6/6: Belmont Park (Belmont Stakes Day; $110k C/O)

[Kasept]

BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: 5th Easy Goer, 3yo, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Stanford 2nd
Next Best: #3 Japan WON ($6.10)
Exotics Use: #4 Nonna's Boy 3rd


2nd: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Wisecracker 2-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Gold Shield 4-1 7th
Exotics Use: #4 Tiz Shea D 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Gridley Here 15-1 4th


3rd: 31st Woody Stephens (G2), 3yo, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Competitive Edge 4-5 6th
Next Best: #4 Two Weeks Off 3-1 5th
Best Value: #6 Classy Class 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 March 10-1 WON ($22.80)


4th: 32nd Jaipur Invintational (G3), 4+, 6f-T (P3, DD)

Will cover Power Alert and Mosler in this terrific edition..

Best Value: #11 Spring to the Sky 12-1 9th
Next Best: #6 Something Extra 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Ageless 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #10 Channel Marker 20-1 WON ($23.60)


5th: 47th Ogden Phipps (G1), F&M-4+, 8.5f (P3)

Have made case all week that Untapable is vulnerable having not yet improved an iota from her 3yo Championship form and challenged here in what looks like a chess match between her, Princess Violet and Wedding Toast. McLaughlin barn sending out one dynamo after another and will be interesting to see when Wedding Toast moves on her two main rivals. Princess Violet did win the Empire Distaff at this trip in the fall, but she's not facing Flipcup and Carameaway. Rosalind and Rosario will get to save ground and watch the action unfold, while Alvarado (House Rules) and Maragh (Shayjolie) have options as to how close they sit. Just 6 but hardly clear cut..

Most Likely: #2 Wedding Toast 4-1 WON ($6.30)
Next Best: #4 Untapable 2-5 2nd
Best Value: #5 Princess Violet 8-1 5th


P5 Grid:

1: 1 (A), 3-4 (B), - (C)
2: 2 (A), - (B), 1-4-5-7 (C)
3: 3 (A), 4 (B), 1-2-6 (C)
4: 6-11 (A), 1-4-10-13 (B), 5-8 (C)
5: 2-4 (A), 5 (B), 1-3-6 (C)


P4 Grid:

2: 2 (A), 1-4-5 (B), 7 (C)
3: 3 (A), 4 (B), 1-2-6 (C)
4: 6-11 (A), 1-4-10-13 (B), 5-8 (C)
5: 2-4 (A), 5 (B), 1-3-6 (C)


6th: 127th Brooklyn H. (G2), 4+, 12f (P6, P3, DD)

$110k P6 C/O ($1MM Guaranteed) starts here..

Most Likely: #5 Effinex 7-2 DNF-Bolted/Eased
Next Best: #1e Repole entry 5-1 WON ($7.90)/10th
Best Value: #7 Ever Rider 15-1 9th
Exotics Use: #10 Sky Kingdom 6-1 3rd


7th: 85th Acorn (G1), 3yo-F, 1m (G/S, P3, DD)

Not to take away from accomplishments of 8-for-8 Promise Me Silver, but not sure anyone has noticed that she's isn't the only undefeated filly in race with Bar of Gold and Miss Ella equally pristine. Nine of these 12 are shortening up from longer routes or 2-turn miles, which curiously leaves the aforementioned troika making slight stretchouts from 7f in their respective previous starts. Thoroughly spectacular running of this always salubrious standard..

Best Value: #5 Bar of Gold 20-1 6th
Next Best: #11 Miss Ella 6-1 7th
Exotics Use: #6 Curalina 10-1 WON ($16.40)
Super Add: #9 Promise Me Silver 5-1 10th


8th: 22nd Just a Game (G1), F&M-4+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Steady, surprising rain this morning throws screwball into this event as turf -- which was just 'good' as recently as Thursday -- may be plenty yielding by this afternoon. Castellano sticks with 'one to beat' Ball Dancing but no shortage of accomplished dowagers to utilize against/with them..

Most Likely: #4 Coffee Clique 7-2 6th
Next Best: #8 Ball Dancing 3-1 8th
Best Value: #2 Sandiva 12-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 J Wonder 10-1 7th


9th: 122nd Metropolitan H. (G1), 3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Tremendous assembly for one of the sport's most important races and while top half of field (4-5-6-7-9) offer the likely winner, other quintet are no doorknobs. '14 Jim Dandy exacta of Wicked Strong-Tonalist feel like the heaviest of the heavyweights and both come in off series of eye-popping drills. Fact that Shug and Baffert redirected Honor Code and Bayern here encourages for their chances from opposite running styles. The mystery horse is Tamarkuz (10-1) who is guaranteed to offer value and has taken to his U.S. environs to the extent that he has successfully sparred with Frosted preparing for today. Pace will be spirited if not downright hot and whoever is good enough on the day prevails..

Most Likely: #6 Wicked Strong 6-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Tonalist 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 Tamarkuz 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Bayern 7-2 10th
Super Add: #9 Honor Code 6-1 WON ($16.20)


10th: 114th Manhattan (G1), 4+, 10f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Not usually overly concerned with weights, but Twilight Eclipse (+7), Finnegans Wake and Jack Milton notably challenged by the scale here. Pletcher has recently converted Feathered into an adept lawn gnome and will try same with General a Rod who removes hood but may still find himself isolated on the lead at a giant number. War Dancer, Big Blue Kitten and Slumber all have looks and Euro invader Magic Artist is an unknown..

