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#1
05-15-2015, 03:36 PM
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5/16: Hi Ho Pimlico! (141st Preakness Day)
Idyllic afternoon at Old Hilltop Friday as fast-paced afternoon flew by. Several performances stood out, none more so than that of Ben's Cat who won the the Jim McKay for a 4th time. Javier Castellano brilliantly stole the Black-Eyed Susan on Keen Pauline, an appropriate thievery in the event considering one had been stolen from Dale Romans 9 years ago. In 2006, Romans saw Smart N Party ridiculously taken down in the Susan as stewards penalized Norberto Arroyo in favor of Ramon Dominguez. Thoroughly dominant efforts were turned in by Commissioner in the Special, Stopchargingmaria in DuPont and Miss Temple City in the Hilltop.
Cashed plenty of modest tickets Friday, but Keen Pauline ($32.80), Irish Jasper ($12.00) and Seventh Son ($27.80) proved elusive and interrupted multis. Hope everyone did OK. Main track was very fair Friday with the inside seemingly earning a slight plus. With three more turf sprints scheduled today (1st, 6th, 11th), note that yesterday's winners came from right up on the lead no matter how fast they went early. Preakness weather starts well before a possibility of thunderstorms (40%) as the afternoon progresses. PIMLICO RACE COURSE POST-SCRATCHES 1st: MSW, 2yo, 5f-T (P3, DD) Juveniles to start day including potential 2nd start of Bodemeister half Finnegan.. Most Likely: #3 La Nina 3-1 2nd Best Value: #1a (POE) Shoot Craps SCR Next Best: #8 Finnegan 6-5 WON ($3.00) Exotics Use: #5 Sunshine Life 5-1 3rd 2nd: S/HCP, 3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD) Most Likely: #1e Pops Racing entry 5-1 3rd/6th Next Best: #9 Take Down Two 6-1 8th Best Value: #4 Glich 12-1 7th Exotics Use: #5 Fish Whistler 8-1 WON ($9.60) 3rd: MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD) Insane group where it looks like 8 of the 12 can win.. Best Value: #4 Svindahl 12-1 DNF-Clipped heels, fell Next Best: #10 Chiropractor 7-2 4th Exotics Use: #13 Steel Sky 5-1 5th Super Add: #3 My Team 10-1 WON ($27.20) 4th: James W. Murphy, 3yo, 1m-T (P3, DD) Most Likely: #2 Force the Pass 5-2 2nd Best Value: #7 Syntax 12-1 4th Next Best: #5 First Spark 5-1 6th Exotics Use: #1 All I Karabout 5-1 3rd 5th: Maryland Sprint H. (G3), 3+, 6f (P3, DD) Most Likely: #5 Sandbar 9-2 WON ($10.80) Best Value: #1 Jack's in the Deck 12-1 7th Next Best: #2 Coup de Grace 3-1 5th Exotics Use: #4 Happy My Way 5-2 3rd P4 Grid: 2: 1-9 (A), 4-5 (B), - (C) 3: 4-10 (A), 3-11-13 (B), 2-8-14 (C) 4: 2 (A), 7 (B), 1-3-8 (C) 5: 1-5 (A), 2-4 (B), 3-6-7-8 (C) Simple (A+B): 4x5x2x4 = 160 x .50 = $80 Full (A/B/C): $78 6th: ALW, F&M-3+, 5f-T (P3, DD) Hooligan is a bad favorite. She needs to have improved to compete since last being seen as a 2yo. Possible but certain to be overbet in wacky field that has plenty of pace.. Best Value: #13 Smart N Smokin 8-1 5th Next Best: #9 Adding Alpha 10-1 10th Exotics Use: #1 Southern Peach 15-1 7th Super Add: #2 Hooligan 4-1 WON ($6.00) 7th: Sir Barton, 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD) Most Likely: #6 Donworth 2-1 2nd Next Best: #1 Fame and Power 5-2 WON ($6.00) Best Value: #9 Conquest Bigluck E 12-1 7th Exotics Use: #5 Bold Conquest 9-2 3rd 8th: OC/C, 3+, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD) Most Likely: #10 Loves Last Chance 3-1 12th Best Value: #7 Arrive 9-2 