Belmont Steeplechase 9/22

[Flatterer]

Novice runners are featured in The William Entenmann Memorial, an allowance condition race for horses that have not won over jumps before March 1, 2015 or have never won 3 races, other than 3YO.

In the 4 turn Entenmann, the final two fences in the stretch will not be jumped, and the field will have a five-furlong run from the last of nine fences. Sweeping turns do not give early speed a big advantage. Front runners faded in the stretch in 2015.

Here is the field for the 2 1/4-mile William Entenmann Memorial Novice Hurdle Stakes. The National Steeplechase Association rating for each starter is in parentheses after the horse’s name. A higher number would receive more weight in a handicap race. For reference, the highest rated horse is Rawnaq (162), next is Scorpiancer (138), entered in Race #2 The Lonesome Glory.

1-Miguel Grau. (120) Up the track 5th beaten 11 lengths on 8/3 at Saratoga where he did no running. Won by 10 lengths against a weak field at Suffolk on 7/9 carrying 155 high weight. Average turf speed. He runs one good race a year and with leading rider Jack Doyle taking off, he’ll be an also ran.

2-Hardrock Eleven. (121) Won Saratoga allowance hurdle on 9/1 by 3 lengths with the fastest time of the meet for the distance aided by rock hard turf. Ran a credible 2nd to #8 Detroit Blues at Saratoga on 8/17 losing by 2 lengths. Has lost to #4 Special Skills and #6 Ice It over jumps in the spring. Good turf speed and added distance helps but 156 co-high weight hurts. Use in bottom of tri and super.

3-Dye Fore. (116) Up the track 7th in Saratoga handicap 8/3. Did not finish in 2 tries over jumps in the spring. Picks up English jockey Alice Mills replacing Connor Hankin, who started USMC Officer Candidate school on 9/10, for the rest of the season for Fisher. From Equibase, Alice Mills is off the board in 5 races from 2014. Average turf speed. Strictly a pace setter for Fisher’s other runners #5 Ice It and #7 Special Skills. Throw out.

4-Share Out. (113) Finished third in Saratoga allowance hurdle on 8/24 where he saved all the ground passing tired horses late. Leading rider Jack Doyle returns choosing this runner over #1 Miguel Grau. Will have to overcome a step up in class against multiple winners over jumps. Possible bottom in tris and supers.

5-Ice It. (118) Ran 2nd in Marcellus Frost Novice Stakes at Nashville 5/14, beating #2 Hardrock Eleven and #3 Dye Fore. 3YO hurdle champion beating #6 Aquies and Saratoga hurdle winner Kensington Court. Marcellus Frost winner Tempt Me Alex did not run back. Marcellus Frost 3rd place runner African Oil refused to start as 3/2 fav at Monmouth 6/17. Top trainer Fisher and 6th leading rider McDermott team up for a serious win threat. However, trainer Fisher says he may need a race and they are pointing for the Foxbrook at Far Hills 10/15. Use in exotics.

6-Aquies. (110) Three recent flat tries give him a speed edge but he still has just average turf speed. Leading owner Irv Naylor bought this one back after being claimed 7/4. Last jump race finished a good 2nd at Willowdale 5/15 while getting an 8 pound weight concession from the rest of the field. Gets in light again with 144. Trainer Kathy Neilson is better with timber runners than hurdle runners. Gets 5th place regular rider Gallaghan back in the saddle. He has the most starts over hurdles (8) of any 4YO in training. Age old handicapping conundrum…Experience vs. Talent….Could land underneath in exotics at a huge price.

7-Special Skills. (125) Two honest handicap efforts at Saratoga, winning by 2on 8/31 and finishing 3rd on 8/3. Top Trainer Fisher and 4th leading rider Paddy Young will try to negotiate the 156 co-high weight to victory. If this was a starter handicap, he would be carrying 158 and #2 Hardrock Eleven would have 152. Excellent turf speed gives a tactical advantage for the final 5 furlong flat run. Possible winner and a must use in exotics.

8-Detroit Blues (GB). (120) Impressive Saratoga hurdle winner in first US try on 8/17, defeating #2 Hardrock Eleven. Handicapper changed his rating from 112 (which was his rating in England) to 120 after his win. According to trainer Ricky Hendricks, he wasn’t even tired after the race and jockey Sean McDermott said he never asked him to run, leaving plenty in the tank. McDermott takes off because he is under contract to Trainer Jack Fisher. 3rd leading rider Geraghty gets mount. Pointing for this race since Saratoga. Good turf speed. Top choice.

Projected order of finish:

8-7-2-5-4-6-1-3

For betting purposes:
A) 8-7
B) 2-5
C) 4-6

[Flatterer]

The Lonesome Glory Grade 1 $150K handicap hurdle race at 2 ½ miles is featured in race 2.

