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Old 09-19-2015, 09:00 AM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 43,479
Default 9/19: Belmont Park ($214k Triple C/O); Parx (Stakes P4)

BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD)

$214k Triple P6 C/O starts here..

Sequence book-ended by divisions of challenging state bred juvy turf routes that balance first timers with experienced runners that may be OK..

Best Value: #6 Ben's Miracle 8-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Ro Bear 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Two Down One to Go 3-1 11th
Super Add: #10 Fakeittilumakeit 20-1 10th


6th: CLM, 3+, 6.5f (G/S, P3, DD)

Brutally tough, well-matched group. Pace looks moderate but could heat up if Arroyo (Sir Bond) and Trujillo (Bond Vigilante) choose to hustle early against whichever entrymate Gargan deigns..

Best Value: #5 Mordi's Miracle 6-1 7th
Next Best: #8 Sir Bond 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Souper Knight 5-1 8th
Super Add: #7 Bond Vigilante 8-1 5th


7th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Decent 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #9 Liberal Spin 12-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Run for Logistics 5-1 WON ($8.00)
Exotics Use: #8 Speeding Comet 10-1 2nd


8th: 28th Noble Damsel (G3), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Mabre Rose 5-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Coffee Clique 2-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Crowley's Law 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 Lady Lara 4-1 2nd


9th: OC/N2X, 3+, 10f-IT (DD)

Most Likely: #5 Planetaire 5-1 11th
Best Value: #7 Belisarius 12-1 7th
Next Best: #1 Jay Gatsby 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Umgiyo 3-1 9th


10th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 1m-T

Best Value: #9 Stubbs 8-1 7th
Next Best: #8 Converge 3-1 WON ($7.90)
Exotics Use: #10 Yummy Bear 6-1 6th
Super Add: #11 Sax Change 4-1 4th


P6 Grid:

5: 2-6 (A), 4 (B), 9-10-11 (C)
6: 5-8 (A), 7-9 (B), 1-2 (C)
7: 3 (A), 9 (B), 5 (C)
8: 2 (A), 1 (B), 7-8 (C)
9: 5 (A), - (B), 1-3-7 (C)
10: 8-9 (A), - (B), 10-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x2x2x1x2 = 96 x $2 = $192


P4 Grid:

7: 3-5-9 (A), 6-8-10 (B), 1-4-11 (C)
8: 1-2 (A), 7-8 (B), - (C)
9: 5 (A), 7 (B), 1-3-11 (C)
10: 8-9 (A), 10-11 (B), 5-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x4x2x4 = 192 x .50 = $96



PHILADELPHIA PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


7th: 1st Bayern, 3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Encryption 10-1 WON ($9.80)
Next Best: #1 Street Babe 3-1 7th
Exotics Use: #2 Freestyler 2-1 4th
Super Add: #8 Classic Giacnroll 6-1 2nd


8th: 25th Gallant Bob (G3), 3yo, 6f (P3)

Most Likely: #3 Limousine Liberal 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #6 Hebbronville 5-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Trouble Kid 5-1 WON ($28.40)
Exotics Use: #5 Catalina Red 6-1 7th


9th: 46th Cotillion (G1), 3yo-F, 8.5f (P3)

Most Likely: #8 I'm a Chatterbox 3-1 WON ($6.20)
Best Value: #7 Peace and War 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Eskenformoney 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Stroke Play 20-1 6th


10th: 36th Pennsylvania Derby (G2), 3yo, 9f (DD)

Like unlucky Chatterbox in the Cotillion, this sure feels like a race that Frosted has a right to win. Have to be concerned about Gimme Da Lute having to SCR as it leaves Mr. Z on an easy lead where he's tough and dangerous. If you watch Island Town in the Smarty Jones. you'll note his ability to maintain contact and finish. Iron Fist is versatile and forward going. Tommy Macho raced on worst part of the Mountain and has upside at a price with style that works on this quirky oval..

Most Likely: #3 Frosted 5-2 WON ($4.00)
Best Value: #2 Island Town 10-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Iron Fist 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Tommy Macho 10-1 3rd


P4 Grid:

7: 1-7 (A), 2-6-8 (B), 3-4-5 (C)
8: 3-6 (A), 4-5-7 (B), 1-2-8 (C)
9: 8 (A), 7-10 (B), 1-2-4-9 (C)
10: 3 (A), 2 (B), 4-5-7-9-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x5x3x2 = 150 x .50 = $75

$0.50 Pick-4 (7/4/2,8/3,6) Paid $374.00


Good luck!
Steve
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Last edited by Kasept : 09-19-2015 at 11:17 PM.
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  #2  
Old 09-19-2015, 11:58 AM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 43,479
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BEL SCR/CHG'S

PRX SCR/CHG'S
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans

Last edited by Kasept : 09-19-2015 at 02:52 PM.
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Old 09-19-2015, 06:16 PM
ADJMK ADJMK is offline
Randwyck
 
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 1,302
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Great job on the Parx P4. What a nice payout. I needed something to make up for the Belmont disaster all week.
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Old 09-19-2015, 10:02 PM
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Bogey Bogey is offline
Del Mar
 
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Location: South Florida
Posts: 5,498
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Steve, nice hit on the PARX PK4
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Old 09-20-2015, 08:22 AM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
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Location: Greenwich, NY
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Thanks guys.. Did pay well and helped defray the impossible Belmont results. Was amazed Trouble Kid brought $28. Triple in the Derby was a big bonus. Hope everyone did well. Fun afternoon down there. Not as big a crowd as for Cal Chrome last year but well attended and great atmosphere.
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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  #6  
Old 09-20-2015, 08:23 AM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 43,479
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$609k 4-DAY BELMONT P6 CARRYOVER!
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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