Keeneland - 12.3% increase in handle

#1 10-31-2006, 12:49 PM

Not too bad at all. The field size avg 10.02 starters. The interstate comingled wagering rose 16.9%. I predicted a 15% increase and I was wrong but 12.3% is still very good. Good job Keeneland.

#2 10-31-2006, 12:52 PM

Yeah that's great. Hooray Keeneland.

Pointg5 · #3 10-31-2006, 12:52 PM

Not surprised, I thought they would see an increase, first major track to run poly. I think the real comparison will be next years Fall meet, that's when you'll see the big dropoff. Even some of the people here that were praising KEE started to turn on them. I give them 2 years and that stuff will be gone...

#4 10-31-2006, 01:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pointg5

Not surprised, I thought they would see an increase, first major track to run poly. I think the real comparison will be next years Fall meet, that's when you'll see the big dropoff. Even some of the people here that were praising KEE started to turn on them. I give them 2 years and that stuff will be gone...

Blah blah blah--always an excuse. Always the wait and see approach. The spring 07 meet wont see a 12.3% increase but it will be a good one.

Rupert Pupkin · #5 10-31-2006, 02:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pointg5

Not surprised, I thought they would see an increase, first major track to run poly. I think the real comparison will be next years Fall meet, that's when you'll see the big dropoff. Even some of the people here that were praising KEE started to turn on them. I give them 2 years and that stuff will be gone...

If anything, handle will pick up from here. The more that people get used to polytrack, the more comfortable they will be wagering on it.

There's practically no chance that the polytrack will be gone from Keeneland in 2 years. The chances of that are less than 1%. It's more like .0001%. They just spent millions of dollars putting it in. The jockeys love it, the trainers love it and the owners love it. Horses stay much more sound training on it and racing on it. You will see a big increase in field size because of it. Bigger fields mean bigger handle.

I'm not going to go so far as to say that polytrack will be everywhere in 5 years, but I will say that you will see it at several more tracks in 5 years. The use of polytrack will increase dramatically over the next few years.

Here in Southern California, the trainers aren't just happy with it, they're ecstatic with it. I haven't heard one complaint. Everybody loves it. The horses are staying much sounder training over it.

Pointg5 · #6 10-31-2006, 03:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

If anything, handle will pick up from here. The more that people get used to polytrack, the more comfortable they will be wagering on it.

There's practically no chance that the polytrack will be gone from Keeneland in 2 years. The chances of that are less than 1%. It's more like .0001%. They just spent millions of dollars putting it in. The jockeys love it, the trainers love it and the owners love it. Horses stay much more sound training on it and racing on it. You will see a big increase in field size because of it. Bigger fields mean bigger handle.

I'm not going to go so far as to say that polytrack will be everywhere in 5 years, but I will say that you will see it at several more tracks in 5 years. The use of polytrack will increase dramatically over the next few years.

Here in Southern California, the trainers aren't just happy with it, they're ecstatic with it. I haven't heard one complaint. Everybody loves it. The horses are staying much sounder training over it.

I disagree, initial thoughts are that it's probably great for training and will keep horses sound and that's a good thing, that I do not deny. As for the racing, what about the owner that just spent millions on horses that are precocious and built for speed? Do you really think they are going to be happy watching their million dollar babies out there spinning their wheels? What do you think is going to happen out there when all of those Cali Speedballs are tanking, you think owners are going to be happy. Sure, they may have a healthy horse, that is not earning anything. What Kee has done is essentially made itself a training track and that trend will continue. I don't think that was their intention.

Pointg5 · #7 10-31-2006, 03:08 PM

I tell you what, maybe I'll claim a horse at TP this Winter, if it likes the Poly maybe I'll take it to the Blue Grass and make it a G1 Winner...

