heres one i heard

[ontheoutside]

what do you guys think? listening to a show my grandson gets on the internet about horse racing
and one of the analists said its a proven fact 90 % of all north amaerican races are won by horses that are 10 to 1 or less

does anyone think that's true?

or does anyone know if its a reality?

thanks

[opusone]

This is a small sample of four tracks on Saturday to see how many winners paid more than $22.00. He may be correct

Arlington 8 races 0
Delmar 10 races 1
Saratoga 11 races 3
Woodbine 10 races 1

I think the higher level of competition leads to the chances of higher prices

[jms62]

Originally Posted by ontheoutside

what do you guys think? listening to a show my grandson gets on the internet about horse racing
and one of the analists said its a proven fact 90 % of all north amaerican races are won by horses that are 10 to 1 or less

does anyone think that's true?

or does anyone know if its a reality?

thanks

Year      Races       Wins   < 10/1                    
2017     23,436    21,017   89.67%

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by jms62

Year      Races       Wins   < 10/1                    
2017     23,436    21,017   89.67%

U wouldnt happen to have that in your database for say the last decade?

[jms62]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

U wouldnt happen to have that in your database for say the last decade?

From 1/3/2015

Year                         Races       Wins   < 10/1                    
1/3/2015-Present           100,769       89,812   89.13%

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by jms62

From 1/3/2015

Year                         Races       Wins   < 10/1                    
1/3/2015-Present           100,769       89,812   89.13%

I know this is off the wall questions but I wonder what the stats are on horses over 10/1 hitting the pick 4 sequence, I can do the simple math but wonder what the rates are actual.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I know this is off the wall questions but I wonder what the stats are on horses over 10/1 hitting the pick 4 sequence, I can do the simple math but wonder what the rates are actual.

I'd love to but unfortunately I would have no way to identify which races are in the P4 at each track. Also I couldn't just assume 2-5 and last 4 as it doesn't work out that way all the time. Take today at Saratoga it is 3-6...

[OTM Al]

Originally Posted by ontheoutside

what do you guys think? listening to a show my grandson gets on the internet about horse racing
and one of the analists said its a proven fact 90 % of all north amaerican races are won by horses that are 10 to 1 or less

does anyone think that's true?

or does anyone know if its a reality?

thanks

If the markets are efficient, which they will tend to be in the long run, yeah, I think it is true. If it wasn't, players would be making exploitable mistakes.

[declansharbor]

Great info, Jim!

I'm sure there's no way to differentiate this, but I was wondering if it's possible to categorize this between races that had 6 or less runners and between 7-12 runners. Total shot in the dark but it doesnt hurt to ask.

[jms62]

Year To Date

Field	 # < 10-1	Pct	
2	11	11	100.0%	
3	46	46	100.0%	
4	376	367	97.6%	
5	2063	1981	96.0%	
6	4782	4475	93.6%	94.5% (6 and Below)
7	5447	4968	91.2%	87.5% (7 and Up)
8	4228	3734	88.3%	
9	2903	2518	86.7%	
10	2196	1833	83.5%	
11	899	725	80.6%	
12	641	513	80.0%	
13	37	29	78.4%	
14	30	20	66.7%	
20	1	1	100.0%	
 	23,660

[jms62]

Since 1-1-2015

Field	#  Win< 10			
1	1	1	100.0%		
2	17	17	100.0%		
3	154	154	100.0%		
4	1320	1301	98.6%		
5	7828	7534	96.2%		
6	19107	17965	94.0%	94.9%	 6 or Less
7	21931	19991	91.2%	87.0%	7 or More
8	18443	16369	88.8%		
9	13072	11154	85.3%		
10	10434	8663	83.0%		
11	4440	3619	81.5%		
12	3592	2830	78.8%		
13	311	238	76.5%		
14	250	177	70.8%		
20	3	3	100.0%		
	100,903

[declansharbor]

Dude, awesome stuff! Thanks for the stats!

Keep them P5's coming. You know more than anyone, all it takes is 1 to turn it ALL around! Nice prices to be had tomorrow at Saratoga & Arlington, imo!