Paco Lopez

[Calzone Lord]

On Saturday, he became the first jockey to ever win 7 or more races on a card at Monmouth Park.

Monmouth Park is a pretty old track. It's been around since 1870. I believe it's run a summer meet continuously since 1946. So, it's a respectable accomplishment.

This is a guy who belongs on the big stage.

2014: 94-for-476 (20% wins) $2.20 ROI
2013: 231-for-1,050 (22% wins) $2.14 ROI


Career stats in dirt routes:

366-for-1,688 (22% wins) $2.09 ROI


Career stats in Graded Stakes on dirt:

100-14-17-10 (14% wins) $2.71 ROI

His ROI is also $2.72 in Graded Stakes races on Turf.


There are few jockeys over the last 25 years, who've posted ROI #'s like that, from sample sizes like that, across such a wide variety of categories.

You're talking about only a young Ramon Dominguez (Delaware and Maryland) a young Garret Gomez (Hawthorne, Sportsmans, Arlington) and Jason Lumpkins (Thistle Downs)

Dominguez eventually moved to NY and overtook the NYRA colony. Gomez eventually left Chicago and, despite all kinds of personal problems, became an eclipse champion jockey. Lumpkins was barred from Thistle Downs. He went and set records at Turfway Park and almost dethroned Russel Baze in Northern California -- becoming the first jockey to seriously challenge him in well over a decade.

Paco has been riding Gulfstream in the winter and Monmouth in the summer -- that's a higher level of competition than Delaware/Maryland, Chicago, and obviously light years better competition than Thistle.

[pointman]

I posted over the winter that the more I watch this guy ride, the more I like him. He is an aggressive rider that has no problem using a speed horses speed properly and puts his horses in places to win. I would love to see him move his tack to New York, I think he would do very well in the top colony.

[fantini33]

Gets his mounts in position by moving forward with them. Kid is the goods.

[jms62]

Paco will geta lot of premium mounts this summer with Bravo riding in New York. Time was you can get an occasional overlay with him at Monmouth.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by pointman

I posted over the winter that the more I watch this guy ride, the more I like him. He is an aggressive rider that has no problem using a speed horses speed properly and puts his horses in places to win. I would love to see him move his tack to New York, I think he would do very well in the top colony.

I'd love to see him get a shot in the Belmont Stakes.

There were some truly terrible jocks in the Preakness. Luis Contreras and Julien Pimental...they have piss-poor ROI numbers on weaker circuits.

I'm leaning towards Wicked Strong in the Belmont. Rajiv Maragh is a good sprint jockeys.

Dirt Sprint: 640-for-4,428 (15% wins) $1.72 ROI
Synthetic Sprint: 14-for-75 (19% wins) $1.95 ROI

But his numbers are piss poor in route races...

686-for-5,798 (12% wins) $1.45 ROI

Dirt Routes: (13% wins) $1.48 ROI
Turf Routes: (10% wins) $1.45 ROI
Synth Routes: (7% wins) $1.27 ROI

27.5% loss on a dollar from a sample size of close to 6,000 races is pretty brutal. It's close to double the takeout, from a very large sample.

He's been fine riding Wicked Strong in the past, but I'd rather have Maragh on a sprinter.

If Ride On Curlin runs -- and Rosario has to choose between him or Tonalist -- a guy like Paco should be considered for the open mount. He won't be, but he should be.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by jms62

Paco will geta lot of premium mounts this summer with Bravo riding in New York. Time was you can get an occasional overlay with him at Monmouth.

Yeah, he'll be on a lot of chalk with Bravo out of the way.

Bravo at Monmouth Park since 1998:

1,248-for-5,106 (24% wins) $1.58 ROI

Short priced horses generally outperform longer priced horses from an ROI standpoint. Bravo's ROI stats suck at Monmouth. When you're on a parade of short-priced horses and you're only $1.58 -- that's pretty bad.

[tywizard]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I'd love to see him get a shot in the Belmont Stakes.

There were some truly terrible jocks in the Preakness. Luis Contreras and Julien Pimental...they have piss-poor ROI numbers on weaker circuits.

I'm leaning towards Wicked Strong in the Belmont. Rajiv Maragh is a good sprint jockeys.

Dirt Sprint: 640-for-4,428 (15% wins) $1.72 ROI
Synthetic Sprint: 14-for-75 (19% wins) $1.95 ROI

But his numbers are piss poor in route races...

686-for-5,798 (12% wins) $1.45 ROI

Dirt Routes: (13% wins) $1.48 ROI
Turf Routes: (10% wins) $1.45 ROI
Synth Routes: (7% wins) $1.27 ROI

27.5% loss on a dollar from a sample size of close to 6,000 races is pretty brutal. It's close to double the takeout, from a very large sample.

