Soumillion on Librettist

brockguy · #1 10-30-2006, 06:44 PM

nice spare ride for him. he'll also be on Hurricane Run in the Turf and Germance in the Filly and Mare. And when he wins a race (hopefully for my sake on Germance!!), and the race caller calls him French, make sure you tell everyone around you that he is not in fact French, but Belgian!!

blackthroatedwind · #2 10-30-2006, 07:14 PM

I guess that means Dettori will ride Echo of Light which probably means Godolphin likes his chances more.

ateamstupid · #3 10-30-2006, 08:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brockguy

nice spare ride for him. he'll also be on Hurricane Run in the Turf and Germance in the Filly and Mare. And when he wins a race (hopefully for my sake on Germance!!), and the race caller calls him French, make sure you tell everyone around you that he is not in fact French, but Belgian!!

How come he's not on Araafa? Did Noseda just pick Johnny V. instead?

ateamstupid · #4 10-30-2006, 09:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Good question. I think I read Noseda wanted someone who was familiar with Churchill, not that Johnny has ridden all that much there, but obviously more than Soumillion. I think BTW hit it right on the head though about Librettist. He must not be doing all that well, considering he was so highly thought of before the QEII. Or maybe Echo of Light is just doing really well right now.

Well they said he came out of the race lame, then all of a sudden he's ready to run in the BC Mile? I like Echo of Light a lil' bit.. Now watch Librettist win by five..

repent · #5 10-31-2006, 02:14 AM

I just dont know why Im the only guy besides Caruthers who likes Librettist here in this spot.

I like Aussie Rules a lot, always have, but I was of the belief that Librettist was a freak before the QE2.
one race should not change that. Im sticking with him.

Repent

blackthroatedwind · #6 10-31-2006, 02:48 AM

It feels like the Euros in the mile are reasonably matched. I realize Araafa and Librettist are probably best at the top of their game but Librettist is suspect and a few of the others are close enough that at the odds it may be wise to use as many as possible in multi-race bets. Honestly Gorella is the only horse that has been racing here that I will use.

repent · #7 10-31-2006, 02:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It feels like the Euros in the mile are reasonably matched. I realize Araafa and Librettist are probably best at the top of their game but Librettist is suspect and a few of the others are close enough that at the odds it may be wise to use as many as possible in multi-race bets. Honestly Gorella is the only horse that has been racing here that I will use.

yeah,
Aussie Rules showed up KEE and beat a lot of our better milers.
and I doubt Europe considered him one of the better hopes.

Silent Name is intersting and looked really good on TVG's the Works for whatever that is worth.

hes sort of a Japanese, French, and now American horse all rolled into one.

Repent

blackthroatedwind · #8 10-31-2006, 03:17 AM

He was just so bad at Keeneland and Aragorn handled him pretty easily out West.

King Glorious · #9 10-31-2006, 03:54 AM

I'm not ready to throw Silent Name out just yet. I thought his win in the Arcadia was one of the better performances I've seen in the division this year from an American horse. He ran a 1:33 flat that day. In the Shoemaker, he was beaten two by Aragorn but they ran that race in a quick 1:32 4/5 so he went just around 1:33 1/5 that day. Aragorn handled him again in the Read but that was at 9f. At the mile mark that day, he was only a length behind Aragorn and they hit the mile in 1:33 2/5. I know that for many, time means nothing but I always like to see a horse be able to be in the same area over different tracks and here are three different ones where he's gone in the 1:33 1/5 range. I've seen enough horses have no fondness at all for Keeneland's turf and come back and run well elsewhere so I won't hold that against him. Of course, Aragorn has gone sub 1:33 on each of the tracks that Silent Name did. I just think that if anyone likes Aragorn here, Silent Name is not far behind him, and they are certainly closer than the 4/1 to 30/1 difference Watchmaker has them at in the DRF.

zippyneedsawin · #10 10-31-2006, 08:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It feels like the Euros in the mile are reasonably matched. I realize Araafa and Librettist are probably best at the top of their game but Librettist is suspect and a few of the others are close enough that at the odds it may be wise to use as many as possible in multi-race bets. Honestly Gorella is the only horse that has been racing here that I will use.

that's the way I'm leaning right now too: using just the Euros and Gorella for the mile.

blackthroatedwind · #11 10-31-2006, 08:37 AM

Watchmaker's line has ZERO to do with his opinion of the race. It is his opinion of how these horses will be bet. Do you honestly think he is off on how these horses will be bet? Personally, I think he may be wrong about Aragorn, in that he will be a bit higher, but I have a hard time disagreeing with the relative differential. I am not saying at 7 or 8 times the price that Silent Name MAY not be a better bet.

philcski · #12 10-31-2006, 09:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It feels like the Euros in the mile are reasonably matched. I realize Araafa and Librettist are probably best at the top of their game but Librettist is suspect and a few of the others are close enough that at the odds it may be wise to use as many as possible in multi-race bets. Honestly Gorella is the only horse that has been racing here that I will use.

