breeder juvy jinx?????

wac · #1 10-10-2006, 07:06 PM

Is there anyone out there that is worried about this and the effect it will have in spring? I saw CQ in person on Sat and i swear he is the most beautiful horse i have ever seen in person and i have seen his races on tv so i know that the horse has some acceleration and would be willing to beg TP not to run him on Nov 4 b/c i honestly think this horse may be special. I mean i know very little about racing but when i wathed the race at Sar and he dropped out by 15?lenths and still stuck to business doesn't that mean that the horse is a little fruther ahead mentally then most??? I dont know i just think the horse may turn out good but who knows least of me.

Danzig · #2 10-10-2006, 07:11 PM

oh no, not again. not the bc juvie curse again.

i think it's an odds thing. i wonder how many years they ran the champagne before that winner won the derby... it's just odds, that's all. odds of getting to the derby with a three year old, let alone winning it--what, 40,000-1? it'll happen, just like odds are eventually pletcher will win a classic, or that another filly will win the derby. but if it doesn't happen, it's not because of a 'jinx'. it's just racing.
it's not like the derby and preakness winner fails to win the t.c. because of a jinx. it's just the way it is.

#3 10-10-2006, 07:21 PM

The jinx will be alive again in '06:

I'm calling SCAT DADDY to win the BC Juvy and not hit the board in the Derby in '07.....

GenuineRisk · #4 10-10-2006, 07:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig188

oh no, not again. not the bc juvie curse again.

i think it's an odds thing. i wonder how many years they ran the champagne before that winner won the derby... it's just odds, that's all. odds of getting to the derby with a three year old, let alone winning it--what, 40,000-1? it'll happen, just like odds are eventually pletcher will win a classic, or that another filly will win the derby. but if it doesn't happen, it's not because of a 'jinx'. it's just racing.
it's not like the derby and preakness winner fails to win the t.c. because of a jinx. it's just the way it is.

Danzig, you just HAD to say that-- don't you know you can't dangle a useless trivia question in front of me like that! I have to google it; I can't help it! It's a sickness, I know! Aggggghhhhhh! Googlegooglegooglegoogle....

Anyway, here is the best I could find on Champagne/Derby winners:

Champagne began in 1867, Derby in 1875, so we start in 1874/1875 (Champagne/Derby).

First dual winner I could find was Ben Brush in 1896/1897, so that's 22 years.
Next was Count Fleet in 1942/1943, so that's 46 years.
Next was Riva Ridge in 1971/1972, 24 years.
Then in quick succession, Foolish Pleasure, Seattle Slew and Spectacular Bid (Secretariat came in first, but was disqualified)
After that, Sea Hero in 1992/1993

And that's it. Seven winners (eight with Big Red), FOUR (five) of which were in one decade.

If I'm wrong, please correct me. It's easy to find Derby winners, but I can't find a complete list of Champagne winners.

(Personally, I think the "curse" is that the odds of a horse being the best both in the fall of his 2-year-old year and the spring of his 3-year-old year are pretty small, since they change so much so fast. Not to mention there are a lot more foals born now than then, so there's also more competition.)

Danzig · #5 10-10-2006, 08:18 PM

well, at least i gave you something to keep you busy and out of trouble!

#6 10-10-2006, 08:59 PM

The only jinx I believe in is the tried and proven Seattleallstar jinx. No juvy jinx at all.

#7 10-10-2006, 11:12 PM

I dont believe in Jinx's. It is a long time between the BCJ and the KY Derby.

Merlinsky · #8 10-11-2006, 02:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GenuineRisk

It's easy to find Derby winners, but I can't find a complete list of Champagne winners.

http://www.pedigreequery.com/index.p...eld=view&id=83

This should do it for ya.

GenuineRisk · #9 10-11-2006, 09:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

http://www.pedigreequery.com/index.p...eld=view&id=83

This should do it for ya.

Thank you! So one can add Plaudit (1897/1898) an Azra (1891/1892) to the list of dual winners. Nine winners, three in once decade (the 1890's) and four in another (the 1970's).

#10 10-11-2006, 09:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig188

oh no, not again. not the bc juvie curse again.

i think it's an odds thing. i wonder how many years they ran the champagne before that winner won the derby... it's just odds, that's all. odds of getting to the derby with a three year old, let alone winning it--what, 40,000-1? it'll happen, just like odds are eventually pletcher will win a classic, or that another filly will win the derby. but if it doesn't happen, it's not because of a 'jinx'. it's just racing.
it's not like the derby and preakness winner fails to win the t.c. because of a jinx. it's just the way it is.

