got a few questions and thanks ahead of time for answers

[ontheoutside]

last week steve had on his show a fella who has picked the derby something like 7 out of last 11 years was it jay priveman?

and the 2nd question and im confused about it
but you guys would no better then me

when handicapping i always thought one of the things to put into the equation was post position
am i right in assuming that?
so if im right, then explain this to me im listening to the draw today for the oaks and as soon as they get done with it tthey go to mike batagglias morning line within a minute of the draw/
so obviously he already had his odds before the draw and therefore the draw doesnt mean much to the odds?
i would think a horse with a post postition of 6 and is 8 to 1
would have his odds go higher if he drew post 14
am i right in assuming that or just smoke and mirrors/
thanks again

[robfla]

Originally Posted by ontheoutside

when handicapping i always thought one of the things to put into the equation was post position
am i right in assuming that?

Post position is more important in the Derby than the Oaks. The 1 horse has to maneuver a gap as well as any horses gunning for the rail. Think of Lookin' at Lucky

Plus there are more horses and an auxiliary gate in the Derby.

[3kings]

Originally Posted by ontheoutside

last week steve had on his show a fella who has picked the derby something like 7 out of last 11 years was it jay priveman?

and the 2nd question and im confused about it
but you guys would no better then me

when handicapping i always thought one of the things to put into the equation was post position
am i right in assuming that?
so if im right, then explain this to me im listening to the draw today for the oaks and as soon as they get done with it tthey go to mike batagglias morning line within a minute of the draw/
so obviously he already had his odds before the draw and therefore the draw doesnt mean much to the odds?
i would think a horse with a post postition of 6 and is 8 to 1
would have his odds go higher if he drew post 14
am i right in assuming that or just smoke and mirrors/
thanks again

Battaglia probably had a few morning lines ready. If none of the favorites were completely compromised he just went with One of the scenarios he already produced. The Oaks draw as stated above because of the distance and fewer horses is much less important..

[HoosierInOhio]

Morning Line is where he thinks the public will land, not a true betting line. Some may choose to factor PP in to their personal true odds line. I rarely factor in post position unless it's statistically relevant, but then it's more like either use or toss.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by ontheoutside

last week steve had on his show a fella who has picked the derby something like 7 out of last 11 years was it jay privman?

Tom..

It is Jay Privman that's 7 for the last 11.. Jay has had the best information all Derby season ahead of everything involving Malagacy, Battalion Runner, Thunder Snow, Girvin and more. He does an incredible job.

And yes, Battaglia has instant ML adjustment options for the draw.