Any opinion on Sleeping Indian? Was very sharp against lesser in his last. Last time at a mile he was only 5 off of Starcraft and Dubawi (last years QEII), who I'd think either would be favored in this race.
Gotta think he'll be getting the first jump out of the Euros and on CD's turf course, that isn't a bad thing given the sharp turns. The trainer knows how to win this race. Going to get 30-1...

King Glorious · #13 10-31-2006, 09:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Watchmaker's line has ZERO to do with his opinion of the race. It is his opinion of how these horses will be bet. Do you honestly think he is off on how these horses will be bet? Personally, I think he may be wrong about Aragorn, in that he will be a bit higher, but I have a hard time disagreeing with the relative differential. I am not saying at 7 or 8 times the price that Silent Name MAY not be a better bet.

I know it's not his opinion of the race but yes, I think he's off on how they will be bet. I don't think they difference will be that high. I think maybe 5/1 to 20/1 would be more likely, so four times the price instead of 7.5 times the price.

blackthroatedwind · #14 10-31-2006, 10:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I know it's not his opinion of the race but yes, I think he's off on how they will be bet. I don't think they difference will be that high. I think maybe 5/1 to 20/1 would be more likely, so four times the price instead of 7.5 times the price.

Are you familiar with the phrase " cherry picking "?

I will bet you three " I am a complete idiot "s that Silent Name is over 25-1 and I will take 2-1 on another three that he is over 30-1.

blackthroatedwind · #15 10-31-2006, 10:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

Any opinion on Sleeping Indian? Was very sharp against lesser in his last. Last time at a mile he was only 5 off of Starcraft and Dubawi (last years QEII), who I'd think either would be favored in this race.
Gotta think he'll be getting the first jump out of the Euros and on CD's turf course, that isn't a bad thing given the sharp turns. The trainer knows how to win this race. Going to get 30-1...

I realize he has a couple of races in the past that seem to make him competitive, but he does seem like the least likeliest Euro, but considering what will likely be huge odds he may not be a hopeless throw in. I think the horse he beat last time, Killybegs( ? ), was pretty well beaten by one of the favs, maybe Araafa.

#16 10-31-2006, 10:14 AM

I like so many horses in the Mile it isnt funny. The Mile is all about trip. I really like Gorella and Librettist. However, I wouldnt be surprised to see a wire to wire victory here.

blackthroatedwind · #17 10-31-2006, 10:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eurobounce

I like so many horses in the Mile it isnt funny. The Mile is all about trip. I really like Gorella and Librettist. However, I wouldnt be surprised to see a wire to wire victory here.

You like Badge of Silver???

I don't.

Pointg5 · #18 10-31-2006, 10:20 AM

Free Thinking could be the Northeast Bound of this BC...

Cajungator26 · #19 10-31-2006, 10:39 AM

Silent Name looked good working on the Works...

He's also due to stand stud here in the US after this year, I believe. It'd be a good thing to see him do well.

King Glorious · #20 10-31-2006, 10:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

Any opinion on Sleeping Indian? Was very sharp against lesser in his last. Last time at a mile he was only 5 off of Starcraft and Dubawi (last years QEII), who I'd think either would be favored in this race.
Gotta think he'll be getting the first jump out of the Euros and on CD's turf course, that isn't a bad thing given the sharp turns. The trainer knows how to win this race. Going to get 30-1...

I know u asked BTW but here's my take on this horse. I think he's a longshot at best. He's been unsuccessful three times now when moving up to grade one company. I think that's important because I looked and every European shipper that has won the Mile except for Domedriver has had at least one grade one win prior to winning the Mile. And Domedriver had at least run second in a grade one. European sprinters have done ok in the Mile (Last Tycoon and Royal Academy come to mind) and that gives some hope to a horse like Sleeping Indian but I think there accomplished milers to take him seriously. Also, both times he tried a mile in stakes company, the comment line says he faded. One last thing is that the Challenge Stakes, the race he just won, doesn't have a history as a producer of Mile wins. Only three of the winners have come over for the Mile but none were a factor and in fact, no horse that's finished on the board in that race has ever been a factor in the Mile. In my opinion, he's the longest shot of the European invaders.