6/8: Belmont Park (1st-9th)

[Kasept]

It's an idyllic day (finally) on Long Island as Belmont Week starts in earnest today with a terrific card.. Prepare for 72 hours of really good racing and wagering opportunities.


BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: MSW, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P5, P3, DD)

33 race extravaganza kicks off with a wild assembly of talent including firsters Tapping Colors ($700k 4yo Mandy Pope buy from Chad Brown), Steidle (4yo Ed Stanco homebred Princess of Sylmar half sister from Pletcher) and Fashion Week (Andrew Rosen Speightstown homebred out of his Theyskens' Theory from Shug). Those that have run feature Sweet Avery (Don Adam homebred out of Ready's Gal from Henning), Transaction Tax (Klaravich $300k Gemologist from Chad), Schema (half sister to emergent Met Mile candidate Virtual Machine from Cannizzo) and Privy Council (4yo StarLadies Majesticperfection that flashed talent at GP last winter).

Most Likely: #3 Sweet Avery 5-1 5th
Best Value: #8 Schema 10-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Transaction Tax 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Fashion Week 6-1 9th


2nd: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

SCR Wicked Macho who runs Saturday in the Easy Goer. Peter Eurton (via Toscano barn) wheels and stretches Giant Expectations off diploma earned 10 days ago on wet track and have to wonder if he doesn't regress from that effort. 20-1 Royal Ekati and sharp Build to Suit (7-2) well within striking distance, while both Weaver players (8-1 Dynamax Prime & 12-1 Fleet Irish) show progressive form..

Most Likely: #4 Giant Expectations 3-1 WON ($3.90)
Next Best: #6 Build to Suit 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #5 Royal Ekati 20-1 8th
Exotics Use: #8 Dynamax Prime 8-1 5th


3rd: 4th Wonder Again (G3), 3yo-F, 9f-IT (P3, DD)

Nice six pack of sophomore gals and while half the field (Dream Dancing, New Money Honey, Coasted) feel more likely than the other 3, with group separated by about 2 lengths on paper, using all in some fashion may be prudent for the multis. Pace scenario a little vacuous, so as Ron Anderson told you Tuesday, Corporate Queen will be trying to steal it up front. Note that if she can't, she'll at least be aiding stablemate Dream Dancing who needs pace for her late kick. Maybe that was the plan all along..

Most Likely: #2 Dream Dancing 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Fifty Five 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Coasted 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 New Money Honey 8-5 WON ($4.10)


4th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD)

Wildly entertaining set of gals including Apiary (Full to Frosted and plenty eligible to like the lawn), Soar Once More (Phillips' Medaglia d'Oro out of Soaring Softly) and debuting $775k Iris Smith/Lady Sheila/Linda Rice Quality Road daughter Equalityforall. Star Maven interests at 20-1 for Gyarmati/Treadway after pair of solid closing runs on notoriously speedy Gulfstream turf. More than half this field is eligible for laurels..

Best Value: #5 Star Maven 20-1 11th
Next Best: #4 Kahrumana 3-1 WON ($5.10)
Exotics Use: #1 Conspiring 8-1 9th
Super Add: #13 Resonate 10-1 3rd


5th: 106th Astoria, 2yo, 5.5f (G/S, P3, DD)

Seemingly well-matched baby girls and looks like several will grapple for lead. Tractability will come in handy and Best Performance (6-1) showed it in 5f debut win. I Still Miss You, as discussed Wednesday with Miah Englehart, a determined winner first out at 5f. Di Maria (Ryerson for Nagrete) and Waki Patriot (savvy juvy conditioner John Hancock) come in from FL and KY and could juice exotics (at the least). Pletcher always tough with 2yo fillies. Oh.. and Wesley Ward is involved in this too..

Most Likely: #3 Sugar Queen 3-1 4th
Best Value: #7 Best Performance 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 I Still Miss You 4-1 WON ($10.80)
Exotics Use: #8 Di Maria 10-1 6th


P5 Grid:

1: 3-6-8 (A), 5-9 (B), - (C)
2: 4 (A), - (B), 5-6 (C)
3: 2-4 (A), 1-7 (B), 3-5 (C)
4: 1-4-5-13 (A), - (B), 3-6-7-11 (C)
5: 3-7 (A), - (B), 2-4-6-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x1x4x4x2 = 160 x .50 = $80
All A's: 3x1x2x3x3 = 54 x .50 = $27


P4 Grid:

2: 4 (A), 5-6 (B), 1-8-9 (C)
3: 2-4 (A), 1-7 (B), 3-5 (C)
4: 1-4-5-13 (A), - (B), 3-6-7-11 (C)
5: 2-3-7 (A), - (B), 4-6-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 1x2x4x3 = $24 ($12 for .50)

$0.50 Pick-4 (3,4,7/6,7/4,6,15,16/2) Paid $48.12


6th: OC/N1X, 3+, 11f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Nice, bulky group with grizzled veteran types versus several steadily-developing types..

Most Likely: #7 Richmond Street 3-1 11th
Best Value: #11 War Bond 8-1 5th
Next Best: #10 Flying Bullet 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Sunset District 15-1 7th


7th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Terrific conditional ALW with plenty of stakes-caliber sprinters.. 3-4-5-8-11-13 the ones to focus upon..

Most Likely: #5 Patternrecognition 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Bombs Away 10-1 8th
Next Best: #8 Coal Front 5-2 WON ($4.60)
Exotics Use: #4 So Noted 12-1 6th


8th: 4th Intercontinental (G3), F&M-4+, 7f-T (DD)

Take These Chains looms a big lean for multis..

Most Likely: #9 Take These Chains 5-2 8th
Next Best: #4 Fair Point 8-1 4th
Best Value: #7 Conquest Babayaga 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Mississippi Delta 7-2 WON ($15.20)


9th: NY-MSW, 3+, 6f-IT

Fun state bred bunch.. Daring Destiny o/o Ahvee's Destiny; Red Knight half to Macagone (and Birchwood Road who runs in the 6th..

Most Likely: #11 Uncle Tbone 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #9 Daring Destiny 12-1 10th
Exotics Use: #8 Top Hat City 3-1 6th
Super Add: #4 Saratoga Colonel 20-1 8th


P4 Grid:

6: 7-9-10-11 (A), - (B), 4-6-13-14 (C)
7: 3-5 (A), 4-8 (B), - (C)
8: 9 (A), - (B), 2-4-5-7-8 (C)
9: 4-8-9-11 (A), 1-5-10-12 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x4x1x8 = 128 x .50 = $64
All A's: 4x2x1x4 = 32 x .50 = $16


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

BEL SCR/CHG'S

[ADJMK]

You specifically asked JE about Crawdaddy and this dummy only used him in multis and never had any win money. Was dead in multis and too busy looking at Fri & Sat cards to notice that he had gone up to 30-1. Big lost opportunity.