8/28: Saratoga (Day 34; Better Talk Now)

[Kasept]

SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: NY-MSW, 3+, 5.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Smallish group but replete with well-bred Empire products including Discretionary Marq, full to Discreet Marq, as well as Broman/Rice firster Heart in Hand, a Giant's Causeway out of Seeking the Ante, thus a half to Mineralogist..

Most Likely: #3 Heart in Hand 7-2 4th
Next Best: #5 Discretionary Marq 4-5 2nd
Best Value: #7 Side Tracks 10-1 6th
Exotics Use: #2 Speightful Kitten 5-2 WON ($6.90)


2nd: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Isotope 3-1 WON ($7.10)
Next Best: #5 Easy Way Out 8-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 North Eighth Street 4-1 4th
Super Add: #1 Desirous 9-2 5th


3rd: CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Futile 4-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Marriedtothemusic 5-2 WON ($5.50)
Exotics Use: #6 A Fleet Attitude 2-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Scarly Charly 8-1 4th


4th: MCLM/$40k, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Aife 3-1 WON ($4.90)
Best Value: #2 Matinee Babe 12-1 8th
Next Best: #5 Cleo 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Grevillea 10-1 6th


5th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 7f (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Honor Up 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #9 Rockin Jo 12-1 9th
Next Best: #2 Big Gemmy 7-2 WON ($7.50)
Exotics Use: #3 Golden Seal 4-1 5th


P5 Grid:

1: 3-5 (A), 2-7 (B), 1-6 (C)
2: 1-2-5-8 (A), - (B), 7 (C)
3: 1-3 (A), - (B), 4-5-6-7 (C)
4: 4 (A), - (B), 2-5-6 (C)
5: 9-10 (A), 2-3-4 (B), 7-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x4x2x1x5 = 160 x .50 = $80
All A's: 2x4x2x1x2 = 32 x .50 = $16

$0.50 PICK FIVE (2/2/1,2/4,13,14,15/2) $344.75


P4 Grid:

2: 1-2-5-8 (A), 7 (B), - (C)
3: 1-3 (A), 6 (B), 4-5-7 (C)
4: 4 (A), - (B), 2-5-6 (C)
5: 2-9-10 (A), 3-4 (B), 7-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x1x5 = $60 ($30 for .50)
All A's: 4x2x1x3 = $24 ($12 for .50)

$1 'All A's' PICK FOUR (2/1,2/4,13,14,15/2) $101.75 ($50.87 for .50)


6th: CLM, 3yo, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 The Great Samurai 20-1 6th
Next Best: #9 Minister's Strike 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #10 Hot and Heavy 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Sanavi 8-1 5th


7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P3,

Most Likely: #7 Fire Key 6-1 WON ($5.90)
Next Best: #8 Vigor 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #10 First Charmer 12-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Quality Time 9-2 4th

$1 EXACTA (7-8) $6.40
$1 TRIFECTA (7-8-10) $65.00
$1 SUPERFECTA (7-8-10-2) $388.00


8th: 4th Better Talk Now-R, 3yo, 1m-IT (DD)

Best Value: #7 Holiday Stone 9-2 4th
Next Best: #1 Blind Ambition 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Snap Decision 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #3 Hieroglyphics 3-1 WON ($17.40)


9th: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f-T

Totally mysterious group. Guessing on pedigree and works..

Most Likely: #4 Stone Cold Flirt 5-1 10th
Best Value: #5 English Soul 15-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Halo Laelia 3-1 8th
Exotics Use: #6 Nazay 8-1 7th
Super Add: #2 Viradia 7-2 9th


P5 Grid:

5: 2-9-10 (A), - (B), 3-4-7-8 (C)
6: 2-9 (A), - (B), 1-4-5-10 (C)
7: 7-8 (A), - (B), 2-3-10 (C)
8: 7 (A), 1-2 (B), 3-5-6 (C)
9: 4-5-10 (A), - (B), 2-6-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x2x3x3 = 108 x .50 = $54
All A's: 3x2x2x1x3 = 36 x .50 = $18


P4 Grid:

6: 2-9-10 (A), - (B), 1-4-5 (C)
7: 7-8 (A), - (B), 2-3-10 (C)
8: 1-7 (A), 2-3 (B), 5-6 (C)
9: 4-5-10 (A), 2-6-9 (B), 1-3-7-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x4x6 = 108 x .50 = $54
All A's: 3x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18


Good luck!
Steve

[tywizard]

Shug FTS at 7F alert.

[Kasept]

SAR SCR/CHG'S

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by tywizard

Shug FTS at 7F alert.

If he was any good, he would have been training on the training track.

[northeastbound123]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

If he was any good, he would have been training on the training track.

Was this horse a transfer? Would explain
Blew out 3F yesterday

[tywizard]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

If he was any good, he would have been training on the training track.

This is an angle that I know Steve has talked about over the years...

If you look at his (Shug) record of 2YO FTS on dirt over the past 5 years he wins at 6% and 23% ITM from 47 starters.

If you isolate to those that have debuted at 7F you get 13% wins and 50% ITM (albeit from 8 starters).

Perhaps more importantly, the 7F list includes Honor Code and Ironicus...So maybe a sign the barn thinks the horse might have some talent.

The 2/83 (48 flat) gate drill on 8/14 over the track, the blowout yesterday and the leading rider of the meet signs on...

I think the Mott horse is the most likely winner but Mango M is certainly worth a look.

[tywizard]

Originally Posted by northeastbound123

Was this horse a transfer? Would explain
Blew out 3F yesterday

Steve might know the story. August Dawn in the stable for Parcells...And as far as I can tell this will be the first horse that Shug has trained for the stable.

[Alabama Stakes]

If they want you to cook the meal, they ought to at least let you shop for the groceries . - Bill Parcells

[knickslions2]

Mango M looks very live here. I have him as my top in that race in a field with no world beaters

[atolunch]

Steve,

Please double check. Aife is the #4 in the 4th race, not #3 as you have listed and in the verticals.

Thanks as always and best of luck today!

[myke]

thank you for your hard work.....


I hope you had the travers exacta, tri and super twenty times

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by tywizard

Steve might know the story. August Dawn in the stable for Parcells...And as far as I can tell this will be the first horse that Shug has trained for the stable.

Has been with Shug from the outset, part of a group of purchases Parcells made at KEE (yearlings) and this winter (2yo's) that have largely had problems including one injured while shipping and 3 others that have gotten hurt and been given away. He has also moved the horses he had with Mott and Sciacca to Miah Englehart, though Any Questions was taken by Jacobson in first start for the new barn and Hit It Once More purchased privately by Gary last week.

Shug trained for Parcells years ago when he had horses with Francesa.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by atolunch

Steve,

Please double check. Aife is the #4 in the 4th race, not #3 as you have listed and in the verticals.

Thanks as always and best of luck today!

THX Larry.. G/L!

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by myke

thank you for your hard work.....


I hope you had the travers exacta, tri and super twenty times

Myke..

Awfully kind.. Thank you. Was a terrific result Saturday and hope you and many more benefited. Did very nicely myself, though I'm not a super player..

Best of luck today and the rest of the meet!