Derby Fig question

[prouse62]

Long time reader of this site with very few posts.

I have been going to the racetrack since I was six years old at old Sportsman's Park and always fancied myself a decent handicapper. But in the 5 years since I found ATR with Steve and this website, I have learned so much from so many of you both on this forum and on Steve's show. Thanks to you all for the profitable nuggets and angles over the years.

I don't know enough about figures to even be dangerous. I understand the basic concepts and fine them useful in spots, but am certainly not a speed figure handicapper.

So much has been made of the derby figure and two questions have been nagging me for the last 3 days. Maybe my questions are irrelevant and if they are, please tell me.

#1- How did the last quarter mile break down in 1/8ths? In other words, what was the 1/8th time from the 1/4 pole to the 1/8/th and from the 1/8th to the wire? Did CC go 13/13 or 12.5/13.5, 12/14??? which dovetails into my next question;

#2- I'm pretty sure we would all agree that CC was throttled down in the last 70 yards. I've watched the replay numerous times and Espinoza quit scrubbing probably 100 yards from the finish and enjoyed the ride. I suppose there is really no way to know, but if Victor rides CC out past the wire, what does that do to the raw time? Does it make a difference of 3/5ths of a second? 1/5th? 1 second? Let's say for the sake of argument that a full out drive past the wire knocks 3/5ths off the raw time and they go in 2:03 flat...obviously still not an impressive time historically, but what does that do to the Beyer number?

Appreciate any insight and thanks again to many of you and Steve especially who provide an unbelievable forum for all of us who love to game to come together. Thanks

[philcski]

At 10f a 1/5th of a second equals approximately 1.5 points on Beyer... That being said the "geared down" argument is always questionable on how much time was actually lost, good horses that aren't lazy really don't slow down unless the bit is actually restrained. Net result, I would say none.

[Kasept]

Prouse,

Thanks for posting and the kind compliment. Start in the Derby figure thread Doug initiated. Many elements covered there.

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=53863

The internal eighths of the final quarter need to come off the Trakus charting or from a hand timing of the stretch run. And as Phil suggests and as Doug did as well, the 'geared down' might translate into a fifth of a second.

[Alabama Stakes]

what was the most important thing you learned from the derby, Boss. Time was slow, why so slow ?