11/1 (SA): 30th Breeders' Cup -- Day 1

[Kasept]

Every year we arrive at this juncture and I feel compelled to trot out the Breeders' Cup invocation. Remember that whether you are successful or not, your ability as a horseplayer won't be defined over the course of 14 races. The Cup offers unique opportunities with chances to be rewarded for creative thinking and audacious risk-taking.

Some will come away delighted and some maddeningly frustrated, but all should approach these races as the curious and challenging puzzles they've become. No matter how well you 'handicap' the races, fields this deep and mysterious will produce several nearly unforeseeable results. Remember that you could be taking an 0-for going into Saturday's finale and get it all back and more in the 2:02.0 it takes to run Saturday's Classic.. Spend as freely as you can afford, get a little lucky, and here's hoping that everyone nets something that fills their account and makes them proud.

It's again been a pleasure trying to bring the flavor of the Cup to everyone listening, and I hope there was something offered that you can convert into winning tickets. Thanks to Santa Anita, ATR's sponsors and everyone who contributed so generously to the shows.. Best of luck this weekend!


SANTA ANITA


POST-SCRATCHES


CAREFULLY MONITOR MAIN TRACK CONDITIONS AGAIN FOR SPEED...


1st: OC/N1X, 3+, 6.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #8 Pure Loyalty 8-1 WON ($10.80)
Next Best: #11 U S Citizen 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Yankee Rebel 9-2 3rd
Super Add: #4 Somethings Unusual 12-1 2nd

$1 Exacta $130.00
$0.50 Trifecta $475.20


2nd: OC/N1X, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #13 Wild Dude 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #9 Cat Burglar 9-2 2nd
Best Value: #2 Got Even 6-1 9th
Exotics Use: #11 Drover Crazy 10-1 11th


3rd: Cal-Golden State Juvenile, 2yo, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Life Is a Joy 9-2 5th
Next Best: #7 Tamarando 8-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 California Chrome 3-1 6th
Super Add: #6 Sir Barclay 15-1 8th


4th: Cal-Golden State Juvenile Fillies, 2yo-F, 1m (P3, DD)

This is a real curiosity with all but Harlington's Rose stretching out around two turns for the first time..

Best Value: #6 Harlington's Rose 8-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Cal Gal 3-1 9th
Exotics Use: #9 Moving Desert 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Stole a Kiss 7-2 5th


5th: 2nd Twilight Derby (G2), 3yo, 9f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Terrific assembly for this. Charming Kitten kept good company all summer and should sit a good ground-saving trip under Johnny V in this spot. Irish Surf beat elders to break MDN, continued to win and wasn't disgraced in the John Henry despite wide posting. Returns to straight sophomore company..

Most Likely: #2 Charming Kitten 4-1 5th
Best Value: #1 Irish Surf 15-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Kid Dreams 3-1 10th
Exotics Use: #6 Dry Summer 10-1 3rd


<$50 P5 Play:

1: 8-11
2: 9-13
3: 1-2-7
4: 2-6-8-9
5: 1-2

2x2x3x4x2 = 96 x .50 = $48


6th: 6th Breeders' Cup Marathon (G2), 3+, 14f (P3, DD)

Race remains silly and superfluous to proceedings but that doesn't mean we don't want to bet on it. Gary Stevens gushed about lung capacity of Argentinean import Ever Rider and his morning circuits of SA oval remind you of last year's winner Calidoscopio. One earmark for success in this event has been class and Suns Out Guns Out (Empire Maker) and Worldly (A.P. Indy o/o Urbane) strike as types that will stay successfully..

Most Likely: #4 Ever Rider 7-2 DNF
Next Best: #8 Blueskiesnrainbows 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Suns Out Guns Out 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #10 Worldly 6-1 2nd


<$50 P4 Play:

3: 1-2-7
4: 2-6-8-9
5: 1-2-6-7
6: 4-8

3x4x4x2 = 96 x .50 = $48


7th: 7th Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G1), 2yo, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Lines appear clearly drawn here with Bobby's Kitten the American standout with Giovanni Boldini and Outstrip the serious Euro challengers. After that trio, you can tinker with some super fillers like Got Shades that get Stevens and was raced last time without Lasix in anticipation of this assignment..

Most Likely: #5 Bobby's Kitten 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #4 Outstrip 4-1 WON ($14.00)
Exotics Use: #2 Giovani Boldini 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #3 Got Shades 30-1 5th

$1 Exacta $23.10
$0.50 Trifecta $35.95


8th: 7th Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1), 3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Wildly entertaining group and with ML faves Verrazanno (3-1) and Goldencents (4-1) drawing poorly, things more open than they might have been. This race has regularly produced unanticipated winners and Holy Lute (20-1) is a prime upset candidate having moved into contention range in first main track start when 3rd in Indiana Derby last time. Needs further improvement to best some grizzled veterans and fellow 3yo's, but gains services of Mike Smith after sneaking into starting grid..

