Pick 3 time

This article is in the DRF but for those who dont have it here is some info on why Pick 3's are a great bet on Cup Day.

Of the 63 Cup pick 3's, 56 have returned more than the parlay
under $100 - 7
$100-$249 - 5
$250-$499 - 10
$599-$1000 - 10
$1000-$2499 - 16
$2500-$5000 - 9
over $5000 - 6

This is pretty amazing if u ask me.

Here is a good example from the article:
1993 BC at SA
Brocco - $8
Kotashaan - $5
Arcangues - $269.20
Pick 3 - $10,669 which was almost 4x the parlay. Arcangues was 133-1 in the win pool but over 500-1 in the pick 3 pool.

Basically, pick 3's are great value.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

This article is in the DRF but for those who dont have it here is some info on why Pick 3's are a great bet on Cup Day.

Of the 63 Cup pick 3's, 56 have returned more than the parlay
under $100 - 7
$100-$249 - 5
$250-$499 - 10
$599-$1000 - 10
$1000-$2499 - 16
$2500-$5000 - 9
over $5000 - 6

This is pretty amazing if u ask me.

Here is a good example from the article:
1993 BC at SA
Brocco - $8
Kotashaan - $5
Arcangues - $269.20
Pick 3 - $10,669 which was almost 4x the parlay. Arcangues was 133-1 in the win pool but over 500-1 in the pick 3 pool.

Basically, pick 3's are great value.

The last example is a pretty good reason why the ALL button isn't a bad idea sometimes.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

This article is in the DRF but for those who dont have it here is some info on why Pick 3's are a great bet on Cup Day.

Of the 63 Cup pick 3's, 56 have returned more than the parlay
under $100 - 7
$100-$249 - 5
$250-$499 - 10
$599-$1000 - 10
$1000-$2499 - 16
$2500-$5000 - 9
over $5000 - 6

This is pretty amazing if u ask me.

Here is a good example from the article:
1993 BC at SA
Brocco - $8
Kotashaan - $5
Arcangues - $269.20
Pick 3 - $10,669 which was almost 4x the parlay. Arcangues was 133-1 in the win pool but over 500-1 in the pick 3 pool.

Basically, pick 3's are great value.

Thanks. Those are for $1, I think. Real intersting that 31 of 63 paid over $1000.

[Travis Stone]

He also states in the story that one out of three legs usually goes to a favorite. To me, I'd rather find the pick three's that pay huge, and try and nail them. So, my approach will be to identify probable favorites and/or well-bet horses that I think are quite vulnerable by my own handicapping. At that point, I'll work with the P3's. As Crist said in his book, this is a wager where you don't "cast wide nets" but rather focus and score.

Off the top of my head, I'm leaning towards playing against these probable favorites:

Fleet Indian (Doesn't finish super fast, plenty of quality closers)
Gorella (Some serious Euro's)
Ouija Board (she might be over the top off a long campaign)

Hitting the "all" button is essential if you already identifies the single you are playing. I cannot understand why you wouldnt hit "all" if you are single/4 deep/all. Heck that prob is only like a $48 ticket for a $1. That is a pretty good risk v reward if you ask me.

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

He also states in the story that one out of three legs usually goes to a favorite. To me, I'd rather find the pick three's that pay huge, and try and nail them. So, my approach will be to identify probable favorites and/or well-bet horses that I think are quite vulnerable by my own handicapping. At that point, I'll work with the P3's. As Crist said in his book, this is a wager where you don't "cast wide nets" but rather focus and score.

Off the top of my head, I'm leaning towards playing against these probable favorites:

Fleet Indian (Doesn't finish super fast, plenty of quality closers)
Gorella (Some serious Euro's)
Ouija Board (she might be over the top off a long campaign)

Crist is absolutely right...however, I am not afriad to go ALL in any leg as long as my other 2 legs are slim. This allows me to focus on two legs to really make a stand.

The favs I will be taking a stand against is Benardini, Caicique/Hurricane Run and Fleet Indian/Pine Island.

Originally Posted by Cardus

I can see taking a stand against Cacique and 'Run in the Turf, and Fleet Indian in the Distaff, but it's somewhat brave to leave off Pine Island and probably foolish to toss Bernardini.

You'll kick yourself if a longshot wins the first leg, English Channel does not win the Turf, and Bernardini wins the Classic.

Another wager of note on Breeders' Cup day is the superfecta. If you really like the favorite, put it in the first spot. Find a "hinge" horse that you will use in the other spots, and mix in a handful for the other two positions (with the key and the hinge horses).

Some of these supers are... super.