Do you really think Aire Siempre and Bel Aire Beauty are worthy G1 winners? They'll both be up the track come BC Day...

disappearingdan_akaplaya · #8 10-31-2006, 03:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pointg5

I disagree, initial thoughts are that it's probably great for training and will keep horses sound and that's a good thing, that I do not deny. As for the racing, what about the owner that just spent millions on horses that are precocious and built for speed? Do you really think they are going to be happy watching their million dollar babies out there spinning their wheels? What do you think is going to happen out there when all of those Cali Speedballs are tanking, you think owners are going to be happy. Sure, they may have a healthy horse, that is not earning anything. What Kee has done is essentially made itself a training track and that trend will continue. I don't think that was their intention.

i got news for you expensive auction buys tank on the track even when its not polytrack...........LOL taken a look at the d wayne luka$$ stable at all the last 5 years?

disappearingdan_akaplaya · #9 10-31-2006, 03:11 PM

1 more thing to add on from personal experience. my trainer took a horse over to turfway this past january who was coming off 2 wins here at hawthorne in the fall. stepped on the poly the first time and romped over it@13-1. i dont think it hinders the % of horses many think if at all

Rupert Pupkin · #10 10-31-2006, 03:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pointg5

I disagree, initial thoughts are that it's probably great for training and will keep horses sound and that's a good thing, that I do not deny. As for the racing, what about the owner that just spent millions on horses that are precocious and built for speed? Do you really think they are going to be happy watching their million dollar babies out there spinning their wheels? What do you think is going to happen out there when all of those Cali Speedballs are tanking, you think owners are going to be happy. Sure, they may have a healthy horse, that is not earning anything. What Kee has done is essentially made itself a training track and that trend will continue. I don't think that was their intention.

As time goes on, speed will start to do a little better there. The reason is because if all the jocks know that the track is anti-speed, nobody will want to go to the lead. They will all take back and the pace will be much slower. This will give the speed horses a better chance.

How has Keeneland made itself a training track? I think the field size was bigger than normal this meet. You can only say that a track has made itslef a training track if tons of horses are training there but field size is shrinking. That's not happening. Field size is increasing.

You are right that some horses may not like polytrack and there are some speed horses that won't do nearly as well over it. Nothing is perfect. The one negative about all the Southern California tracks switching to polytrack is that if you have a horse that doesn't like it, you're screwed. You have to ship somwehere else. But the same thing happenes right now if you have a horse that doesn't like the rock-hard tracks out here. You may need to ship him somewhere else.

Anyway, polytrack is not perfect. There are pros and cons but I think the pros far outweigh the cons. Don't get me wrong. I don't want all tracks to switch to polytrack. I think the track surfaces in New York are excellent. They don't need polytrack. Not only that, I want to have options for our horses that don't like polytrack. I want to have the option of shipping somewhere that has normal dirt, if a horse doesn't like polytrack.

Rupert Pupkin · #11 10-31-2006, 03:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pointg5

I tell you what, maybe I'll claim a horse at TP this Winter, if it likes the Poly maybe I'll take it to the Blue Grass and make it a G1 Winner...

Do you really think Aire Siempre and Bel Aire Beauty are worthy G1 winners? They'll both be up the track come BC Day...

Polytrack is not like normal dirt. It's a different surface. Nobody is denying that. There will be turf horses that run poorly on normal dirt that will run well on polytrack.

In tennis, they play on 3 different surfaces. There is clay, grass, and cement. Some guys dominate on one surface but not another. Federer is not that great on clay. It is really the same in horseracing now that there are 3 surfaces. You will have horses that are great on one surface but not another. You had the same thing before but that was only with 2 surfaces. Having a 3rd surface just complicates things a bit more.

disappearingdan_akaplaya · #12 10-31-2006, 03:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Polytrack is not like normal dirt. It's a different surface. Nobody is denying that. There will be turf horses that run poorly on normal dirt that will run well on polytrack.