He's been fine riding Wicked Strong in the past, but I'd rather have Maragh on a sprinter.

If Ride On Curlin runs -- and Rosario has to choose between him or Tonalist -- a guy like Paco should be considered for the open mount. He won't be, but he should be.

Curious whether you have stats for likely jocks of Belmont stakes. Dirt races at Belmont over 9F?

[NTamm1215]

If Rosario opts for Ride on Curlin (which would be shocking to me) then I hope/expect Jose Lezcano to get the mount. Lezcano's lifetime ROI on dirt at Belmont is $2.08 with a 16.8 win percentage. I'm a Lezcano fan.

[PatCummings]

Joao Moreira rode 8 winners from 8 mounts in Singapore last September. Only race he didn't have a mount was for apprentice riders. Avg field size in races he won was 11. Best single day performance I've witnessed to date.

[Arletta]

Originally Posted by PatCummings

Joao Moreira rode 8 winners from 8 mounts in Singapore last September. Only race he didn't have a mount was for apprentice riders. Avg field size in races he won was 11. Best single day performance I've witnessed to date.

He deserves his own thread then. Quite an accomplishment!

[Benny]

Originally Posted by jms62

Paco will geta lot of premium mounts this summer with Bravo riding in New York. Time was you can get an occasional overlay with him at Monmouth.

Yes he will,especially with both Bravo and Trujillo not there. Look for Castro to get alot better mounts, and don't discount veteran Ferrer on the grass too. There should be alot of jocks getting better mounts now.for better odds as Paco will dominate. Also CC Lopez is at Indiana now adays.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Benny

Yes he will,especially with both Bravo and Trujillo not there. Look for Castro to get alot better mounts, and don't discount veteran Ferrer on the grass too. There should be alot of jocks getting better mounts now.for better odds as Paco will dominate. Also CC Lopez is at Indiana now adays.

When all 3 were at Monmouth you were able to sneak in a nice price or 2 on Paco or Trujillo. Between the 3 they probably won about 70% of the races./

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

If Rosario opts for Ride on Curlin (which would be shocking to me) then I hope/expect Jose Lezcano to get the mount. Lezcano's lifetime ROI on dirt at Belmont is $2.08 with a 16.8 win percentage. I'm a Lezcano fan.

David Grening ‏@DRFGrening · 3m
John Velazquez confirmed to ride Ride On Curlin in Belmont, per Gowan. Rosario committed to Tonalist.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

David Grening ‏@DRFGrening · 3m
John Velazquez confirmed to ride Ride On Curlin in Belmont, per Gowan. Rosario committed to Tonalist.

hmm. Intense Holiday not going? Its a Pletcher horse that JV rode in Derby.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

hmm. Intense Holiday not going? Its a Pletcher horse that JV rode in Derby.

Maybe Mike Smith gets the mount back. Hopefully he'll be there to ride Palace Malice too.

[Revidere]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Maybe Mike Smith gets the mount back. Hopefully he'll be there to ride Palace Malice too.

I hope you're right Nick.

[tywizard]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Maybe Mike Smith gets the mount back. Hopefully he'll be there to ride Palace Malice too.

I was thinking Smith might opt for Commissioner...Arkansas Derby wasn't a great outcome but he looks like more of a 12F horse than IH (who I actually liked a lot before Derby so no real knock).

[Calzone Lord]

Lezcano is another excellent jockey. I agree with NTamm. He'd be a perfect fit on any closer in this race.

I hate to see the same old names Mike Smith, Gary Stevens, Johnny V, etc always get the choice open mounts. Those guys, at this stage of their career, are clearly inferior to a guy like Paco Lopez.

Really, Victor Espinoza is a much better dirt route jockey than Smith, Stevens, or Johnny V.

The trainers are the king-makers. Smith, Stevens and Johnny V. are all very good jockeys and all were better earlier on in their career -- but they're definitely overrated in a sense. Especially at this point in their careers.

If the "Dumb Ass Partners" sell California Chrome to a major owner, and he gets moved from Art Sherman. Victor Espinoza never keeps that mount.

[Calzone Lord]

Look at Luis Saez -- I'm not even a fan of his by any stretch -- but he gets booted off of Will Take Charge for Gary Stevens for no real logical reason.

[10 pnt move up]

Your are campaigning for the guy, all he has to do is move to NY or Socal and prove it like the rest of those riders. Its not that big a thing to do if you can ride and do the other things it takes to get good mounts.