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#1
08-16-2014, 01:48 AM
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Arlington Million Day & Saratoga - Saturday Aug. 16
Been a great summer so far, and with there being a lot of value catching my eye for Saturday, here’s to hoping the roll continues. Starting this long post with Arlington...
Race 3: Wasn’t a fan of much in this race. #7 Live in Joy was roasted in a quick tempo last out and Castellano can put him in a better spot here. Has struggled for consistency since the claim, but this isn’t a strong encounter and he may be sitting on a big one, especially if the turf comes up firm. #10 Guilt Trip is SCR... #1A Cougar Ridge is a last out winner, and Geroux needs a winner somewhere. I'll replace #10 with him. #3 Positive Side might want the wire sooner. Exotics. Same goes for #8 Sweet Luca. Frankie needs his magic with #11 Tiz Sardonic Joe. $0.60 Tri 1, 7/1, 3, 7, 8, 11/ALL $28.80 Race 4: Baby maiden turf route…playing pin the tail here… #14 Willing to Travel didn't draw in... #11 Inavanti has had some solid works for good connections. Dam won two turf routes, and being by Kitten’s Joy won’t hurt either. Being slightly put off by the yearling price, however. #5 Safe At Sea is all turf. Good works for a solid outfit. May want even further. #9 Luck of the Kitten faded off a slow pace on his debut at the SPA, and while he can win this I think he’ll be overbet. #12 Swift Journey had a stop and start turf debut and will learn from that experience. Has a chance to light it up. $0.60 Tri 5, 11, 12/5, 9, 11, 12/3, 4, 5, 6, 9, 10, 11, 12 $32.40 Race 5: #6 Colonel Joan had no chance from an impossible spot last time, similar to her first run this season which was also on the poly. She may have just been sucking along in her two turf runs last season, but a repeat of either of those and she wins this at a good price. She’s working better for this, and Rosario gets a live catch ride, assuming he gets her in a good spot not too far back. #2 High Wire Kitten was short last time and ran well considering she had a wide post and was deep throughout. Will be better for this, and look who rides. Needs a career best, but it is within reach. #10 Zubi Zubi Zu ran second a decent filly and should get a good trip. Another that needs to and can improve. #5 V V Goodnight won both of her races against weaker at Tampa and may get too far back in a race without a lot of speed. $0.60 Tri 2, 6, 10/2, 5, 6, 10/2, 4, 5, 6, 8, 10 $21.60 Race 6: There is an abundance of speed in this event, and I think #1 Stormy Pacific can get a déjà vu perfect trip as he did in her lone try over the course and distance. Eduardo elects this of the two Bennett runners, and note the two quick works. Ready to roll at a price. #5 Bourbonize is the horse with the form and the one to knock off. Should handle the surface but there’s always that element of doubt. #8 Mr Thunder Boy is the stablemate of my pick, and he was extremely impressive breaking his maiden. Minor concerns with the small layoff and post, and he won’t get as good of a trip as last time. In with a chance. #10 I Got It All couldn’t handle the two-turns at PRM, but may be feeling the breeze the entire race. #3 Puppy Manners should get a nice trip, but I’m unsure about the quick turnaround off the claim as well as the one-turn. #4 Sultry Cat burst away on debut and should relish the return to synthetic, but McPeek is quite icy on the major circuits at the moment. Race 7: #7 Havana Beat doesn’t have the flashy form that most Euros do and that makes him a big price, but that hidden form is due to the fact that he has been contesting some very prestigious affairs. He lacks consistency, but his A game makes him dangerous here. Although most of the overseas runners did alike, I like to see that he got accustomed to the course with a brief breeze on Thursday. Note that he wasn’t far behind Ghurair back in April ’13, and we’ve already seen what he’s done on this side of the pond. #3 Big Kick has been quite impressive in his last two. Very wary of that happening again. #10 The Pizza Man got a brilliant front-end ride by Geroux last time. May not be this type of class, but 11 for 16 is hard to argue with. #11 Suntracer probably ran a better race than #10 who got the soft lead, but he seems to have gotten camera shy lately. #5 Moment In Time is a ridiculous price at 20-1 ML. The distance will be no problem, and she’s shown she can ship over here and run well. However, I don’t like when they ship over fairly quickly between races---in fact she’s had three starts since July---and I think she’ll want a bit more rain in the forecast. On the fence. That’s also why I’m not taking #9 Eye of The Storm as