Beating a BC favorite

zippyneedsawin · #1 10-26-2006, 06:10 PM

Beating a favorite (big fav or not) is what it's about on BC day. There are at least two I will definately be playing against: Henny Hughes & Fleet Indian

I'd like to know who you will try to beat on BC day?

brianwspencer · #2 10-26-2006, 06:27 PM

those are the two i'm looking at trying to beat as well, especially henny hughes.

Thunder Gulch · #3 10-26-2006, 07:54 PM

Wait A While...if she's favored. I suspect Ouija Board may get the nod.

Haven't decided on Henny. That is always an impossible one to handicap, so I'll probably look for something more than his odds will offer, but I haven't figured out who to go with.

#4 10-26-2006, 08:15 PM

I am playing against Pletcher's Juvy favorites(Scat Daddy and Circular Cuay) and his Distaff favorite Fleet Indian.

SCUDSBROTHER · #5 10-26-2006, 08:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin

Beating a favorite (big fav or not) is what it's about on BC day. There are at least two I will definately be playing against: Henny Hughes & Fleet Indian

I'd like to know who you will try to beat on BC day?

I wouldn't go into the day with this type of thinking.I think it leads to excessive fishing.You can always take 2 price horses and the favorite(and hope the favorite gets beat by your other 2.)I think ,instead,you need to be asking yourself which horses (regardless of price) can you possibly single.So,I am much more in favor of "being for" horses than "being against" horses.There is a difference.

Bernardini · #6 10-26-2006, 09:00 PM

as much as love dini, i think he along with HH, Fleet Indian, and Wait a While will go down !!

munster705 · #7 10-27-2006, 12:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin

Beating a favorite (big fav or not) is what it's about on BC day. There are at least two I will definately be playing against: Henny Hughes & Fleet Indian

I'd like to know who you will try to beat on BC day?

I really cannot rationalize betting any favorites at all on Breeder's Cup Day. It is the Mecca for finding prices and hitting huge exotics. I mean seriously, these horses are the best there are and what are they 2-3 lengths apart? It is mainly about getting a good ride from the jock anyways with fields this deep.

#8 10-27-2006, 12:27 PM

I never understood the philosophy of "beating the favorite." What does this mean??? If you think a horse can win then who cares if it is a favorite or not. I never handicap a race trying to find a way to "beat the favorite." I handicap a race and I choose the horses I think can win regardless of odds.

paisjpq · #9 10-27-2006, 12:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bold Reasoning

I am playing against Pletcher's Juvy favorites(Scat Daddy and Circular Cuay) .

I am with you on those two...I think they will be heavily favored and 2 YO form is not something that I would hang my hat on since they are always changing...

Slewbopper · #10 10-27-2006, 12:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eurobounce

I never understood the philosophy of "beating the favorite." What does this mean??? If you think a horse can win then who cares if it is a favorite or not. I never handicap a race trying to find a way to "beat the favorite." I handicap a race and I choose the horses I think can win regardless of odds.

I try to find the horse who I think is the best horse in the race first and hope it isn't the favorite.. If I think the odds are fair or it is an overlayed fave (8/5 or higher), I will bet the horse to win. If I think the odds are too low on the horse I like, then I start looking at exotics.

slotdirt · #11 10-27-2006, 12:58 PM

That filly and mare turf is a great race. Same with the distaff, as far as betting goes. There are at least four or five horses in each race who are easily capable of taking down the favorites. Same with the turf or even the mile.

Man, I love Breeders Cup day.

zippyneedsawin · #12 10-27-2006, 01:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eurobounce

I never understood the philosophy of "beating the favorite." What does this mean??? If you think a horse can win then who cares if it is a favorite or not. I never handicap a race trying to find a way to "beat the favorite." I handicap a race and I choose the horses I think can win regardless of odds.

To me, it means identifying a likely post time favorite that I think is likely to lose.. the bigger the favorite the better. In general, I usually apply this philosophy when making Pick 3 and Pick 4 bets. Obviously, when you can eliminate for beat a heavy favorite, that creates a lot of 'dead money' in the pool, thus boosting the payout.

