Wrong Payoff at Gulfstream?

[Rupert Pupkin]

I have no idea how they could make a mistake on a place price, but I did the math and I believe the payoff was wrong. In the 6th race at Gulfstream, Sadie Be Good only payed $3.00 to place. There was $52,325 in the place pool. She had $17,393 bet on her to place. The horse that finished 2nd (Loxley) had $5,015 bet on her to place. So if you subtract $17,393 and $5,015 from $52,325 and then you subtract $8,372 (16% take) from the place pool, you are left with $21,545. You need to cut that in half which leaves you with $10,772 for each horse.

Sadie Be Good had $17,393 bet on her to place. There should have been $10,772 left to pay those tickets off. So she should have paid $3.40 to place, not $3.00.

After a race, before the results are official, I do these calculations every day. My math is practically always right. I can't figure out how Sadie Be Good only paid $3.00 to place. Can anyone make sense of this?

[Holybull1]

I'm by no means an expert but doesn't "Net Pool Pricing" sometimes skew some of the place/show payoffs? I don't understand the concept really but I recall this being an issue in the past.

[ranger5830]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I have no idea how they could make a mistake on a place price, but I did the math and I believe the payoff was wrong. In the 6th race at Gulfstream, Sadie Be Good only payed $3.00 to place. There was $52,325 in the place pool. She had $17,393 bet on her to place. The horse that finished 2nd (Loxley) had $5,015 bet on her to place. So if you subtract $17,393 and $5,015 from $52,325 and then you subtract $8,372 (16% take) from the place pool, you are left with $21,545. You need to cut that in half which leaves you with $10,772 for each horse.

Sadie Be Good had $17,393 bet on her to place. There should have been $10,772 left to pay those tickets off. So she should have paid $3.40 to place, not $3.00.

After a race, before the results are official, I do these calculations every day. My math is practically always right. I can't figure out how Sadie Be Good only paid $3.00 to place. Can anyone make sense of this?

Firstly, the WPS takeout at Gulfstream is 17%, not 16%. But, using your numbers, when you divide 10,772 by 17,393, the answer I get is .6193..., and when you use a 17% take then the answer is lowered to .6043..., both of which are well under the .7 which would be needed for the payoff to be $3.40. If you do these calculations often, as I do, you'll know that due to net pool pricing, anytime the number lands near the breakage point, the payoff will always be short when you bet on the more well-supported winner. So while under the old calculation the payoff should have been $3.20, (albeit never $3.40) a payoff of $3.00 is not surprising at all.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by ranger5830

Firstly, the WPS takeout at Gulfstream is 17%, not 16%. But, using your numbers, when you divide 10,772 by 17,393, the answer I get is .6193..., and when you use a 17% take then the answer is lowered to .6043..., both of which are well under the .7 which would be needed for the payoff to be $3.40. If you do these calculations often, as I do, you'll know that due to net pool pricing, anytime the number lands near the breakage point, the payoff will always be short when you bet on the more well-supported winner. So while under the old calculation the payoff should have been $3.20, (albeit never $3.40) a payoff of $3.00 is not surprising at all.

Thanks Ranger!

[ScottJ]

Small, but very important, point to be noted when calculating place or show prices (pre-Net Pool Pricing days) : The takeout rate applies to the entire pool as the FIRST mathematical operation. Then, the winning wagers are subtracted from the net and divided (in two or three pots based on place or show) appropriately.

By subtracting the winner wagers first and then applying the takeout rate implies that winning wagers are NOT charged takeout which is incorrect.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by ScottJ

Small, but very important, point to be noted when calculating place or show prices (pre-Net Pool Pricing days) : The takeout rate applies to the entire pool as the FIRST mathematical operation. Then, the winning wagers are subtracted from the net and divided (in two or three pots based on place or show) appropriately.

By subtracting the winner wagers first and then applying the takeout rate implies that winning wagers are NOT charged takeout which is incorrect.

Yes, that is correct. That was how I did it. I subtracted $8,372, which is 16% of $52,325 (the total place pool). As Ranger said, I should have actually subtracted 17%, since that is the takeout on WPS bets in Florida.