11th Next Best: #12 Other Cheek 7-2 10th Exotics Use: #11 Causeworthy 10-1 7th 9th: Gallorette H. (G3), F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, DD) As good an edition of this as I can recall with fancy Euros bursting on the scene and layoff runners complicating decision-making.. Best Value: #1 Bocaiuva 8-1 4th Next Best: #10 Mango Diva 6-1 7th Exotics Use: #7 Hard Not to Like SCR Super Add: #3 Emotional Kitten 10-1 2nd 10th: Chick Lang, 3yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD) Most Likely: #7 Gimme Da Lute 3-1 3rd Best Value: #9 Holy Boss 6-1 WON ($11.40) Next Best: #5 Victory Is Sweet 9-2 2nd Exotics Use: #4 Senor Grits 8-1 6th 11th: Very One, F&M-3+, 5f-T (P3, DD) Most Likely: #2 Ageless 5-2 WON ($4.60) Best Value: #9 Aquinnah 12-1 3rd-DH Next Best: #4 Joya Real 8-1 2nd Exotics Use: #3 Paddle Board 12-1 10th 12th: Dixie (G2), 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD) Like the Gallorette, a deep and compelling edition.. Best Value: #10 Manchurian High 15-1 8th Next Best: #12 Long On Value 8-1 4th Exotics Use: #15 Chamois 8-1 13th Super Add: #4 Aripeka 8-1 6th 13th: Preakness (G1), 3yo, 9.5f (DD) Second leg of the Crown seems to boil down to whether the rail draw compromises heavy (3-5 overnight) favorite American Pharoah. As has been extensively discussed, if Espinoza goes forward from the bell, the Derby winner will faces waves of pressure throughout the race. Dortmund, Mr. Z, Bodhisattva, Divining Rod and Firing Line will all want to be well-placed into the turn. I remain unconvinced that Firing Line has any advantage from the widest berth and all but Danzig Moon and Tale of Verve hustling inside him down the stretch the first time. If the wagering holds and Dortmund (8-1 overnight) and Danzig Moon (15-1) can impact the result, betting the feature can be an approachable proposition even if American Pharoah wins. The key is keeping one of the two favorites out of the exotics. Bottom line is that American Pharoah comes in feeling like the kind of Derby winner that is even better in this event than he was 2 weeks ago.. Most Likely: #1 American Pharoah 4-5 WON ($3.80) Best Value: #4 Danzig Moon 15-1 6th Next Best: #2 Dortmund 7-2 4th Exotics Use: #8 Firing Line 4-1 7th P5 Grid: 9: 1 (A), 7/SCR-10 (B), 3-6-8-9 (C) 10: 7-9 (A), 4-5 (B), 1 (C) 11: 2 (A), 4-9 (B), 3-6-7 (C) 12: 10-12 (A), 4-15 (B), 1-9-11 (C) 13: 1 (A), - (B), 2-4-7-8 (C) Simple (A+B): 3x4x3x4x1 = 144 x .50 = $72 Full (A/B/C): $68 P4 Grid: 10: 7-9 (A), 4-5 (B), 1 (C) 11: 2-9 (A), 4 (B), 3-6-7 (C) 12: 10-12 (A), 4-15 (B), 1-9-11 (C) 13: 1 (A), 2-4 (B), 7-8 (C) Simple (A+B): 4x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72 Full (A/B/C): $72 14th: ALW, 3+, 8.5f Most Likely: #1 Jigsaw 7-2 6th Best Value: #9 Segovia 5-1 Next Best: #2 Old Upstart 3-1 WON ($6.00) Exotics Use: #4 Jack O Liam 5-2 3rd Good luck! Steve
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 05-16-2015 at 10:33 PM. 
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#2
05-16-2015, 07:07 AM
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Preakness Advance Wagering Odds
1 American Pharoah 3-5 2 Dortmund 8-1 3 Mr. Z 13-1 4 Danzig Moon 15-1 5 Tale of Verve 25-1 6 Bodhisattva 20-1 7 Divining Rod 18-1 8 Firing Line 5-2
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#3
05-16-2015, 08:35 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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