Zieg you remember my two page dissertation rant on this supposed jinx back at our old board, apparently I need to do it again.
The point that Genuine has made is one that I have made time and time again. When looking for horses who have won two specific races, in two racing years, at two different distances you will always have races like the Hopeful, Champagne, BC Juvy, etc which have long spells with no subsequent Derby winner.
Its pretty obvious that the fact that there is 6 months between the Juvy and Derby, and 3/16th's of a mile sifference between them is the most dominant reason that noone has won the two. A lot more is just bad luck.
The funniest part of this jinx is the supposed notion that a horse can compete in the juvy and lose and still win the Derby, or win the Juvy and win the Classic, or lose the Juvy and still win a classic, but can't win the Juvyand win the Derby. Its as if people actually believe that there is a voodoo jinx on the two events.
In reality the BC Juvy has the been the KEY and PRIMARY prep that has produced more classic winning races than any other prep during its existence. Many don't realize this, but its true.

1984- Spend A Buck ran third in the Juvenile and returned to win the Kentucky Derby. Tanks Prospect ran 2nd and returned to take the Preakness.

1985- Danzig Connection ran 12th and returned to win the Belmont.

1986-Alysheba ran 3rd and returned to win both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. Bet Twice ran 4th and returned to win the Belmont.

1988- Easy Goer ran 2nd and returned to win the Belmont.

1989- Go and Go ran 8th and returtned to win the Belmont.

1991- Pine Bluff ran 7th and returned to win the Preakness.

1992- Sea Hero ran 7th and returned to win the Kentucky Derby.

1993- Tabasco Cat ran 3rd and returned to win both the Preakness and Belmont.

1994- Timber Country won and returned to win the Preakness.

1995- Editors Note ran 3rd and returned to win the Belmont.

1998- Lemon Drop Kid ran 5th and returned to win the Belmont.

2000- Point Given ran 2nd and returned to win both the Preakness and Belmont.

2004- Afleet Alex ran 2nd and returned to win the Preakness and Belmont.

Ok so lets sum it up. Horses who competed in the Juvy have returned to win 3 Kentucky Derbies, 6 Preaknesses, and 9 Belmonts. Thats 3/22 in the Derby, 6/22 in the Preakness, and 9/22 in the Belmont.

Overall horses who competed in the BC Juvy have won 18/66 Tri crown races conducted since its inception or 27%. Imgaine that 27% of the classic races have been won by Juvy entrants.
If you look at just about any grade one two year old race run in this country, I doubt that strike rate is going to be as high.
The notion that you can run in it and win and still win other classics, run it and lose and still win the Derby, or run it and lose and win other classics, well thats some jinx.
When the right horse comes along who is bred and trained for both to win them, it will happen.

Pedigree Ann · #11 10-11-2006, 12:10 PM

From 1953 to 1972, the biggest money 2yo race was the Garden State S at Garden State Park (the original). For the first 18 years, only one winner of this championship event, Carry Back, came back to win the Kentucky Derby. Then in the last two years of its existence, it was won by Riva Ridge and Secretariat. I don't recall a 'Garden State' jinx mentioned at the time.

Cajungator26 · #12 10-11-2006, 12:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

From 1953 to 1972, the biggest money 2yo race was the Garden State S at Garden State Park (the original). For the first 18 years, only one winner of this championship event, Carry Back, came back to win the Kentucky Derby. Then in the last two years of its existence, it was won by Riva Ridge and Secretariat. I don't recall a 'Garden State' jinx mentioned at the time.

Similar to the RAN curse... there always has to be SOME kind of excuse. Sad though, isn't it?

Seattleallstar · #13 10-11-2006, 12:12 PM

I dont think horses know about history or read what is written up about them. In addition the BC is till too young to talk about curses and jinxes

Merlinsky · #14 10-12-2006, 06:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Similar to the RAN curse... there always has to be SOME kind of excuse. Sad though, isn't it?

I dunno the RAN curse was always kinda fun. And sure Barbaro broke the Derby RAN curse but technically it still applies to the TC

---ok ok don't throw tomatoes! In all seriousness I find it amusing and think it's interesting to think of Raise a Native's Y chomosome in the bm sireline. It's not like that curse is what really made Point Given lose. Just a fraz more serious than the 'if they poop on the track on the way to the gate they won't win the Derby' thing.