11/16: Churchill Downs (6th-10th)

[Kasept]

CHURCHILL DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

As discussed with Marty McGee, start to a potentially explosive P5 sequence. Note many getting first dirt tries (Thunder Run, Match Up, Sheikinator) or returning to it from poly (Q Two, Bro Rodrigeaux, Dynamic Import, Tall Boy); a formula for jump up efforts. I'm going to try to tiptoe through this P5 first leg with a single of Thunder Run because if it isn't him it could be any of 7 or 8 and there's too many other treacherous spots in the sequence to navigate..

Most Likely: #2 Thunder Run 3-1 5th
Best Value: #4 Match Up 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Bro Rodrigeaux 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Dynamic Impact 7-2 6th


7th: 10th Commonwealth Turf (G3), 3yo, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Thoroughly wacky cast for this with too many scenarios to comprehend. As mentioned with Marty, a repeat of River Seven's last over the squishy Woodbine lawn will beat these and there is some rain threatening Louisville today to soften the ground. Central Banker will certainly have to go from the 13 hole but Ruler of Love is likely out there to meet him into the turn. If either goes un-confronted, they will take the field a long way. Moro Tap (8-1), Golden Sabre (5-1), River Seven and insanely priced Braveman (50-1) all look to have tractable positions to take up as the major contenders. Why Battaglia thinks Braveman is a 50-1 candidate is mystifying considering his turf form is not appreciably different than that of Kaigun or Dorsett (Both 8-1). Braveman (Unbridled's Song) was a $150k weanling at KEE November '10 and is out of the Arch mare Anita Madden, famously named for the legendary Kentucky socialite and benefactress whose husband was the grandson of industry scion John Madden..

Best Value: #5 Moro Tap 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Golden Sabre 5-1 8th
Exotics Use: #4 River Seven 5-1 WON ($7.40)
Super Add: #8 Braveman 50-1 7th


8th: MSW, 2yo, 6.5f (P3, DD)

2nd maiden set of the sequence features cast of mostly first and second timers. Kenneally offers 2 debut colts with H Town Brown a half to fast early D' Funnybone and Gambler's Ghost a steady-working Ghostzapper that sold progressively well as a weanling ($22k), yearling ($30k) and 2yo ($150k). McPeek offers a pair as well in 2nd time starters/first time Lasix I'mbetterthangood SCRATCHED (turning back) and Money Fan (poly to dirt) and I think it's one of those two..

Best Value: #8 Money Fan 6-1 7th
Next Best: #4 H Town Brown 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #11 Gambler's Ghost 5-1 5th
Super Add: #6 Divine View 5-1 WON ($12.20)


9th: 23rd Mrs. Revere (G2), 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (DD)

Like the boys, a deep group for this. Pace will be key and it looks like it will get hot. Reaching for all the interesting prices I can find that will be coming from off the pace. Note meet leading rider Lanerie lands on Marty Wolfson outsider E B Ryder..

Most Likely: #8 Nellie Cashman 9-2 6th
Best Value: #3 Zero Game 30-1 14th
Next Best: #12 Dance Again 30-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #14 E B Ryder 30-1 12th
Super Add: #9 Remember Then 12-1 13th


10th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #10 Ouiser 9-5 5th
Best Value: #1 Sluiceway 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #12 Picture Me Mad 7-2 WON ($13.40)
Exotics Use: #4 Blissful Gold 5-1 7th
Hi-5 Play: #6 Borrowed Money 12-1 6th


<$50 P5 Play:

6: 2
7: 1-4-5-8
8: 4-8
9: 3-8-9-11-12-14
10: 1-10

1x4x2x6x2 = 96 x .50 = $48


<$50 P4 Play:

7: 1-4-5-8
8: 4-8
9: 3-8-9-11-12-14
10: 1-10

4x2x6x2 = 96 x .50 = $48


Let's get lucky!
Steve

[Kasept]

CD SCR/CHG'S

[lazytom]

Steve= Saturday night racing. How sweet is this. Lets make some $$$.