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#1
03-15-2014, 06:25 AM
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3/15: Gulfstream (6th-11th); Oaklawn (8th-11th)
Enjoyed a nearly perfect afternoon at Gulfstream Friday running the table with 'A' selections up to the nightcap when 'B' player Moonwalker overwhelmed the turf sprint finale. Happily settled for $3,500+ in P5 & P4 success, but could not close out the pesky Rainbow 6 that had potential to make the day particularly special with an additional 5 figure score. Was certainly the beneficiary of the stewards' stand surviving 2 inquiries, being put up in a third and avoiding a possible look-see in the first leg when $22 Night Song got the day off to a roaring start.
One thing that becomes apparent from the Rainbow 6 flirtation is that the quality payouts for very modest investment are available if you are at ease with the nature of the wager. The sequence paid nearly $17k Friday and it would not have taken too much tinkering with the simple $38.40 play to bring it home. And obviously, a larger budget play had high potential to hit. But as I've discussed on ATR, it's an action bet and $40 is about what I'm willing to throw at the daily equine lotto the wager becomes when the pool is in the $500k range on a daily basis. Some people are playing for $20, some for $200, some for $2,000. After the initial trepidation about the appropriateness of playing it at all other than on the distribution day, it's become clear that you get exactly the amount of 'action' you're looking for if it's only a superfluous portion of your bankroll. It's not a 'smart' bet, but it's fun. Hope everyone did great yesterday and got something from the sequence if they were playing along. GULFSTREAM PARK POST-SCRATCHES 6th: OC/N1X, 4+, 8.5f-T/72' (P6, P3, DD) Not all that much pace signed on here.. Most Likely: #2 Transcend 5-2 4th Best Value: #3 Chairman Garey 10-1 8th Next Best: #10 Hey Leroy 6-1 WON ($8.40) Exotics Use: #7 One Golden Road 4-1 6th 7th: OC/N1X, 4+, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD) Most Likely: #3 Coin Broker 5-1 WON ($3.80) Best Value: #6 Elmutahid 6-1 6th Next Best: #1 Harris 4-1 2nd Exotics Use: #5 Cary Street 3-1 3rd 8th: MSW, 3yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD) Some solidly pedigreed firsters and a few with square early efforts.. Most Likely: #4 What's Up Big Guy 5-1 3rd Next Best: #8 American Bond 4-1 7th Best Value: #6 Curlin's Gem 12-1 5th Exotics Use: #1 Tuneintobow 6-1 4th 9th: OC/N2X, 4+, 8.5f-T/0' (P3, DD) Utterly wide open affair with inscrutable pace scenario adding to chaos. Taking shots.. Best Value: #5 Offlee Fast 20-1 11th Next Best: #4 Pinball 5-2 WON ($6.40) Exotics Use: #2 Hakama 12-1 4th Super Add: #11 Rocking Hall 4-1 8th 10th: 32nd Honey Fox (G2), F&M-4+, 1m-T/72' (DD) Fun edition of this. Virtually all 8 have quality to them and are eligible in one scenario or another. Improving Triple Arch (12-1) could be on loose lead here and 'other' Arnold Run a Risk (15-1) will be right