Get ready for smaller field sizes

[tector]

http://www.drf.com/news/simulcast-co...-tipping-point

[Calzone Lord]

It's been inevitable.

Smaller foal crops + more time between starts = fewer races and smaller field sizes.

As is, we have too many Grade 1's, too many Graded Stakes, and way too many stakes races in general.

The late 1980's had almost double the foal crop and horses racing with greater frequency ... yet the stakes schedule has only expanded since then.

[tector]

You can only water down the soup so much. At some point the customers will spit it out and say "What is this SH|t?"

[10 pnt move up]

6 horses per race...average. Not looking good, to be a serious player just must be able to play from all the races so you can pick and chose spots with actual horses in the race. Circuit play will almost assuredly die in the face of those stats.

[joeydb]

I gotta read it when I get home - DRF blocked here at work. I hope it turns around since it seems that some tracks had a good year this year. If attendance and/or handle creeps up even locally it might give some hope to the horsemen.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by joeydb

I gotta read it when I get home - DRF blocked here at work. I hope it turns around since it seems that some tracks had a good year this year. If attendance and/or handle creeps up even locally it might give some hope to the horsemen.

Yea but you cant create a race horse overnight, good years now would only affect future crops of horses.

[joeydb]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

Yea but you cant create a race horse overnight, good years now would only affect future crops of horses.

Of course you are right - I guess I should say I hope that this downturn is a local minimum from which we can progressively rise.

[randallscott35]

Inevitable.

[Cannon Shell]

I am always amazed at the lack of detail in virtually everything racing does. Yeah there are a lot fewer foals being born and it will certainly impact racing but everyone acts as though this will affect all circuits the same and this just isn't so. Taken as a whole the foal crop has huge disparities within in regards to quality and regional makeup. If the state of Washington loses 50% of its foal crop it isn't going to affect racing in NY at all because no horses racing in NY come from there and any horses imported to Washington from other areas to make up the difference would be of a lesser quality. The foal crop reduction should in theory affect the smaller tracks worst because there isn't that much of a reduction in the top of the line stock, no one stopped breeding quality mares to good stallions. However it is far easier to find cheap stock and lower quality horses race more often and horses from the top part of the food chain that aren't breeding caliber (virtually all male horses) eventually make their way down the ladder. So the top tier tracks shouldn't take that big of a hit (though they should address the other reasons why fields are smaller and in a lot of cases crappy-too many stakes, too few trainer with too many horses, etc) and the bottom level tracks should be ok too. The real danger is the middle tier tracks like Monmouth and Arlington and Delaware whose purses aren't nearly as good as the upper crust but who don't offer a steady stream of 5000 claimers like the lower tier tracks.

One sentiment that is always given that puts horsemen in a negative light is that most groups resist a reduction in dates and on the face of it, it seems like logical reasoning. However life doesn't operate in a vacuum and far too often date reductions come with a catch especially at tracks that are already hinting at hopes of eliminating racing even if the general public doesn't interpret those hints correctly.

[joeydb]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

However life doesn't operate in a vacuum and far too often date reductions come with a catch especially at tracks that are already hinting at hopes of eliminating racing even if the general public doesn't interpret those hints correctly.

Truer words were never spoken. And that really gets me pissed.

[Frost King]

Just out of curiosity, anybody know what percentage of the annual foal crop makes it too the races? The only thing I see happening, is that animals that would have been culls for racing, are going to end up in training to feed the racing shortage. In turn diluting the quality of racing even more.

[PatCummings]

Originally Posted by Frost King

Just out of curiosity, anybody know what percentage of the annual foal crop makes it too the races? The only thing I see happening, is that animals that would have been culls for racing, are going to end up in training to feed the racing shortage. In turn diluting the quality of racing even more.

This was discussed at the conference in the same presentation, and while I don't recall the exact numbers, the trends showed across all age groups, the percentages of horses within a foal crop racing at ages three through nine was down 10-20% since 2003.

It's not just the change in how much racing there is, or field size, but that fewer horses within each crop are making it to races, and actually hanging around.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by PatCummings

This was discussed at the conference in the same presentation, and while I don't recall the exact numbers, the trends showed across all age groups, the percentages of horses within a foal crop racing at ages three through nine was down 10-20% since 2003.

It's not just the change in how much racing there is, or field size, but that fewer horses within each crop are making it to races, and actually hanging around.

Fewer foals doesn't have to mean smaller fields.

[PatCummings]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Fewer foals doesn't have to mean smaller fields.

That really has nothing to do with what I'm saying was identified. Just a fact...fewer percentages from foal crops are racing relative to ten years ago.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by PatCummings

That really has nothing to do with what I'm saying was identified. Just a fact...fewer percentages from foal crops are racing relative to ten years ago.

Got you. I just replied to your quote...wasn't meant to be on your take....Seeing you quoted in lots of articles. Don't get overexposed like Miley.

[Frost King]

See what would be interesting to see, is what level is the foal crop historically speaking? Is it declining because we had a peak, or it been steady, and we now have a down turn. I still think, that the same number of horses will make the races. It just means that animals, that were relatively too slow to run, will make there way into the cycle, and all the other class levels will be artifically rased to fill the void. If tracks are not closing, and there are. Purses to be won, people will dress up donkeys to participate and get the money. It is just human greed.

[10 pnt move up]

Some decent points made on this, going to be interesting to follow.

[Danzig]

it all has to do with supply and demand. i expect foal crops to start rising again, since the last few sales seem to have exhibited strength that hasn't been there in a while.
farms have been cutting back on mares bred, since the buyers weren't there. the climate is changing. of course in this business it takes several years to get things turned around, but it will turn around.
that said, there are too many stakes, too many races, and too many commerical breeders.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Frost King

Just out of curiosity, anybody know what percentage of the annual foal crop makes it too the races? The only thing I see happening, is that animals that would have been culls for racing, are going to end up in training to feed the racing shortage. In turn diluting the quality of racing even more.

Horses who cant run, cant run. They don't make it. There isn't some sub section of potential maiden 10 claimers that isn't racing now that will be raced because of a shortage.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Danzig

it all has to do with supply and demand. i expect foal crops to start rising again, since the last few sales seem to have exhibited strength that hasn't been there in a while.
farms have been cutting back on mares bred, since the buyers weren't there. the climate is changing. of course in this business it takes several years to get things turned around, but it will turn around.
that said, there are too many stakes, too many races, and too many commerical breeders.

I'm not sure about this. Yes top shelf stock is demanding higher prices this year, but that does not necessarily transcend throughout the entire crop.

Without an influx of new owners, or at least a majority of the owners that we forced out of the game due to the economy collapse, the foal crop will remain stagnant. By and large it cost just as much to keep a 10 claimer as it does to keep a G1 winner. We need a sustainable model to makes owning low tier horses viable, and the syndicates to come back and buy them.