#13 10-27-2006, 01:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin

To me, it means identifying a likely post time favorite that I think is likely to lose.. the bigger the favorite the better. In general, I usually apply this philosophy when making Pick 3 and Pick 4 bets. Obviously, when you can eliminate for beat a heavy favorite, that creates a lot of 'dead money' in the pool, thus boosting the payout.

I still dont understand. If you have 10 horses in a race, you are trying to beat 9 others with the horse than you think is going to win. Who cares what the odds of the other horses are as long as your horse wins.

zippyneedsawin · #14 10-27-2006, 01:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eurobounce

I still dont understand. If you have 10 horses in a race, you are trying to beat 9 others with the horse than you think is going to win. Who cares what the odds of the other horses are as long as your horse wins.

I agree, if you are making a straight win bet on a horse you like, who cares if the horse is the favorite or not. I'm talking about trying to find good payouts on pick 3s and 4s.

tycharles01 · #15 10-27-2006, 01:23 PM

BC Races are just like playoffs in all other sports-- Its all about matchups!!!!

Distaff- Fave will be beat, There is too much speed in this race and too many closers. The Better Question would be (Who is gonna win??) Balletto,Spun Sugar,Pine Island,*Lemons Forever who already won a race like this on this track although it was against 3yr olds

Spint- Will tell you when I see the Posts If henny draws inside 1-3 and gets a speed horse next to him MIGHT be a few problems

Juvy Fillies- Best bet is to just play Tri and Super Boxes and hope you get lucky lol

Turf- Hurricane Run is the fave however if its firm and the bunny does his job it should be a Cacique EC showdown into the stretch

Ouija Board should be a single

philcski · #16 10-27-2006, 04:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eurobounce

I still dont understand. If you have 10 horses in a race, you are trying to beat 9 others with the horse than you think is going to win. Who cares what the odds of the other horses are as long as your horse wins.

I guess you could use some education on parimutuel wagering- it's EXTREMELY important in the payoffs... i'd suggest reading Steve Crist's new book Exotic Wagering, it'll give you some insight on how significant beating the post time favorite is in each flavor of wager.

Cajungator26 · #17 10-27-2006, 04:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

I guess you could use some education on parimutuel wagering- it's EXTREMELY important in the payoffs... i'd suggest reading Steve Crist's new book Exotic Wagering, it'll give you some insight on how significant beating the post time favorite is in each flavor of wager.

It wouldn't hurt me to read that either... I need all of the help I can get!

philcski · #18 10-27-2006, 04:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

It wouldn't hurt me to read that either... I need all of the help I can get!

It's a great book, I highly recommend it!!

and of course, Crist is probably the best writer out there so it's a fun and entertaining read as well as tutorial.

bogeydaman · #19 10-27-2006, 05:07 PM

HTML Code:

Originally Posted by eurobounce
I never understood the philosophy of "beating the favorite." What does this mean??? If you think a horse can win then who cares if it is a favorite or not. I never handicap a race trying to find a way to "beat the favorite." I handicap a race and I choose the horses I think can win regardless of odds.

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Originally Posted by eurobounce
I still dont understand. If you have 10 horses in a race, you are trying to beat 9 others with the horse than you think is going to win. Who cares what the odds of the other horses are as long as your horse wins.

One of the toughest thing to understand for a gambler is the concept of risk vs reward. Keep in mind your quote says "think a horse is going to win".

If you were to run the race you were betting 100 times, how many times do you think your horse would win. This should define what odds you are willing to take on that wager. If you think the horse would win 40 out of 100 you should not bet this horse at even money (if you think it is 80 out of 100 you should bet it at even money). If in that same race you think a different horse will win the race 10 out of 100 times and his off odds are 20-1 you should make that bet. In the long run you will make a profit if you can accurately predict the risk vs reward for each of the horses in a race (that is obviously not so easy).

The Pk3 / Pk4 is a whole other ball game as stated prior.

Food for thought.

Travis Stone · #20 10-27-2006, 05:38 PM

Favorites have actually done well in the Cup. In the 30% range.

Right now, in my initial stages, I'm going to try and beat these favorites:

Fleet Indian
Ouija Board (she still might take my action)
Gorella (who might not be the favorite...)