11/1 (SA): 31st Breeders' Cup ~ Saturday

[Kasept]

Efficient, profitable Friday to start the Cup with serious run at a big P5 hit falling short when anchor leg complexion changed on Midnight Hawk's poor break. $25.00 score in Twilight Derby with Mystic Lake hero Long On Value giving the afternoon ballast including $129 straight P3 with Brendan Walsh's impressive Cary Street in the Marathon and Walther Solis' Cal stake juvy My Fiona. Fantastic performances in the Cup races from Hootenanny, Lady Eli, Goldencents and Untapable who were all dominant. Prices couldn't impact any slots other than deep exotics Friday, but expect that will change Saturday. Hope everyone did well. Watch early in the day for decisions on early turf given the rain that fell overnight. Might prove hard to hold back the speed on the main track early on too given the precipitation and tendency to tighten the surface.


SANTA ANITA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: 3rd Juvenile Turf Sprint, 2yo, 6.5f-OFF THE TURF (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Ocho Ocho Ocho WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #9 Tizcano 3rd
Next Best: #2 Metaboss 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Gambler's Roll 5th


2nd: 2nd Golden State Juvenile-Cal, 2yo, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Acceptance 2-1 WON ($3.40)
Next Best: #2 Wake Up Nick 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Mischief Clem 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #4 Smack Talk 6-1 5th


3rd: 46th Sen. Ken Maddy (G3), F&M-3+, 6.5f-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Warm Breeze 4th
Next Best: #12 Amaranth WON ($7.80)
Exotics Use: #4 Velvet Mesquite 2nd


4th: 31st BC Juvenile Fillies (G1), 2yo-F, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Though the Juvy boys are getting more attention, this is a better group than thought at first blush. Alcibiades runner up Top Decile attractive key while trouble Chandelier trip Hollendorfer filly Majestic Presence can ignite tote. Angela Renee the filly to beat. Puca and Christina's Journey look spectacular in the flesh. Danette, like teammate Texas Red, should be in your tris and supers..

Most Likely: #11 Top Decile 10-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Majestic Presence 20-1 9th
Next Best: #2 Angela Renee 3-1 10th
Exotics Use: #8 Puca 6-1 6th
Super Add: #5 Christina's Journey 6-1 11th


5th: 16th BC F&M Turf (G1), F&M-3+, 10f-T (P3, DD)

Very competitive group and defending champ Dank not as vulnerable as first expected after middling season. Dayatthespa says goodbye to current connections after this and may never have been in better form than she is here. Distance questionable but slower pace at trip may do the trick. Shug at 15-1 (Abaco)? Yes please.. Fiesolana and Just the Judge demand use. Tough, tough race..

Most Likely: #3 Dank 5-2 4th
Next Best: #4 Dayatthespa 8-1 WON ($13.00)
Best Value: #1 Abaco 15-1 7th
Exotics Use: #6 Fiesolana 8-1 8th
Super Add: #2 Just the Judge 6-1 3rd


<$75 P5 Plays:

1: 3 (A), 9 (B), 2-7 (C)
2: 1 (A), - (B), 2-6 (C)
3: 7-12 (A), 4 (B), 9-10-11 (C)
4: 7-11 (A), 2-5-8 (B), 1-4-10-12 (C)
5: 3 (A), 1-2-4-6 (B), 5-7-8-9-10-11 (C)

Full (A/B/C): $72.50
Simple (A/B): $75 (2x1x3x5x5 = 150 x .50 = $75)


6th: 8th BC F&M Sprint (G1), F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Stonetastic has touted herself all week here and at 7f, may get easy opening splits that will make her tough to reel in later. Judy the Beauty pointed for this spot all year and there's no Groupie Doll to deal with. Hadn't expected to use Little Alexis but will be a big number and is another that has looked great in the mornings..

Most Likely: #3 Stonetastic 8-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Judy the Beauty 5-2 ($8.20)
Best Value: #2 Little Alexis 15-1 9th
Exotics Use: #5 Artemis Agrotera 3-1 7th
Super Add: #10 Southern Honey 20-1 6th


7th: 7th BC Turf Sprint (G1), 3+, 6.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Hill course Cup events has been provenance of Left Coast runners/riders and this set looks like it shouldn't be exception. Like Judy the Beauty with Groupie Doll out of the way, Reneesgotzip tries to crown herself queen of the hill in Mizdirection's absence. Post no bargain and there's plenty of speed involved. Eddie D exacta pair of Home Run Kitten/Ambitious Brew make great sense, but Silentio has the profile of success for this turning back from the mile trip. Castellano has ridden the hill well and don't forget that he and Tightend Touchdown were 2nd here a year ago. Bobby's Kitten either takes to this swimmingly or is a sucker horse in the mold of Capo Bastone (9-1) last year and Bridgetown (6-1) the year before..

Most Likely: #2 Silentio 8-1 14th
Best Value: #10 Home Run Kitten 12-1 11th
Next Best: #4 Tightend Touchdown 8-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Reneesgotzip 5-1 9th
Super Add: #5 Ambitious Brew 12-1 7th


<$75 P4 Plays:

4: 7-11 (A), 2 (B), 1-3-4-5-8 (C)
5: 3 (A), 4 (B), 1-2-5-6 (C)
6: 3-7 (A), 2-5 (B), 1-6-10 (C)
7: 2-4 (A), 10 (B), 1-5-6-8-11-12-14 (C)

Full (A/B/C): $75
Simple (A/B): $72 or $36 (3x2x4x3 = 72)


8th: 31st BC Juvenile (G1), 2yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)

With American Pharaoh out of this, Carpe Diem, Daredevil and Upstart are your principals. Texas Red is a big boy that is maturing rapidly and with any more improvement, can win at a big number. He also will get a target for his rally. Souper Colossal may be a cut below the major players but couldn't look sharper coming in for savvy Plesa and Mrs. Weber, but pace runners may get cooked..

