Belmont Wednesday May 13 Analysis

[Kitan]

Race 2:
#1 Ferzetti: Didn't handle the inner and slipped a few strides out of the gate last out. Perfect rail trip with the light weight.
#3 Black Coronas: Beatable at a short price.
#6 Letsgotovegas: Improved with the blinkers on but must show more stamina.
#8 Ballerina's Image: Doesn't find a tough spot to return at big odds.
#7 is very dangerous if she can get over her setbacks, but question if she can return to that ability.

Race 3:
#6 Real Estate Rich: Rail wasn't the place to be on Apr. 10. Look for a bounceback.
#8 Divine Child: Hard to excuse last but Servis hits at a big clip with plungers.
#1 Playing a Joke: Form not bad if you ignore the turfs. Showed last out one-turn isn't a problem.
#7 Saint Finian: Never ITM in 6 fast track tries but some of those have been better than they seem on paper against tougher.

Race 4:
#5 Enduring Touch: Terranova deadly when slashing the tag.
#4 Kathy's Reward: Hard to be fond of the plunge off the last, but if the shades were the reason for the poor performance then she should romp.
#2 Adrift: Dangerous if can repeat her lone start to date.
#1 Noon Sermon: Not a bad performance last out considering the run time against older runners.

Race 5:
#6 R Y Squadron: Chad excels bringing last out maiden winners off these types of layoffs. Better bet he has her ready.
#9 Loon River: Lone win came on this course in a route with the same J/T combo.
#4 Cosmic Serenity: Debut winner was in over her head next out. Used the return as a prep and the complexion of this should suit much more than her last.
#10 Brockolini: Dam placed her only turf try and he'll improve second up and second on the surface.
This is the easiest bunch #1 has faced since the debut win. Just think she'll need this one.

Race 6:
#1 Gasparilla Inn: Eligible to improve on a solid second off a near year layoff. Extra furlong will definitely suit.
#6 Now Power: Dam won debut (at 2, 4.5f) and both sibs also won at first asking (both at 3, although in the first week of January and at 6f). Finds a tough spot to debut without Lasix but this one could blow up some tickets.
#4 I'll Take Charge: Regally bred and Mott has some great stats with 3yo FTS (19.4% in dirt sprints, 3 for 8 with 7 ITM dirt sprints @ BEL), however his record isn't so gaudy when he debuts 3yos without Lasix. Has her ready off the quick works in Florida. Key underneath, but not so heavily on top.
#2 Foreststone: Wilkes brings his second-timers to BEL ready to run well.
#8 Touch the Moon: Have to wonder why Pletcher didn't run her at SAR, especially after a bullet work. Pletcher 10: 0-1-0 since the beginning of 2013 with 3yo filly FTS @ BEL, and 9: 1-1-1 with 3yo filly FTS in dirt sprints @ BEL since 2010. On the fence.

Race 7:
#3 Underthemoonlight: Her last two have arguably been the best of her career. Third start of the form cycle in a race where the lower prices are vulnerable.
#4 Liberty Island: Has shown speed in the mornings which makes me think she'll blast early cutting back in a race devoid of a clear frontrunner, however Pletcher has only put two works into her which makes me wonder if she's ready.
#1 Golden Gem: Will appreciate the return to a sprint. Just not sure if she beat anything on debut.
#6 On a Snowy Evening: Another that won't mind the cutback. Can add value underneath.

Race 8:
#1 English Minister: Definitely needed that return run. Never run a poor race routing on turf outside of Stakes company.
#5 Request: Chad 6 for 9 when removing the shades off a layoff in turf routes, however none of those winners had as an extended of a break as this one has and only one of those winners came in a race against winners.
#12 Thirteenth Avenue: Both sibs won routing. Interesting runner who has shown speed previously which will benefit in here.
#9 Adirondack Dancer: Has run well when resuming off similar layoffs the past two years. However, the concern is that he's hung in both of them.
#7 Seagate: Should handle the surface and KMc is on fire to start the meet, but he's only 1 for 18 with 4yos and up making their turf debut (non-FTS).

Race 9:
#4 Pioneer of Wifi: Has some turf pedigree on the bottom and 'Nile has done well as a turf sire to date. Lasix will help. Feel like Carmouche owes me a good turf ride.
#1 Fortunate Sky: Bred for the grass, second time Lasix, and got a nice prep for this after being way short in barn debut. Downgraded as Jara has been quite poor on the turf the last two years.
#2 My Friend Keith: Has a lot going for him on paper, but question his ability if Mott would put him in for a tag.
#10 Foxhall Drive: Wonder if they'll put him on the front end since there is a lack of pace in here and he ran so well dueling on debut. Dangerous if that's the case given the way NY turf routes play out, but do see it hard for him to win as a closer.
#8 has a chance to hit the board as an outsider.

$0.60 Pick Five
Race 1: 1, 2, 4, 6, 7
Race 2: 1, 3
Race 3: 1, 6, 8
Race 4: 4, 5
Race 5: 6
$36.00

$0.60 Early Pick Four
Race 2: 1, 3
Race 3: 1, 6, 7, 8
Race 4: 1, 2, 4, 5
Race 5: 4, 6, 9, 10
$76.80

$2 Pick Six
4, 5/6/1/3, 4/1, 5/1, 2, 4, 10
$64

$0.60 Late Pick Four
Race 6: 1, 4, 6
Race 7: 1, 3, 4
Race 8: 1, 5, 12
Race 9: 1, 2, 4, 10
$64.80

Good luck!