8/27: Saratoga (Day 35; P. G. Johnson)

Kasept · #1 08-27-2014, 06:49 AM

SARATOGA RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: ALW/N1X, 4+, 19f-National Fences (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 All the Way Jose 2-1 WON ($5.50)
Next Best: #6 Albany Road 6-1 3rd
Best Value: #9 Overwhelming 20-1 8th
Exotics Use: #5 Witor 10-1 6th

.50 TRI: Key 3-6 1st/2nd with 2-4-5-8-9 (2x1x5 + 2x5x1 = 20 x .50 = $10.00)

2nd: MCLM/$75k, 3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Just 6 but very tricky group with potential for Alexndeed, Hi Speed Chase and blinkered Ireland's Eye to produce pace battle. Pletcher Spa skid has reached 0 for last 25, but Marsh Creek drops a tick and could sit comfortably behind speed. Sherifco can get similar voyage. Maker's War of Honor lone participant that moves up in class. Whole 6 pack requires some degree of coverage to start P5..

Most Likely: #2 Marsh Creek 2-1 WON ($5.00)
Best Value: #3 Ireland's Eye 8-1 5th
Next Best:#5 Sherifco 9-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Alexndeed 5-1 2nd

3rd: 10th P. G. Johnson, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Set of 7 with all but Dorochenko visitor looking possible. Flying Tipat, full sister to P.G. Johnson & BC Juvy Filly winner Tapitsfly enters as maiden after late-arriving debut 3rd 8/10. Lone runner to already make today's tri, sShould be tighter here 2nd out and gets pace to chase with 5 of the other gals stretching in distance..

Best Value: #4 Flying Tipat 8-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Partisan Politics 5-1 WON ($11.20)
Exotics Use: #2 Sunday Sonnet 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Ancient Goddess 4-1 3rd

4th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Have found these 9f affairs vexing all meet. Beyond Empire obvious on paper but hasn't seen circle since career debut with also rans starting to pile up..

Most Likely: #1 Beyond Empire 8-5 WON ($3.60)
Next Best: #3 Gridley Here 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Alcolite 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Roaring Conquest 9-5 3rd

5th: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Decent looking set of NY baby girls, with Dilger, Gullo, Lawrence and Maker 2nd timers sticking out.. Lawrence's Jessica's Ride, one of the 3 Freuds in here, get first turf, Lasix and blinkers and is a price..

Most Likely: #7 First Charmer 5-1 4th
Best Value: #5 Jessica's Ride 15-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Perfect Freud 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 In Spite of Mama 4-1 6th

6th: NY-MCLM/$50k, 2yo-F, 5.5f (G/S, P3, DD)

Based on pedigrees, sibling strength and worktab notes, this is a weak group. May have to make a stand with Mike Lerman, Al Gold and Chris Decarlo with Miss Potenza who has the race under belt..

Most Likely: #5 Miss Potenza 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #8 Club O R 5-1 7th
Next Best: #2 Laura's Patriot 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 She's Roman 3-1 4th

P5 Grid:

2: 2-3 (A), 5-6 (B), 1-4 (C)
3: 3-4 (A), 2 (B), 1-5-6 (C)
4: 1 (A), 3 (B), 2-4-5-6 (C)
5: 5-7 (A), 4-6 (B), - (C)
6: 5 (A), - (B), 1-2-8 (C)

P4 Grid:

3: 2-3-4 (A), 1 (B), 5-6 (C)
4: 1 (A), 3-4 (B), 2-5-6 (C)
5: 5-7 (A), 4-6 (B), 1-10 (C)
6: 5 (A), 8 (B), 1-2 (C)

7th: S/ALW, 3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Tried to claim Street Shark out of runner up effort early in meet and discussed with Wilkes who won him back. Turf sprinting may be exactly what he is meant to do. Merits upset look over even money fave..

Best Value: #2 Street Shark 10-1 WON ($20.00)
Next Best: #6 Console 1-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Isn'tlovejustgrand 3-1 4th
Super Add: #7 Fast Time 8-1 6th

8th: S/ALW, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)

Highly treacherous starter that has too much going on including clever Dennis Lalman with Dynaformer gelding Apex (o/o Seeking the Gold mare) who has only been on turf or routed once. We also get Kelley Rubley, (former Toner & Tagg assistant and part of Justin Nicholson's Ninety North/AJ Suited operation), back to try and pad her gaudy turf stats with St. Pierre. Lilli Kurtinecz has Manchurian High in the hands of Irad Ortiz getting class relief out of the United Nations and John's Call. Fun race..

Most Likely: #6 Manchurian High 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #2b St. Pierre 6-1 8th
Next Best: #7 Sayler's Creek 7-2 WON ($9.00)
Exotics Use: #5 Apex 12-1 5th

9th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 5.5f-T (DD)

Typically bettable turf sprint. Ziptronic obviously the horse to beat..

Most Likely: #10 Ziptronic 8-5 WON ($4.40)
Best Value: #9 Pirate's Pleasure 10-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Casa Creek 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Cap'n Raymond 20-1 6th
Super Add: #2 Spartiatis 8-1 2nd

10th: MCLM/$40k, 3+, 1m-IT

Notes don't show it on early PP's, but Bold Runner gets blinkers and Castellano sticks. Good enough for upset chance from capable Quartarolo at fat price..

Best Value: #10 Bold Runner 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #9 Retire Fifty Five 8-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Romans Paradise 2-1 WON ($7.80)
Super Add: #3 Carson's Ten 15-1 4th

P4 Grid:

7: 2-6 (A), 1 (B), 3-4-5-7 (C)
8: 2-6 (A), 7 (B), 4-5-9-10 (C)
9: 9-10 (A), 2-3-6 (B), - (C)
10: 9-10 (A), 5 (B), 1-3-6 (C)

$0.50 Pick 4 (2/7/4,10/5) Paid $312.00

Good luck!
Steve