Most Likely: #9 Carpe Diem 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Texas Red 20-1 WON ($29.80)
Next Best: #13 Upstart 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #12 Daredevil 7-2 11th
Super Add: #8 Souper Colossal 12-1 7th


9th: 31st BC Turf (G1), 3+, 12f-T (P4, P3, DD)

As with the approach to the Mile, will appreciate prowess of the Euros while being sure to respect the 2 best North American players in Hardest Core and Main Sequence. Pace feels slightly murky so if you like a pricey forward type player (Twilight Eclipse maybe?), go ahead and use. Brown Panther will likely be on my multi-race plays though it seems 12f is short for him..

Most Likely: #1 Telescope 4-1 4th
Best Value: #9 Hardest Core 10-1 8th
Next Best: #7 Flintshire 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #12 Main Sequence 6-1 WON ($14.40)
Super Add: #11 Chiquita 8-1 5th


10th: 31st BC Sprint (G1), 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

As if there wasn't enough steam and respect for Rich Tapestry coming into this, performance of Goldencents Friday only further gilds the SA Sprint Championship winner. In other words, no Hong Kong Phooey today. After him, do whatever you want because anybody can fill out the super..

Most Likely: #6 Rich Tapestry 5-1 14th
Best Value: #10 Big Macher 12-1 9th
Next Best: #4 Secret Circle 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Mico Margarita 15-1 12th
Super Add: #8 Palace 6-1 6th


11th: 31st BC Mile (G1), 3+, 1m-T (DD)

Excellent, accomplished group and virtually no combination in your wagers will be hopeless. Will cede imposing status of the Euros and feather in 2 well-priced North Americans with Tom's Tribute and Grand Arch..

Most Likely: #5 Toronado 5-2 8th
Best Value: #6 Tom's Tribute 15-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Mustajeeb 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Veda 12-1 12th
Super Add: #1 Grand Arch 20-1 11th


12th: 31st BC Classic (G1), 3+, 10f (Super Hi-5)

I always stick to the Top 4 I offer in the Xpressbet BC Wagering Guide and that group looks fine 2 weeks after my initial thoughts were penned. California Chrome turns out to be the surprise 'now' horse of this Classic, clearly on edge physically and posted nicely for outside stalking voyage behind the pace-setting speed Bayern & Moreno. Cigar Street can draft in from inside as well and could offset Mott disappointment in Friday's feature when Close Hatches retired at the half mile pole. Bayern is of course a danger up front and could end an arduous week for Baffert who lost Midnight Lucky and American Pharaoh from the Cup at 11th hours. A truly terrific assembly..

Most Likely: #9 Toast of New York 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Shared Belief 9-5 4th
Best Value: #8 Zivo 15-1 8th
Exotics Use: #11 Tonalist 5-1 5th
Super Add: #13 California Chrome 4-1 3rd
Hi-5 Play: #2 Cigar Street 12-1 7th


<$100 P4 Plays:

9: 1 (A), 7-9 (B), 2-4-11-12 (C)
10: 6 (A), 10 (B), 4-5-7-8-9-12-13-14 (C)
11: 5 (A), 3-4-6 (B), 1-2-7-8-9-10-11-12-13-14 (C)
12: 6-9 (A), 2-8-11-13 (B), 1-3-4-5-7-10-12-14 (C)

Full (A/B/C): $57.50
Simple (A/B): 3x2x4x6 = 144 x .50 = $72


<$100 HRTV Distaff-Classic Double:

DIS: 10-11
CLS: 2-6-7-8-9-11-13-14

2x8 = 16 x $5 = $80 10-7 Distaff-Classic DBL Pays $24.70 x 5 = $123.50

DIS: 1-9
CLS: 2-6-7-8-9-11-13-14

2x8 = $16


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

Races 1 & 3 are OFF THE TURF...

CALCULATOR a SCR from the Juvenile...

[Kasept]

SA SCR/CHG'S

Check link regularly leading up to post time for additional OFF/TURF scratches from 1st & 3rd..

[ADJMK]

Nice tri in the 8th Steve

[hi_im_god]

I know this qualifies as a redboard but I would not have looked twice at Texas Red otherwise, so thank you.

Despite being a Marty Robbins fan.

[ADJMK]

Know u were all over Toast of NY and I think u got jobbed.
Never understood how you can wipe someone out at the start and it doesn't matter but if the same interference happened in the stretch it is a DQ

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by ADJMK

Nice tri in the 8th Steve

THX! Came at a great juncture between the P4's and provided a big boost. American Pharaoh may have been better off SCR'ing, because I don't think he was beating Texas Red.

Originally Posted by ADJMK

Know u were all over Toast of NY and I think u got jobbed. Never understood how you can wipe someone out at the start and it doesn't matter but if the same interference happened in the stretch it is a DQ

Appreciate it. Was initially miffed and certainly do better if Toast gets put up, but I increasingly understand the non-call this morning. Very tough situation.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

I know this qualifies as a redboard but I would not have looked twice at Texas Red otherwise, so thank you.

Despite being a Marty Robbins fan.

Always love hearing this kind of feedback. That's what the ATR conversations and written opinions are meant to do. Glad he ran to speculation.