Most Likely: #5 Big Blue Kitten 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 War Dancer 5-1 6th
Best Value: #10 General a Rod 20-1 11th
Exotics Use: #2 Twilight Eclipse 7-2 7th


11th: 147th Belmont Stakes (G1), 3yo, 12f (P3, DD)

Back again for another pass at the most elusive of achievements.. I may be a bad judge of Crown chance Belmonts as I always am eager to see the candidate convert the opportunity and don't covet this particular 'bet-against'. Beyond the obvious elements of rock solid credentials of American Pharoah and an encouraging pace scenario for the assignment, I'm more confident than usual about a Classic sweep by him based on the admiration he's engendered from veteran horsemen. When David Vance, Lynn Whiting and Carl Nafzger, independent observers of horseflesh with a lifetime in the game, gush about a horse and his chances at this increasing implausible task, it's high praise.

American Pharoah and Victor Espinoza will have to get themselves into the winner's circle of course, but there's nothing pending that makes him particularly less likely to succeed today than in Arkansas, Kentucky or Maryland. Frosted is the most well-rounded of his foes, while Materiality makes up in raw talent what he lacks in seasoning. Keen Ice, Madefromlucky, Tale of Verve, Mubtaahij and Frammento all have admirable enough qualities that make them deserving parts of the field and are no less appropriate participants than Sarava, Da' Tara, Commendable, Ruler on Ice, et al..

Experience says those hoping to witness a touchstone historical event will go home disappointed; The very essence of involvement in this sport says you're going to see something special that you'll never forget..

Most Likely: #5 American Pharoah 3-5 WON ($3.50)
Best Value: #2 Tale of Verve 15-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Keen Ice 20-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Frosted 5-1 2nd


P6 Grid:

6: 5 (A), 1 (B), 7-9-10 (C)
7: 5 (A), 6-11 (B), 7-9-10-12 (C)
8: 4-8 (A), 2-7 (B), 6 (C)
9: 4-6 (A), - (B), 5-7-9 (C)
10: 4-5 (A), - (B), 2-3-10 (C)
11: 5 (A), - (B), 2-6-7-8 (C)


P4 Grid:

8: 4-8 (A), 2-7 (B), 6 (C)
9: 4-6 (A), 1-5-7-9 (B), 2-8-10 (C)
10: 5 (A), 4 (B), 2-3-7-10 (C)
11: 5 (A), 6-8 (B), 2-7 (C)


12th: OC/N2X, 3+, 9f-IT (DD)

Umgiyo SCR'ing.. Looks like nearly anyone can win this..

Best Value: #6 Flashlight 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Taghleeb 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Mills 15-1 8th
Super Add: #5 Depeche Chat 12-1 WON ($16.80)


13th: OC/N2X, 3+, 7f

Most Likely: #10 Social Inclusion 3-1 4th
Best Value: #2 Warrior's Crown 8-1 5th
Next Best: #11 Matterhorn 4-1 10th
Exotics Use: #1 Green Grotto 8-1 WON ($19.80)


P4 Grid:

10: 4-5 (A), 2-10 (B), 3-7 (C)
11: 5 (A), 6-8 (B), 2-7 (C)
12: 6-7 (A), 3-5 (B), 8-10 (C)
13: 10 (A), 2-11 (B), 1-5-8 (C)


Good luck!
Steve

[tanner12oz]

Raining in ny?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by tanner12oz

Raining in ny?

Steadily. Abating by noon.

[casp0555]

"Experience says those hoping to witness a touchstone historical event will go home disappointed; The very essence of involvement in this sport says you're going to see something special that you'll never forget"

Well put Steve...good luck today and thanks for all the work you do and the talent and information that you introduce on your show everyday, especially for the past two months.

[Kasept]

BEL SCR/CHG'S

[Bogey]

Steve, great analysis on Untapable - I got cute and cost myself a bundle. Good luck the rest of the day

[moses]

Steve -- hit the 5-6-7 trifecta in part thanks to your picks. Thanks for always putting these together. Glad I could see a triple crown winner and cash a trifecta in the same race. Not a bad day at the races today.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by moses

Steve -- hit the 5-6-7 trifecta in part thanks to your picks. Thanks for always putting these together. Glad I could see a triple crown winner and cash a trifecta in the same race. Not a bad day at the races today.

Moish.. Good job! Happy to assist. Was a wonderful, magical, overwhelming experience there Saturday.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Bogey

Steve, great analysis on Untapable - I got cute and cost myself a bundle. Good luck the rest of the day

Ugh.. Thx but sorry you missed that score Gus. She just hasn't gone forward from last year. Was a great day though no matter what anyone did at the windows!

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by casp0555

"Experience says those hoping to witness a touchstone historical event will go home disappointed; The very essence of involvement in this sport says you're going to see something special that you'll never forget"

Well put Steve...good luck today and thanks for all the work you do and the talent and information that you introduce on your show everyday, especially for the past two months.

Billy..

Thank you so much. Might not have swept the series as brilliantly as American Pharoah, but proud and pleased with what ATR offered since arriving in Louisville April 18. In an unusual twist, will go full circle this week by returning to The Ville for Foster Night, the engraved Derby trophy ceremony and the Crown winner parading at the Downs.

Saturday was exactly what you anticipated it would be so often over these 3+ decades. As satisfying and joyous an experience as I've ever had. Hope everyone was as overwhelmed by it as me.

[Bogey]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Ugh.. Thx but sorry you missed that score Gus. She just hasn't gone forward from last year. Was a great day though no matter what anyone did at the windows!

Awesome day regardless for sure. After watching his last workout at Churchill with my kids and then seeing him get it done in that fashion is something that we will remember. Great day for racing.