Keeneland Wednesday Oct. 8 Pick Five

[Kitan]

There has been some rain but I think it will dry out enough to keep them on the turf, especially the latter races.

Race 5:
#2 Exquisite Monarch: Only loss came when he was in over his head. Comes in from lesser circuit but there seems to be some speed in here and so he should get a great trip.
#8 Party Time: Maiden breaker for this tag, albeit against three foes, and has shown dirt form in California. Ignore his last as he was put in a very awkward spot after the start.
#3 Pick Three Punchie: KEE and previous OP works are unconvincing re the dirt. Has a shot if he can handle the surface.
Skeptical about #6, the G3 winning (and 2x SW) COLT (maybe first time gelding?) who's now in for a tag. Channing lands on the stablemate and Geroux is also elsewhere...

Race 6:
#2 Courtier: Great debut considering the circumstances for this well-bred colt. Closer to the outside rail than the inner on the first turn, started to rally and was again basically pushed into the clubhouse before steadying and losing all momentum. Showed his true gate speed last time but wasn't as effective on the dirt. Very dangerous should this remain on the grass, even without Lasix.
#3 Hillbilly Style: Took a shot on him on debut and his run wasn't all that bad. Ignore the dirt try and last time he rallied extremely well from a tough spot. May foal is still maturing and this is the distance he's bred for.
#6 High Noon Rider: Ran only evenly in his debut but they ran extremely quick. Dangerous connections at a price.
#9 Husky Clipper: Nothing extraordinary pedigree wise so take note of the sale price. Showed decent late interest debuting on the dirt and while there is minimal evidence to suggest she will handle the grass, the trainer has good numbers putting them on this surface. Might just be meant for the turf.
#'s 1, 8, 10, and 13 also have chances, although I don't think they're anything special, in a tough maiden encounter screaming value.

Race 7:
#2 Viva Majorca: Hasn't been disgraced against tougher and fav will be the one to beat.
#9 Catholic Cowboy: Bay of Biscay was no match for him last time and he is working well enough to suggest he can repeat.
#6 Announcement: Working much better for this than he was for the Super Derby so I'm inclined to believe something was amiss that day. Started his career with back to back wins that make him fit here, but he needs to prove he can do it around a solid two turns.

Race 8:
#4 Quality Rocks: Two for two at PID. Switches to Mott and tries the turf. She should win if two turns and the grass aren't an issue.
#7 West Coast Belle: Showed a quick kick to get up to win on debut. Distance should be no problem and her dam ran second in her only turf route.
#9 was lengths better than #1 last time but I'm suspicious about the quality of that race...#2 hasn't worked since Sept 22 (not normal for Chad)...#8 got a favourable set up and didn't run that fast anyways...

Race 9:
#10 Temper: Debut winner here on the poly but has been handling the dirt well in the mornings. They didn't come home in a good time but she is eligible to improve on that.
#3 Tap Twenty One: Has run best at the distance and has handled the dirt previously.
#4 Une Cherise: This is tougher than a five horse field at Delaware but it could get cozy for her up front.
#9 Playful Love: Added Lasix as a 3yo but I don't think that's the cause of her poor form. Given some time off with the trainer change and she's been working well. Expecting much better but may be too far back in what may turn out to be a prep.
Trying to beat the Wise/Successful Dan sib (#5)...

$0.60 Pick Five
Race 5: 2, 8
Race 6: 2, 3, 6, 9
Race 7: 2, 6, 9
Race 8: 4, 7
Race 9: 3, 4, 10
$86.40

$0.60 Late Pick Four
Race 6: 2, 3, 6, 9 (add 13 in case of SCR)
Race 7: 2, 6, 9
Race 8: 4, 7
Race 9: 3, 4, 9, 10
$57.60

Good luck!

[JDank34]

Originally Posted by Kitan

There has been some rain but I think it will dry out enough to keep them on the turf, especially the latter races.