In the 4 turn Lonesome Glory, the final two fences in the stretch will not be jumped, and the field will have a five-furlong run from the last of 10 fences. Same configuration was used last year for this race.

For a grade 1 race, this is an extremely weak field. Trainer Ricky Hendricks has 2 import runners that have a serious chance to win however he will scratch one of his runners, reducing the field size to 7. I believe the handicapper ratings are too high for #7 Charminister and #8 Schoodic, compromising their chances to win.

Here is the Lonesome Glory field with handicap weights.

1-Swansea Mile (Ire). (152) Won at Kempton in April after two wins in July 2015 for former stable. Failed to meet reserve and was bid in at approximately $25,300 at 2016 Goffs UK National Hunt sale in August. Trainer Ricky Hendricks has another good import runner. 134 hurdle rating in England.

2-Scorpiancer (Ire). (154) Gets high weight since he lost to top rated Rawnaq by 15 lengths 2 times in the spring. Stakes placed twice at Saratoga but could not catch front runners in NY Turf Writers on 8/25. Good turf speed. Added distance will benefit his late running chances but has not won since Novice Stakes at Far Hills October 2015. Use in Exotics.

3-Awesome Pearl. (142) Did not finish in only 2016 try at Nashville 5/14. Missed 2015 season due to injury. Not sure why he is entered in this race. Should be carrying 134 based on handicap rating (120) but the NSA doesn’t go that low without apprentice rider allowance.

4-Jamarjo (Ire). (144) Better than it looks 3rd at Monmouth losing a head bob on 6/17 with a fast finish. Andi’Amu came back to run 2nd in NY Turf Writers. Gets a nice weight break off spring campaign. Trainer Leslie Young and rider Paddy Young know this runner like the back of their hands and he always gets a check. Best flat turf speed, late running style, light weight, high winning percentage makes him a formidable opponent. Possible winner and must use in exotics.

5-Hisaabaat (Ire). (152) Another Trainer Hendricks runner making his US debut. Private purchase from Dermot Weld’s stable. Finished third in allowance hurdle in August 2015 after unplaced finish in rich Guinness Galway Handicap Hurdle. Back on 10/24/14, lost to Clondaw Warrior by 1 ½ lengths on the flat in the $120K Tote November Handicap. Clondaw Warrior recently finished 2nd in the American St. Ledger at Arlington 8/13. Excellent turf speed. No 2016 hurdle rating in England or Ireland however NSA rates him at 135.

6-Rudyard K. (144) All out to run 3rd in Saratoga handicap 8/31 and did not finish after losing rider in Saratoga stake on 8/4. Top rider Doyle gets the mount with light weight. Good turf speed. Has a chance to run underneath in exotics if he stays on his feet.

7-Charminster (Ire). (150) 10YO has danced all the big dances and is showing his age. Prefers softer turf than what he’ll get for this race. Leading owner Naylor gives the mount to undistinguished rider Carol Sloan. Average turf speed but added distance helps his chances. Handicapper assigned wrong weight, should be carrying 142. If the turf has a little give, may hit the bottom of the super at a big price.

8-Schoodic. (150) Off the board in both stake tries at Saratoga. Prefers softer turf than what he’ll get today. Another handicapper weight error, should be carrying 144. Leading trainer Fisher gives newcomer Alice Mills the mount. Average turf speed. May hit the bottom of tri and super.

Projected order of finish

4-(1&5)-2-6-8-7-3

For betting purposes
A) 4-(1&5)
B) 2-6
C) 8-7

Best of luck to everyone!!! If there are any significant updates, I'll post the information.

[Flatterer]

Race 2 Lonesome Glory update - Trainer Ricky Hendricks will start both horses and not scratch.

#5 Hisaabaat is the "A" selection. He had surgery to remove a knee chip after his last race in 2015 and has fully recovered. His flat race speed in the final 5 furlongs will put him in front.

Revised for betting purposes:
A) 5-4
B) 2-1
C) 6-8-7

[Flatterer]

Jockey Jack Doyle who fell over the last on Rudyard K in race 2 was taken to the hospital and is being evaluated for a pelvis/leg/ankle injury. Rudyard K appears to be OK.

[Flatterer]

Jockey Jack Doyle had a fractured pelvis and underwent surgery to place pins in his pelvis. His leg and ankle were not injured.

In race 1, Hardrock Eleven took advantage of an extremely slow pace early and went to the front putting the rest of the field away. His erratic jumping progressively got worse and was lucky not to bother other horses.

Race 2 went to Scorpiancer at 3/5 with a surprisingly strong closing kick.

Hope Jack Doyle's recovery goes well.

Good luck if you are going to Shawan Downs outside of Baltimore tomorrow. Top rated Rawnaq will run on the flat in the 8th race as a tune up for Far Hills on 10/15.