behind. Centre Court, Parranda and Tapicat all deserve respect of course.. Most Likely: #7 Tapicat 3-1 5th Best Value: #3 Triple Arch 12-1 7th Next Best: #5 Parranda 5-2 6th Exotics Use: #4 Run a Risk 15-1 8th 11th: MSW, 3yo-F, 7.5f-T/0' (Super Hi-5) Cover #2 Lawn Party in multis, but taking shot against within race.. Most Likely: #4 Forensic 5-2 3rd Best Value: #8 Annie Walker 20-1 7th Next Best: #10 Miz Lee 6-1 2nd Exotics Use: #6 Purrfect Ride 8-1 6th Super Add: #1 Scatcapade 5-1 4th <$30 P6 Play: 6: 2-3-7-10 7: 3-6 8: 4-8 9: 2-4-5 10: 3-5-7 11: 4 4x2x2x3x3x1 = 144 x .20 = $28.80 <$60 P5 Play: All A Entries 1 $0.50 pick P5: 3 with 4,8 with 4 with 7 with 4 - $1.00 A's with One B 2 $0.50 pick P5: 1,6 with 4,8 with 4 with 7 with 4 - $2.00 3 $0.50 pick P5: 3 with 1 with 4 with 7 with 4 - $0.50 4 $0.50 pick P5: 3 with 4,8 with 2,5 with 7 with 4 - $2.00 5 $0.50 pick P5: 3 with 4,8 with 4 with 3,5 with 4 - $2.00 6 $0.50 pick P5: 3 with 4,8 with 4 with 7 with 2,8,10 - $3.00 A's with Two B's 7 $0.50 pick P5: 1,6 with 1 with 4 with 7 with 4 - $1.00 8 $0.50 pick P5: 1,6 with 4,8 with 2,5 with 7 with 4 - $4.00 9 $0.50 pick P5: 1,6 with 4,8 with 4 with 3,5 with 4 - $4.00 10 $0.50 pick P5: 1,6 with 4,8 with 4 with 7 with 2,8,10 - $6.00 11 $0.50 pick P5: 3 with 1 with 2,5 with 7 with 4 - $1.00 12 $0.50 pick P5: 3 with 1 with 4 with 3,5 with 4 - $1.00 13 $0.50 pick P5: 3 with 1 with 4 with 7 with 2,8,10 - $1.50 14 $0.50 pick P5: 3 with 4,8 with 2,5 with 3,5 with 4 - $4.00 15 $0.50 pick P5: 3 with 4,8 with 2,5 with 7 with 2,8,10 - $6.00 16 $0.50 pick P5: 3 with 4,8 with 4 with 3,5 with 2,8,10 - $6.00 A's with One C 17 $0.50 pick P5: 5 with 4,8 with 4 with 7 with 4 - $1.00 18 $0.50 pick P5: 3 with 3,6,7 with 4 with 7 with 4 - $1.50 19 $0.50 pick P5: 3 with 4,8 with 3,9 with 7 with 4 - $2.00 20 $0.50 pick P5: 3 with 4,8 with 4 with 1,2,4,6,8 with 4 - $5.00 21 $0.50 pick P5: 3 with 4,8 with 4 with 7 with 1,6 - $2.00 Total: $56.50 <$60 P4 Play: All A Entries 1 $1.00 pick P4: 4,8 with 4,5 with 7 with 4 - $4.00 A's with One B 2 $0.50 pick P4: 1,6 with 4,5 with 7 with 4 - $2.00 3 $0.50 pick P4: 4,8 with 2 with 7 with 4 - $1.00 4 $0.50 pick P4: 4,8 with 4,5 with 3,5 with 4 - $4.00 5 $0.50 pick P4: 4,8 with 4,5 with 7 with 2,10 - $4.00 A's with Two B's 6 $0.50 pick P4: 1,6 with 2 with 7 with 4 - $1.00 7 $0.50 pick P4: 1,6 with 4,5 with 3,5 with 4 - $4.00 8 $0.50 pick P4: 1,6 with 4,5 with 7 with 2,10 - $4.00 9 $0.50 pick P4: 4,8 with 2 with 3,5 with 4 - $2.00 10 $0.50 pick P4: 4,8 with 2 with 7 with 2,10 - $2.00 11 $0.50 pick P4: 4,8 with 4,5 with 3,5 with 2,10 - $8.00 A's with One C 12 $0.50 pick P4: 5,7 with 4,5 with 7 with 4 - $2.00 13 $0.50 pick P4: 4,8 with 3,9,11 with 7 with 4 - $3.00 14 $0.50 pick P4: 4,8 with 4,5 with 1,2,4,6,8 with 4 - $10.00 15 $0.50 pick P4: 4,8 with 4,5 with 7 with 1,6,8 - $6.00 Total: $57.00 OAKLAWN PARK PRE-SCRATCHES 8th: 28th Azeri (G2), F&M-4+, 8.5f (P4, P3) 4yo debut for Close Hatches and she appears to have the jump on Oaklawn-loving Don't Tell Sophia.. Most Likely: #1 Close Hatches 7-2 WON ($3.20) Next Best: #4 Don't Tell Sophia 5-2 3rd Best Value: #6 Flashy American 6-1 6th Exotics Use: #7 On Fire Baby 7-2 4th 9th: 55th Razorback (G3), 4+, 8.5f (P3) Wild group where the 'all' button may be needed to assure safe passage in multis. Opportunity here to perhaps land a Pletcher stake runner at a price with Golden Lad. Steady developing Robsham homebred by Md'O is a half to G1 placed R Gypsy Gold and MGSW Broadway's Alibi and has been on a roll at Gulfstream topping next out winners Suns Out Guns Out and Valid in last pair. Should sit a nice trip behind the speed and we'll get the $11.00 that's being offered.. Best Value: #4 Golden Lad 9-2 WON ($12.00) Next Best: #1 Taptowne 3-1 3rd Exotics Use: #3 Street Spice 8-1 7th Super Add: #2 Right to Vote 10-1 4th 10th: 54th Rebel (G2), 3yo, 8.5f (DD) This race feels like an event that will not be run as in the manner it suggests on paper. Expect Tapiture will be more off the pace and Strong Mandate closer to it. Ride On Curlin moves inside, gains Desormeaux and may have the most upside in regards to options and value.. Most Likely: #4 Strong Mandate 2-1 4th Best Value: #2 Ride On Curlin 12-1 3rd Next Best: #3 Tapiture 9-5 2nd Exotics Use: #5 Hoppertunity 10-1 WON ($14.20) 11th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m Best Value: #3 Sea Shadow 12-1 3rd Next Best: #10 Haveyougoneaway 5-1 WON ($10.80) Exotics Use: #9 Ghost Locket 3-1 2nd Super Add: #6 Queen Daenerys 7-2 5th <$75 P4 Play: All A Entries 1 $1.00 pick P4: 1 with 1,4 with 4 with 3,10 - $4.00 A's with One B 2 $0.50 pick P4: 4 with 1,4 with 4 with 3,10 - $2.00 3 $0.50 pick P4: 1 with 2,5 with 4 with 3,10 - $2.00 4 $0.50 pick P4: 1 with 1,4 with 2,3 with 3,10 - $4.00 5 $0.50 pick P4: 1 with 1,4 with 4 with 6,9 - $2.00 A's with Two B's 6 $0.50 pick P4: 4 with 2,5 with 4 with 3,10 - $2.00 7 $0.50 pick P4: 4 with 1,4 with 2,3 with 3,10 - $4.00 8 $0.50 pick P4: 4 with 1,4 with 4 with 6,9 - $2.00 9 $0.50 pick P4: 1 with 2,5 with 2,3 with 3,10 - $4.00 10 $0.50 pick P4: 1 with 2,5 with 4 with 6,9 - $2.00 11 $0.50 pick P4: 1 with 1,4 with 2,3 with 6,9 - $4.00 A's with One C 12 $0.50 pick P4: 6,7 with 1,4 with 4 with 3,10 - $4.00 13 $0.50 pick P4: 1 with 3,6,7 with 4 with 3,10 - $3.00 14 $0.50 pick P4: 1 with 1,4 with 5,7,8 with 3,10 - $6.00 $0.50 Pick 4 (1/4/5/10) Paid $240.05 15 $0.50 pick P4: 1 with 1,4 with 4 with 1,11 - $2.00 Total: $47.00 Good luck! Steve
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 03-15-2014 at 06:47 PM. 
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#2
03-15-2014, 09:04 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#4
03-15-2014, 08:07 PM
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THX Dave.. Larry..
Oaklawn was a cleanup in aisle 5 today after the blind-without-a-cane efforts at GP. Hope everyone did OK and enjoyed the day.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#5
03-16-2014, 05:02 AM
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Nice hit @ Oaklawn Steve.
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