The thing is is that I wont be going so deep that I get a longshot in the first two legs. For a $48 ticket, I think the risk of taking a stand against Bern is better than taking a stand against EC. I agree with what you are saying but I am willing to take the risk.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

The thing is is that I wont be going so deep that I get a longshot in the first two legs. For a $48 ticket, I think the risk of taking a stand against Bern is better than taking a stand against EC. I agree with what you are saying but I am willing to take the risk.

always remember too, that beating the favorite in the first leg of the pick-3 is almost always more valuable than beating the favorite in the last leg of the pick-3, unless that last favorite is odds-on or something.

people like to stay alive on the first leg -- if you can get a bomber in the first race, and then even go fairly chalky in the next two legs, you'll be good to go.

Originally Posted by Cardus

That's why we call it gambling, right?

And isnt it a beautiful thing too.....

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

always remember too, that beating the favorite in the first leg of the pick-3 is almost always more valuable than beating the favorite in the last leg of the pick-3, unless that last favorite is odds-on or something.

people like to stay alive on the first leg -- if you can get a bomber in the first race, and then even go fairly chalky in the next two legs, you'll be good to go.

That is my philosopy in the pick 4 and 6. I want to be "alive" going into the last leg. I could care less if it is 1/2 shot in the last. Just get me there alive. But with the pick 3 and looking at Bern being on just about every pick 3 ticket, I think the value is trying to find someone else in that leg. If I don't hit the first or second I am only out $48. If I am alive going into the last leg of that pick 3 then my $48 ticket is looking pretty good even though I dont have Bern.

I will prob do something like this in the last 3

3
2
9

for $1 that is $54

[Travis Stone]

If we felt Bernardini was a single, and we went 10 / 5 / 1 into him, then we're saying we like each of those horses the same, which of course is not true. We're investing the same on combinations we feel are less likely than combinations we feel are more likely. Crist's book opened my eyes to playing multirace wagers. Doing a one ticket catch call is a terrible move.

[Travis Stone]

Tossing for the sake of tossing is risky. If you think the horse is a legit toss, which to me means the horse has no chance today based on my handicapping, or such little chance he/she is a drastic underlay, that's one thing. But to toss Bernardini just to catch a price, I don't think you're maximizing the potential. History says that one of three favorites typically comes in a p3 in the cup. Despite this fact, the payoffs are still high.

[jpops757]

With the classic being the last leg of pk3sand4s Bernie deserves to be my single and hope I get some value in the other races. If Im alive to a single to bernnie, Ill try for some value with a ccouple or 3 other on top of tris.

[bogeydaman]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

This article is in the DRF but for those who dont have it here is some info on why Pick 3's are a great bet on Cup Day.

Of the 63 Cup pick 3's, 56 have returned more than the parlay
under $100 - 7
$100-$249 - 5
$250-$499 - 10
$599-$1000 - 10
$1000-$2499 - 16
$2500-$5000 - 9
over $5000 - 6

This is pretty amazing if u ask me.

Here is a good example from the article:
1993 BC at SA
Brocco - $8
Kotashaan - $5
Arcangues - $269.20
Pick 3 - $10,669 which was almost 4x the parlay. Arcangues was 133-1 in the win pool but over 500-1 in the pick 3 pool.

Basically, pick 3's are great value.

Agreed with the last sentence. It does not however take the Breeders Cup to prove the point. You can probably take any random 63 races around the country any given day and somewhere darn near 90% of the pick 3's will pay more than the parlay and probably at least 1 will be 3 to 4 times the parlay. Also keep in mind that the payoff on the average will be a function of the field size. Most BC races historically are full fields (12 horses). 12x12x12=1728 possible combination with a 25% takeout is about $1300, 11x11x11 = $1000.

[dellinger63]

I also think that understanding the 'bias' of a horse player that is a NY'er is likely to use primarly east coast horses, KY the same and West coast usually SA, HOL horses making the pic 3 ticket bias heavy.
Keeping an open mind and combining horses from different circuits usually pay off boxcar numbers when they come in. I think the same thing goes for playing tri's and supers as well. Especially in the sprint and juvi races where the casual player may not be as aware of the horses like they may be with the Classic or Turf.
Just my opinon.

Man, talking about betting philosophy gets me pumped up.

[tycharles01]

The money Pik3 is gonna be the -

Juvy Filly,Juvy,FM Turf

All/4 or 5 deep/2 deep

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by tycharles01

The money Pik3 is gonna be the -

Juvy Filly,Juvy,FM Turf

All/4 or 5 deep/2 deep

i don't think that one will offer much value at all. while the Juvy fillies is an inscrutable division -- there are plenty in the body of the field that can't win unless the other 13 drop dead during the running.

i doubt your JF winner will be over 8-1, this actually seems like one of the more likely chalky pick-3s.

i obviously could be very very wrong -- though i say that assuming your 2 in the FM turf would be ouija board and wait a while.

just thinking out loud.

[Travis Stone]

Juv. Fillies is the most favorite-dominated race of the Cup's history I do believe.