, cut down the number of horses you are using in the 3rd race, and go for $5 pick 4's instead of $1. Otherwise, why even bother? You'd be just as well off using that $72 for a show parlay or finding one horse to bet to win.
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#11
06-09-2006, 01:46 PM
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Pletcher couldnt lose the 2nd and I was pumped. Cough,cough said the horse and hes gonna be scratched. Damn shame, he was a sure thing single.
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#12
06-09-2006, 01:50 PM
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Like I said, I havent looked at anything and I am never a believer in morning line odds, but in this case it seems like Jeff has a ton of horses who will land as the chalk in each respective race. Just think it would be wiser to find at least one single in that sequnce and up the number of times you will hit it if he does hit it.
A 4 race show parlay starting with $72 could also pay very well using 3rd choice type horses in each race. And you have a far better chance hitting one of those as you dont have to nail winners.
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#13
06-09-2006, 01:56 PM
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I think it will pay well, I didn't even look at the odds, but the odds of all chalk coming in are very low. We hit pik 4 for the Derby paid $750 for a $1 and for the Preakness paid $810 for $1, those were guaranteed pik 4's though. I just got Steve Crist's new book today and I am using it to fine tune my plays, some of his suggestions make alot of sense. This is how I play the horses, I want to hit a home run using $1 tickets, not bet heavily to win on one horse. This is a baseline ticket that I came up with, my buddy in Texas will call me tonight and we'll give each other's picks then come up with a ticket that's spread a little larger, probably be double by the time he gets done with it, there's been plenty of times, where we've lost money on a winning ticket, but we want to give ourselves the oppurtunity to hit a big one for a $1. We have 2 grand to work with tommorrow, so we are set to go deep.
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#14
06-09-2006, 02:07 PM
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Thanks, nice to be back and this new format is really nice. Good luck with all your bets, sounds like you & your buddy are in for a lot of juice with that kind of bankroll. Not sure what I am going to do. I havent really looked at anything but the entries.
Steve Crist is an amazing writer and even better handicapper. I've read all his stuff.
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#15
06-09-2006, 02:10 PM
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The thing I am learning from Crist's book is to have some spread tickets, but to really give yourself some oppurtunities to hit if it comes up chalky. We totally screwed up the Pik 4 tickets for the Derby and Preakness, we should have had that a couple of times each. The $1 ticket for the Derby cost us $265 and for the Preakness it was $235, we made money, but we were spread so far it cost us from hitting it for at least $2. Our best picks and mostly chalk came in for the first 3 races and we both really liked Bernardini and Barbaro for the Preakness, we should have played those races smarter, but we are learning.
We just started playing pik 3 and pik 4's, we were mainly trifecta players, but each of us had huge hits seperately playing pik 3's last Fall(My buddy really crushed one on BC Day, he had Pleasant Home, I didn't listen...), so now we are just playing pik 3's and pik 4's and are getting feels for them.
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#16
06-09-2006, 02:15 PM
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Linear Mode