Best Value: #8 Holy Lute 20-1 10th
Next Best: #12 Goldencents 4-1 WON ($9.60)
Exotics Use: #4 Brujo de Olieros 8-1 4th
Super Add: #3 Hymm Book 15-1 5th


9th: 7th Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1), 2yo-F, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super Hi-5)

Came here convinced that Chad Brown's Testa Rossi and Ready to Act were going to be most formidable and while not completely dissuaded, enthusiasm is tempered by challenging outside draws... Fellow contenders Sky Painter and My Conquistadory got it even worse. Euros have bubbled to the surface in here

Most Likely: #8 Chriselliam 6-1 WON ($15.80)
Next Best: #2 Al Thakhira 6-1 14th
Exotics Use: #11 Testa Rossi 8-1 2nd
Best Value: #9 Dancing House 20-1 5th
H-5 Play: #6 Vorda 4-1 7th

$1 Exacta $79.20
$0.50 Pick 3 $105.25


10th: 30th Breeders' Cup Distaff, F&M-3+, 9f (DIS-CLS Double)

As good as the reigning mare has been, believe the 3yo fillies carry the day..

Most Likely: #5 Beholder 5-2 WON ($7.60)
Best Value: #3 Close Hatches 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Princess of Sylmar 9-5 6th

$0.50 Pick 3 $80.00
$1 Exacta $21.30


<$50 Distaff-Classic Double Play:

DIS: 3-5
CLS: 4-5-8-9-10

MAIN: 2x5 = 10 x $3 = $30


DIS: 2-4-6
CLS: 4-5-8-9-10

BACK-UP: 3x5 = $15


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-4-5
8: 3-4-8-12
9: 2-6-8-9-11-12
10: 3-5

3x4x6x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50 Pick 4 (4-12-8-5) Paid $403.90


Good luck!
Steve

[ontheoutside]

this is to steve and his guests
alot of badness has hit my life this year
losses of people, operations, downsize on job hours

but one thing i could always count on to bring me a smile and a good feeling is your show
the 3 hours helps me forget,or keep going
its a incredible show you put on
and i wouont miss it for anything
thank you for everything
and everyone in the forum also
your comments and knowlege of this game is astounding to me i mean it,all of you
good luck this weekend i hope someone in here rattles the vault

[mclem0822]

Originally Posted by ontheoutside

this is to steve and his guests
alot of badness has hit my life this year
losses of people, operations, downsize on job hours

but one thing i could always count on to bring me a smile and a good feeling is your show
the 3 hours helps me forget,or keep going
its a incredible show you put on
and i wouont miss it for anything
thank you for everything
and everyone in the forum also
your comments and knowlege of this game is astounding to me i mean it,all of you
good luck this weekend i hope someone in here rattles the vault

Great thoughts! Steve is the best outstanding coverage, very much appreciate the hard work.

[wild barry]

Originally Posted by mclem0822

Great thoughts! Steve is the best outstanding coverage, very much appreciate the hard work.

I'll second that. Listened wire to wire all week. Great show and looking forward to tomorrows show. Great racing all weekend. Enjoy the cup races.

[3kings]

Steve,
I hope we get 8-1 on Pure loyalty in the 1st. That is the horse I will play around with most and will either bolster my bank roll greatly or reduce it. Good luck.

[declansharbor]

We can't thank you enough Steve for your tireless efforts throughout the year!

[randallscott35]

Best of luck on the Cup.

[cal828]

Informative and entertaining shows Steve as usual. Enjoyed listening to the insights provided by you and your guests.

[Kasept]

SA SCR/CHG'S

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by 3kings

Steve,
I hope we get 8-1 on Pure loyalty in the 1st. That is the horse I will play around with most and will either bolster my bank roll greatly or reduce it. Good luck.

[Kasept]

We'll see about these two 1 mile races coming up but that second race indicates we could have a real problem with this track.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by Kasept

We'll see about these two 1 mile races coming up but that second race indicates we could have a real problem with this track.

This is part of the reason we ever went to synthetic. Just can't keep a track fair out here (this particular location, especially.)

[SCUDSBROTHER]

"Better Bet" was asked hard, early, and still was brave late.

[GPK]

Beholder. Wow.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by GPK

Beholder. Wow.

yes great stuff steve....cold exacta in tough race

[booner]

Nice Steve. Off to a really good start to BC weekend!!

[atolunch]

What a monster day, I hope you had a nice piece of that first race.

Congrats and thanks as always!

Here's to keeping it rolling tomorrow as well.

[Chipster]

Thanks for the awesome coverage this week, Steve.

Your show was the reason I made a profit today concentrating on the 2 horses that bookended the Mile.

You warned us this AM to watch out for a repeat of yesterday. This enabled me to focus on Lone F in the mile when early indications indicated the bias.

I had a conversation with a friend on my way to the local track that I did not want to play a biased track, but we have to acclimate to what we are given.

I took notes from the entire week of shows and it worked out on this day.

Thank You.

I hope you did well -

[Bogey]

Steve, Rock Solid - Congrats!!!

[skippy3481]

Great job as always steve