Race 5:
#2 Exquisite Monarch: Only loss came when he was in over his head. Comes in from lesser circuit but there seems to be some speed in here and so he should get a great trip.
#8 Party Time: Maiden breaker for this tag, albeit against three foes, and has shown dirt form in California. Ignore his last as he was put in a very awkward spot after the start.
#3 Pick Three Punchie: KEE and previous OP works are unconvincing re the dirt. Has a shot if he can handle the surface.
Skeptical about #6, the G3 winning (and 2x SW) COLT (maybe first time gelding?) who's now in for a tag. Channing lands on the stablemate and Geroux is also elsewhere...

Race 6:
#2 Courtier: Great debut considering the circumstances for this well-bred colt. Closer to the outside rail than the inner on the first turn, started to rally and was again basically pushed into the clubhouse before steadying and losing all momentum. Showed his true gate speed last time but wasn't as effective on the dirt. Very dangerous should this remain on the grass, even without Lasix.
#3 Hillbilly Style: Took a shot on him on debut and his run wasn't all that bad. Ignore the dirt try and last time he rallied extremely well from a tough spot. May foal is still maturing and this is the distance he's bred for.
#6 High Noon Rider: Ran only evenly in his debut but they ran extremely quick. Dangerous connections at a price.
#9 Husky Clipper: Nothing extraordinary pedigree wise so take note of the sale price. Showed decent late interest debuting on the dirt and while there is minimal evidence to suggest she will handle the grass, the trainer has good numbers putting them on this surface. Might just be meant for the turf.
#'s 1, 8, 10, and 13 also have chances, although I don't think they're anything special, in a tough maiden encounter screaming value.

Race 7:
#2 Viva Majorca: Hasn't been disgraced against tougher and fav will be the one to beat.
#9 Catholic Cowboy: Bay of Biscay was no match for him last time and he is working well enough to suggest he can repeat.
#6 Announcement: Working much better for this than he was for the Super Derby so I'm inclined to believe something was amiss that day. Started his career with back to back wins that make him fit here, but he needs to prove he can do it around a solid two turns.

Race 8:
#4 Quality Rocks: Two for two at PID. Switches to Mott and tries the turf. She should win if two turns and the grass aren't an issue.
#7 West Coast Belle: Showed a quick kick to get up to win on debut. Distance should be no problem and her dam ran second in her only turf route.
#9 was lengths better than #1 last time but I'm suspicious about the quality of that race...#2 hasn't worked since Sept 22 (not normal for Chad)...#8 got a favourable set up and didn't run that fast anyways...

Race 9:
#10 Temper: Debut winner here on the poly but has been handling the dirt well in the mornings. They didn't come home in a good time but she is eligible to improve on that.
#3 Tap Twenty One: Has run best at the distance and has handled the dirt previously.
#4 Une Cherise: This is tougher than a five horse field at Delaware but it could get cozy for her up front.
#9 Playful Love: Added Lasix as a 3yo but I don't think that's the cause of her poor form. Given some time off with the trainer change and she's been working well. Expecting much better but may be too far back in what may turn out to be a prep.
Trying to beat the Wise/Successful Dan sib (#5)...

$0.60 Pick Five
Race 5: 2, 8
Race 6: 2, 3, 6, 9
Race 7: 2, 6, 9
Race 8: 4, 7
Race 9: 3, 4, 10
$86.40

$0.60 Late Pick Four
Race 6: 2, 3, 6, 9 (add 13 in case of SCR)
Race 7: 2, 6, 9
Race 8: 4, 7
Race 9: 3, 4, 9, 10
$57.60

Good luck!

Nice write up but $.60c?

[Alabama Stakes]

he's canadian. they bet like that up in the dominions of canada. something about the metric system. Like when they get gas, it's like "30 litres on pump tew eh!"

[ADJMK]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

he's canadian. they bet like that up in the dominions of canada. something about the metric system. Like when they get gas, it's like "30 litres on pump tew eh!"

Actually has to do with betting into the US pools and the currency exchange. Can only bet 20c min supers too.

[ADJMK]

In R8 - late change #9 RDB who had a horrible trip in last adds lasix