6/13 Belmont Pick 5

[ateamstupid]

BEL1 (1:20pm) [S]MCL40k 1-1/8M TURF 3+ F&M
There are two standout horses on paper in this field: #2 Midsummer Delight, who passed eight horses to be a good 3rd in a solid field in her debut last September after stumbling badly at the start. She’s been off for 268 days, but goes out for the sharp Tom Morley barn and caught a soft field for her return race. #3 Weekend Hottie has the two fastest races in the field on paper two and three-back and was especially good 4/17, kicking on to be 3rd despite a poor break and a wide trip. She was a bit of a disappointment last out, but still rallied into a moderate pace to be a narrow 3rd and I think the stretchout back to two turns benefits her. My price idea in here is #1 Light Years Away, whose two turf races are light years better than her dirt starts and who’s bred to be OK going long on grass. She’s dropping out of statebred MSW company and was beaten less than six lengths after checking at the start last out in her first race since December. She gets a positive rider switch, adds blinkers and draws a great post for this two-turn route. Trainer Pat Kelly also has a positive ROI with horses making their 2nd start back from a similar layoff and she’s the clear value in the race if near her 12-1 morning line price.

A: 1,2,3

BEL2 (1:51pm) CLM25kNW2L 1-1/16M DIRT 3+
#5 Againsome is the horse to beat on the drop for Linda Rice, but his last two races have been abysmal, so it’s worth using a few others. I’m against #3 Summit Moon, who broke his maiden pretty much by default last out as there really was nothing in that field. This time, his inexperienced rider is going to have to work much harder and he’s going to be an underlay. #4 Sunnysider is interesting at a price. He’s not a winning type (1-for-21), but his last two dirt races were OK and he’s dropping back in for a tag after chasing the sharp Macagone going nine panels on turf last out. #2 Kowboy Boots has to be used -- he’s nothing special and is 1-for-14, but he’s got several races fast enough to win this.

A: 2,4,5
B: none
C: 1,3

BEL3 (2:22pm) AOC62.5kNW2$X 1-1/8M DIRT 3+
#2 Hereditary stamped himself as a potential stakes horse with a big N1X win last out at Keeneland, coming home in under :36 for his last 3/8 despite being 3-wide around both turns. His dam was Pleasant Home, winner of the Breeders’ Cup Distaff at this track and distance, so today’s test should be right up his alley and he draws into a field without much early foot. #5 Touchofstarquality is my other horse getting back to a fast track. It’s been a career of starts and stops for this talented son of Mineshaft, but his two NY races on dry dirt have been terrific. The shape of the race could play against him, but he’s the only one who can match the upside of the favorite. I don’t want #4 Cool Samurai, who has one big race that came going shorter on a wet track and whose trainer is 5-for-61 lifetime at Belmont. The 9-year-old hard-knocker, #3 Spa City Fever isn’t impossible and I’ll back up with him.

A: 2
B: 5
C: 3

BEL4 (2:53pm) CLM25k 1-1/16M TURF 3+
Wide-open race where I want a lot of coverage. #9 Riviere Du Loup is marginally the horse to beat going 2nd off a very long layoff for Christophe Clement, but he didn’t do any particular running in his stateside debut, getting a perfect rail-skimming ride and still ending up no threat to the winner. My other A’s will be #3 Lay It Down, #6 Shetan and #8 Liberal Spin. I’ll also use #2 Best Play at a big price, as his last few two races have been good efforts against better competition on dirt and he has back races on grass that make him competitive. #4 Heiko is a big player dropping down as the potential speed and even #5 Rope a Dope ran well two-back before running off on his rider last out.

A: 3,4,6,8,9
B: 2,5

BEL5 (3:24pm) PokerG3 1M TURF 4+
One of the best Grade 3 turf races you’ll ever see. In my eyes, the horse to beat is #2 Long On Value. He got really good over the winter, culminating in a breathtaking score in the Canadian Turf, which earned him a big Beyer and Thoro-Graph figure. He was 3rd in the Maker’s 46 Mile, but that was over soft turf and his next race was a sneaky good, wide effort in the Dixie. #4 Heart to Heart is coming off a big race in the Red Bank, where he ran hard every step chasing a sizzling pace before just getting run down late by the perfect-trip Winning Cause. That was a big step forward for him, but I’ve learned that when Brian Lynch horses get good, they stay that way. He also should get a good trip stalking the speed of King Kreesa, who appears to have just lost a step at six. Chilean star #6 Il Campione debuts for Chad Brown to much hype and would be no surprise, though I’m guessing Chad thought he would catch a softer G3 for his stateside debut. #7 Ironicus had his coming-out party in the Dixie and is dangerous right back for Shug. #10 Vyjack is a big overlay at anything close to his 15-1 M/L. This is a big barn switch to Bill Mott, who wastes no time getting the half-brother to Tepin on the grass and he shows up with some sharp local turf works.

A: 2,4,6,7,10

[ateamstupid]

Guess I wasn't so slick as I only got 5-1 on Light Years Away but a solid start.

[dellinger63]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Guess I wasn't so slick as I only got 5-1 on Light Years Away but a solid start.

Great start and probably got rid of 60% of tickets

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by dellinger63

Great start and probably got rid of 60% of tickets

Summit Moon f*cked me. That was a monster effort by Touchofstarquality in the 3rd though. Here's hoping he can finally stay healthy.