she ran 9 days ago in Ireland… #2 Dandino won this event last year, but his two runs this year have been quite unspectacular, to say the least. Needs a complete form reversal in this somewhat tough event. Not for me at a short price. #8 Admiral Kitten, while not winning, had quite the kick last time but I think this distance might stretch his limitations. $0.60 Tri 3, 7/3, 7, 10, 11/ALL $28.80 $5 P3 7/2/5, 9, 10 $15 Race 8: The SCR of #3 really changed the complexion of this wide-open race. #9 Tourist should get a fairly easy lead and he seems to have quite the ability, but I’ll let him prove to me that he can stay the trip. #2 Highball is inclined to improve more so than the others and that makes him extremely dangerous. Closed decently after getting too fired up on debut, and he made a strong move to win his maiden. Had a lot of things against him last time in terms of the shipping and the trip, and with the addition of blinkers will hopefully sit closer to the leader, assuming he gets a clean break for once. Two turf breezes and he gets Frankie today. Loving the 15-1 ML. #6 Adelaide got a perfect trip in the Belmont Derby and was still beaten in the final strides. The quick shipping that I mentioned earlier may have been a factor, but I’ve never been convinced by this colt. I played against him at Ascot, did the same at Belmont, and while I’ll use him here, he’s far from a standout. #1 Global View is training for this much better than he was leading up to the Belmont Derby. A return to his previous form and he will be flying to the wire. #5 Sheldon was actually pretty impressive in that Belmont race after encountering trouble at crunch time. I like that Castellano is aboard, but I just fear that he’ll get too far back in a dawdling pace. #4 has gotten two perfect trips in a row, but I’m vary of the form of that race (Wallyanna)…#7 cut the corner last time and the win is more impressive on paper. $0.60 Tri 2/ALL/ALL and ALL/2/ALL ($36) Race 9: On her day #5 Stephanie’s Kitten has an explosive kick that should relish the extra sixteenth. Her last 1/8th in the Diana was 10 3/5…There will be pace in here and I think she’ll roll past in the stretch. #9 Alterite needed the run last time and is the class of the race. Chad has the two to beat. #10 Sparkling Beam needed a few runs this season to get back to her best, but her runs last summer make her a big contender, and note that of all the Euro lines she has the three highest Timeform ratings. #1 Just The Judge hasn’t carried her form from 3yo to 4yo, but she could be rounding into shape for this one off a solid G1 performance and took to the course well on Thursday. #8 I’m Already Sexy is 4 for 4 on the Arlington turf course. She hasn’t been much of a factor in her other tries against this type, but she sizzled along through quick paces last Aug/Sept, including one on Million Day, and crushed them both times. Affinity for the course may be a big factor. If the course comes up wet, then #6 Tannery gets upgraded. $0.60 Tri Box 1, 5, 8, 9, 10 $36 Race 10: Small but tricky field. #2 Smoking Sun ran a career best second in the Singapore Airlines International Cup when sandwiching two top class HK runners. Improving 5yo will flourish in the conditions and I’m all over the 9-2 ML. #6 Real Solution won last year’s renewal via DQ. He’s in the form of his life, and is the North American horse to beat. #5 Up With the Birds is the forgotten runner. Pierce has done a great job conditioning him and he will be completely primed for this one. #1 Hardest Core is being inexplicably ignored here. Since the addition of Lasix and added distance he has become a very good horse, and he’s put in two smashing runs since being gelded. Has tactical speed in a paceless race and I can easily see him pulling a feel-good shocker. I’ve never bought into the Magician (#3) hype, and I think he’s a very beatable favourite. #4 Finnegans Wake finally got the breakthrough last time, but needs more to win this. #7 Side Glance was a tough luck third last year but is rated a notch below the best in here. Race 11: Head-scratcher but I thought #4 Maria Maria was a bit of a standout at a price. Her race was lost on the first turn in the Oaks, and her turf run back in May was pretty good as she showed a quick kick late. As a filly she ran second to Bobby’s Kitten and Global View at Tampa, and that’s more than good enough here. It’s a risk to single, but this P5 could pay huge. Race 12: Great race to end the card and the P5… #8 Hypatia is a FTS and it wouldn’t take much in this. Nothing overly inspiring from the worktab, but Tribal Rule does well with his progeny on synthetic so that’s something to go by. Could be the best of a bad bunch. #10 Little Bit o’ Soup takes the suspicious plunge off the claim. Her best wins this, but a lot of mixed signals are being given. $0.60 Early Pick Four Race 3: 1A, 7 Race 4: 5, 9, 11, 12 Race 5: 2, 5, 6, 10 Race 6: 1, 5, 8, 10 $76.80 $0.60 Middle/Stakes Pick Four Race 7: 3, 7 Race 8: 1, 2, 5, 6 Race 9: 1, 5, 8, 9, 10 Race 10: 1, 2, 5, 6 $96.00 $0.60 Pick Five Race 8: 1, 2, 6 Race 9: 1, 5, 9, 10 Race 10: 1, 2, 5, 6 Race 11: 4 Race 12: 8, 10 $57.60 No late P4 play as I hopefully will be alive in the P5. And Saratoga... Race 8: This is as tough as it gets to start a sequence. Great field with fantastic wagering opportunities. #6 Dream Saturday was a good winner at GP back in May. Ignore the turf, and last time he got cooked up front in the slop. Nevin has had him for a good number of weeks now, and she’ll have him primed for the upset. #5 Surfing U S A has shown a bit of ability in his four lifetime starts and from this post will be the one to beat. #3 Demander was a big priced maiden winner at GP, but in reality should never have been those odds. Put a line through the turf, and he wasn’t as effective last time going two-turns. Will give it a go at a huge price, although Solis and Wilkes have been pretty cold. #2 demolished them in his only previous start for the barn…#4 needed his return run…#11 had it rough last time and can improve back to last year’s SAR races…#12 is SCR... #1 may need one…#13 won’t make the front from that spot… Race 9: #7 Mobridge was a very impressive winner when capping off a big day for me in the nightcap on Stars and Stripes Day. No reason he can’t repeat here and I’m with him to give me another big score. Will go deep in the P4, but he's my key in exotics. I think that #4 Western Tryst will appreciate the step-up in trip, and Irad was on fire on Friday. My price play in this event. #2 Orino has done his best racing when on or close to the lead through slow fractions. There is other speed in here and he can get buried on the rail. However, I will toss him in just in case. #11 and #12 didn't draw in... $10 Double 7/5 Race 10: I’m taking #5 Got Lucky here as a single. Dangerous play, I know, but I really don’t think #8 Stopchargingmaria will stay the full 10f. GL did not have an easy trip last time and showed her heart in winning in extremely game fashion. Her pedigree says the distance won’t be a problem, and with the blinkers on hopefully will sit a bit closer. It’s tough to single Jose Ortiz, but I think it will pay off. Nothing else in here interests me on the win line. Race 11: #4 Request was beaten by an impressive winner last time, and this is an easier field for him to continue his early promise. Beat Mr. Speaker in his debut… His stablemate, #1 Innovation Economy, made a big move and won on debut back in October. Hasn’t been seen since, but Chad can have him ready here. #9 Shaun’s Blessing hung off an early move in his second start. LoPresti’s brought him up early to work here and has a shot. $1 Pick Four R8: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 11 R9: 2, 4, 7 R10: 5 R11: 1, 4, 9 $54 Good luck! Last edited by Kitan : 08-16-2014 at 12:36 PM. 
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#2
08-16-2014, 08:49 AM
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You might have answered this before but where can you play a ticket for the .60 cent variety?
I know at Woodbine you can play 20 cents, so I get the x3 designation, but I'm not sure you can do that from into a track that doesn't accept the 20 cent variation.
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#3
08-16-2014, 11:24 AM
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scratches
http://www.equibase.com/static/latec...gesAP-USA.html
Thanks for the writeup kitan, hope you well. Good luck 
__________________
The virtue of a man ought to be measured, not by his extraordinary exertions, but by his everyday conduct. Blaise Pascal
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#4
08-16-2014, 12:37 PM
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Thanks Benny, you as well.
Scav, up here in Canada there is no $0.10 denomination for wagers. The minimum is $0.20 and increases at those intervals. $0.10 minimum becomes $0.20, and $0.50 becomes $0.60. It's worked in through the commingling with the currency exchange rate and all that fancy jazz.
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#6
08-16-2014, 08:11 PM
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Picks today weren't too bad, but wasn't really able to string anything together from a wagering perspective. The late jockey change on the 2 in the AP nightcap was huge, but the race was so bad that I didn't even pay attention.
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