In tennis, they play on 3 different surfaces. There is clay, grass, and cement. Some guys dominate on one surface but not another. Federer is not that great on clay. It is really the same in horseracing now that there are 3 surfaces. You will have horses that are great on one surface but not another. You had the same thing before but that was only with 2 surfaces. Having a 3rd surface just complicates things a bit more.

agree richi but also to add to your response to point g'z post...... there are alotta horses who have won g1's and other graded stakes but are not g1 worthy. LOL do you truly believe bellamy road beat a g1 calibur field in the wood, itd be hard pressed to say it was even g3 overall. of course some people are still under the dellusion hes a great horse*cough cough* coach

Pointg5 · #13 10-31-2006, 03:40 PM

They may take back, in your opinion would you say that horses have a natural running style that they perform their best when they can produce that running style. I would say yes, but I would defer to someone who probably knows more than I do about that...If they are taking back you are taking them out of their natural...I say it's a training track, because alot of trainers are using it to train for the BC, but not running there like Frankel or O'Neil. KEE will be full this Spring with Derby horses training, but not running there...

Pointg5 · #14 10-31-2006, 03:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by disappearingdan_akaplaya

agree richi but also to add to your response to point g'z post...... there are alotta horses who have won g1's and other graded stakes but are not g1 worthy. LOL do you truly believe bellamy road beat a g1 calibur field in the wood, itd be hard pressed to say it was even g3 overall. of course some people are still under the dellusion hes a great horse*cough cough* coach

I would love to see BR run against Bernardini, I can't say who would win, but it would be great to watch...

disappearingdan_akaplaya · #15 10-31-2006, 03:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pointg5

I would love to see BR run against Bernardini, I can't say who would win, but it would be great to watch...

LMFAO are you serious?

Pointg5 · #16 10-31-2006, 03:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by disappearingdan_akaplaya

LMFAO are you serious?

Yes, BR was very good, he certainly ran faster than Bernardini did on uncontested leads. Like it or not, BR was a very nice horse, but unfortunately like others we didn't get to see much of him...

Rupert Pupkin · #17 10-31-2006, 05:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pointg5

They may take back, in your opinion would you say that horses have a natural running style that they perform their best when they can produce that running style. I would say yes, but I would defer to someone who probably knows more than I do about that...If they are taking back you are taking them out of their natural...I say it's a training track, because alot of trainers are using it to train for the BC, but not running there like Frankel or O'Neil. KEE will be full this Spring with Derby horses training, but not running there...

The guys who are using it to train are also running horses on it. O'Neil ran plenty of horses on it. He ran Great Hunter on it. Frankel ran horses at Keeneland. I'm not aware of any guys that like training their horses on it but don't like running on it.

Rupert Pupkin · #18 10-31-2006, 06:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by disappearingdan_akaplaya

LMFAO are you serious?

BR was an awesome horse. There's no telling what he would have accomplished if he didn't get hurt. They totally ruined him by running him in the Travers when he wasn't ready.

Rupert Pupkin · #19 10-31-2006, 10:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pointg5

They may take back, in your opinion would you say that horses have a natural running style that they perform their best when they can produce that running style. I would say yes, but I would defer to someone who probably knows more than I do about that...If they are taking back you are taking them out of their natural...I say it's a training track, because alot of trainers are using it to train for the BC, but not running there like Frankel or O'Neil. KEE will be full this Spring with Derby horses training, but not running there...

At the Keeneland meet that just ended, they had the biggest fields that they've ever had. That means the track is being used for a lot more than training.

I think you are totally wrong about the upcoming Spring meet. Derby horses will be much more likely to run at Keeneland now than before. Guys want to keep their horse in one piece before the Derby. Guys will be thrilled to prep on that track. The Bluegrass Stakes will look more atractive than ever to trainers.

philcski · #20 10-31-2006, 11:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pointg5

I disagree, initial thoughts are that it's probably great for training and will keep horses sound and that's a good thing, that I do not deny. As for the racing, what about the owner that just spent millions on horses that are precocious and built for speed? Do you really think they are going to be happy watching their million dollar babies out there spinning their wheels? What do you think is going to happen out there when all of those Cali Speedballs are tanking, you think owners are going to be happy. Sure, they may have a healthy horse, that is not earning anything. What Kee has done is essentially made itself a training track and that trend will continue. I don't think that was their intention.

http://www.drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesI...KEE1028070.pdf

Speed horses CAN win on this stuff. Note the fractions and the odds on the winner.