Perryville -G3 Keeneland Friday...wow.

[blackthroatedwind]

# Horse Jockey Weight Claim Price Equip. Med.
1 Likely Leparoux J R 117 0 L
2 Vanilla Scoop Martinez W 117 0 Blk-On L
3 Midnight Lute Espinoza V 117 0 L
4 Court Folly Borel C H 123 0 L
5 Mach Ride Albarado R J 117 0 L
6 Reigning Court Lanerie C J 117 0 L
7 Fabled Castro E 117 0 L
8 Sailors Sunset Castanon J L 117 0 L
9 Lewis Michael Douglas R R 117 0 L
10 Latent Heat Prado E S 117 0 L
11 Praying for Cash Bejarano R 117 0 L
12 High Finance Gomez G K 117

Seems like a pretty good field. Who do you like?

[blackthroatedwind]

I don't know, any turf horses in there, because the race aint on the dirt.

If they would move it to Churchill, and also move it to the dirt, I would probably like Mach Ride off his superb King's Bishop effort. However, I am not betting Polyturf....at least not for more than $50 a race.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I don't know, any turf horses in there, because the race aint on the dirt.

If they would move it to Churchill, and also move it to the dirt, I would probably like Mach Ride off his superb King's Bishop effort. However, I am not betting Polyturf....at least not for more than $50 a race.

I'd bet Mach as well in a theoretical universe where the race was on dirt.
Its the only way to discuss these races.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I don't know, any turf horses in there, because the race aint on the dirt.

If they would move it to Churchill, and also move it to the dirt, I would probably like Mach Ride off his superb King's Bishop effort. However, I am not betting Polyturf....at least not for more than $50 a race.

Oh come on--Poly isnt that hard to handicap. It has its angles just everything else has. I really like High Finance.

[blackthroatedwind]

I guess the trainers like it, for now at least, as this is an unbelievable field especially for a Grade 3.

I can't believe the connections of Praying for Cash had a spot like this in mind when they made the unfair switch to Pletcher. A lot of fuss was made about the Lawyer Ron switch but this one was MUCH more disgraceful.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

Oh come on--Poly isnt that hard to handicap. It has its angles just everything else has. I really like High Finance.

I don't bet angles....I handicap, and without a " database " of Polyturf races I am not interested in betting my money. The game is hard enough.

[Pointg5]

This has been a nice race in the recent past, Commentator won it...Clock Stopper running against a huge speed bias that day to win...me telling anyone that would listen that he would win the BC Sprint, only to have him get hurt and Cajun Beat win, that was horrible, because these two were within a neck of each other in the Kentucky Cup Sprint...

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I don't bet angles....I handicap, and without a " database " of Polyturf races I am not interested in betting my money. The game is hard enough.

I was skeptical too but it really doesn't seem that bad. Just factor in that both dirt and turf horses like it and cap from there.

You guys told me before the weekend that good dirt horses would like it, and then pointed to the upcoming Happy Ticket race as one that could prove that.

So, ummm, remind me of all the good dirt horses who have shown they like it?
So far the poster child is High Cotton, who just ran off the board in the Pegasus, and that ain't saying much.

[King Glorious]

Because it's being run on the junk, I have no idea how it will play out. I think Latent Heat is the class of the field and should win but again, on the junk u never know. Circular Quay appeared to be a standout too and we saw Happy Ticket and Spun Sugar do nothing. I think that along with Latent Heat, Midnight Lute is above the rest of the field. I'd say that Reigning Court has to be respected off a win over the Turfway junk and Likely has a win and a second on the Turfway junk. Sailors Sunset has seemingly really improved and if u like Midnight Lute, u have to take a look at Sailors since he recently beat the comebacking Midnight Lute. I'll probably play Latent Heat and Midnight Lute in the top two spots and Sailors Sunset, Reigning Court, and Likely in the third with Lewis Michael in the fourth if I play a super.

Let's make it a box of:
Latent Heat-4
Midnight Lute-12
Sailors Sunset-10
Reigning Court-12
Likely-12

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I was skeptical too but it really doesn't seem that bad. Just factor in that both dirt and turf horses like it and cap from there.

U say that but I haven't seen any indication that dirt horses like it anywhere near as much as turf horses like it. Of course, more dirt horses will win on it because far more are entered but it seems that when there is a good turf horse entered, he has the advantage. All things being equal from a handicapping perspective, I'm taking the grass horses over the dirt ones on this junk.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Pointg5

This has been a nice race in the recent past, Commentator won it...Clock Stopper running against a huge speed bias that day to win...me telling anyone that would listen that he would win the BC Sprint, only to have him get hurt and Cajun Beat win, that was horrible, because these two were within a neck of each other in the Kentucky Cup Sprint...

Clockstopper got a brutal trip, even for him, in that Kentucky Cup Sprint and should have won fairly easily.

Of course nobody was beating Cajun Beat in that BC.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I guess the trainers like it, for now at least, as this is an unbelievable field especially for a Grade 3.

I can't believe the connections of Praying for Cash had a spot like this in mind when they made the unfair switch to Pletcher. A lot of fuss was made about the Lawyer Ron switch but this one was MUCH more disgraceful.

You know, I think it more the owners than the trainers who are calling the shots when it comes to PolyTrack. I am surprised as anyone with the quality of fields Keeneland is getting. I think after about 2 years or so, the novelty will go away and Poly will be where Poly belongs--at tracks like Turfway and Woodbine.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I don't bet angles....I handicap, and without a " database " of Polyturf races I am not interested in betting my money. The game is hard enough.

Thayt is true and I agree. There needs to be a database. But you still have to look at the races and find good value. Hence race 1 on Saturday. 1 horse won at 21-1. Cant believe he went off at those odds.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by oracle80

You guys told me before the weekend that good dirt horses would like it, and then pointed to the upcoming Happy Ticket race as one that could prove that.

So, ummm, remind me of all the good dirt horses who have shown they like it?

I think Happy Ticket liked it just fine. The Distaff division sucks compared to the FM Turf so she just plain wasn't as good as Asi Siempre. She would have gotten up for second if she didn't steady in the stretch.

I also told you I liked Great Hunter, Street Sense, and Passport more than CQ wherever the race was run. Great Hunter won and Street Sense lost by a nose to CQ.

Untouched Talent didn't seem to have too much problem with it.

Getting back on topic, I'll take Court Folly, High Finance, and Latent Heat here for the tri.

Originally Posted by oracle80

You guys told me before the weekend that good dirt horses would like it, and then pointed to the upcoming Happy Ticket race as one that could prove that.

So, ummm, remind me of all the good dirt horses who have shown they like it?
So far the poster child is High Cotton, who just ran off the board in the Pegasus, and that ain't saying much.

Happy Ticket proved those people were right. Happy Ticket had the race won if he didnt get completely cut off. The jock and trainer both said they were amazed with the way HT performed and that it was bad racing luck that got them beat not the surface. Go back and watch the race and u will see.

[The Bid]

Happy Ticket didnt mind the track, she did get checked up and steadied pretty good in the stretch. She will run on anything.

[Pointg5]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Clockstopper got a brutal trip, even for him, in that Kentucky Cup Sprint and should have won fairly easily.

Of course nobody was beating Cajun Beat in that BC.

That's true...

I would have been fine with it, because I liked Cajun Beat and had him, but I didn't have Bluesthestandard, so I got nothing...It's a stretch that CS would have been second, but it was very frustrating to see that happen...

[The Bid]

Lewis Michael