Pre-Draw Rankings

[Kasept]

About to head to Louisville, and thought I'd post my pre-draw rabkings of the races which is on the home page... Tear 'em up.. Talk to you from Louisville late tonight or Thursday a.m.!

Steve


RANKING THE CUP CONTENDERS

With the draw Wednesday, here are our current views of the Breeders' Cup fields based on form and value as measured against liklihood of success. (Top 5 represent our current preferences for horses to be used in keys and boxes). Final selections Friday...


JUVENILE FILLIES:

1. #14 Gatorize 30-1
2. #4 Octave 6-1
3. #3 Cash Included 7-2
4. #11 Satulagi 50-1
5. #6 Bel Air Beauty 30-1

6. #9 Adrythem 12-1
7. #12 Appealing Zophie 10-1
8. #2 Sutra 20-1
9. #7 Cotton Blossom 10-1
10. #1 Dreaming of Anna 4-1
11. #13 Quick Little Miss 30-1
12. #10 Her Majesty 10-1
13. #5 She's Included 15-1
14. #8 Lilly Carson 30-1


JUVENILE:

1. #1 Street Sense 20-1
2. #3 Scat Daddy 4-1
3. #7 Great Hunter 9-2
4. #5 C P West 15-1
5. #2 Stormello 6-1

6. #13 Malt Magic 30-1
7. #6 Principle Secret 5-1
8. #10 Pegasus Wind 15-1
9. #9 Circular Quay 5-2
10. #14 Skip Code 50-1
11. #8 Teufelsberg 50-1
12. #11 Got the Last Laugh 20-1
13. #12 U D Ghetto 50-1
14. #4 King of the Roxy 12-1


FILLY & MARE TURF:

1. #2 Ouija Board 8-5
2. #7 Wait a While 3-1
3. #4 Film Maker 6-1
4. #8 My Typhoon 20-1
5. #3 Mauralakana 15-1

6. #9 Satwa Queen 12-1
7. #5 Honey Ryder 4-1
8. #1 Dancing Edie 30-1
9. #10 Germance 12-1
10. #6 Quiet Royal 30-1


SPRINT:

1. #9 Too Much Bling 10-1
2. #4 Henny Hughes 2-1
3. #6 Bordonaro 3-1
4. #10 War Front 12-1
5. #14 Kelly's Landing 20-1

6. #12 Malibu Mint 30-1
7. #8 Pomeroy 8-1
8. #11 Siren Lure 10-1
9. #2 Friendly Island 30-1
10. #13 Attila's Storm 20-1
11. #1 Thor's Echo 10-1
12. #7 Nightmare Affair 30-1
13. #3 Lewis Michael 30-1
14. #5 Areyoutalkintome 30-1


MILE:

1. #12 Gorella 4-1
2. #3 Araafa 9-2
3. #7 Aragorn 5-1
4. #5 Free Thinking 15-1
5. #10 Miesque's Approval 10-1

6. #1 Ad Valorem 20-1
7. #8 Badge of Silver 12-1
8. #11 Super Frolic 50-1
9. #4 Sleeping Indian 20-1
10. #6 Echo of Light 10-1
11. #9 Rob Roy 15-1
12. #14 Aussie Rules 10-1
13. #13 Librettist 6-1
14. #2 Silent Name 20-1



DISTAFF:

1. #7 Fleet Indian 8-5
2. #6 Spun Sugar 10-1
3. #1 Round Pond 15-1
4. #14 Balletto 6-1
5. #2 Pine Island 5-1

6. #13 Happy Ticket 12-1
7. #9 Pool Land 10-1
8. #4 Sharp Lisa 50-1
9. #10 Hollywood Story 20-1
10. #3 Healthy Addiction 10-1
11. #8 Baghdaria 30-1
12. #12 Asi Siempre 15-1
13. #11 Bushfire 30-1
14. #5 Lemons Forever 30-1


TURF:

1. #4 Scorpion 6-1
2. #6 Cacique 4-1
3. #2 T.H. Approval 20-1
4. #10 English Channel 7-2
5. #1 Go Deputy 6-1

6. #7 Hurricane Run 3-1
7. #9 Red Rocks 10-1
8. #8 Better Talk Now 12-1
9. #11 Silverfoot 30-1
10.#5 Rush Bay 20-1
11. #3 Icy Atlantic 30-1


CLASSIC:

1. #3 Bernardini 1-1
2. #11 Invasor 5-1
3. #7 David Junior 10-1
4. #13 Sun King 15-1
5. #5 Lawyer Ron 20-1

7. #8 Lava Man 6-1
8. #2 Premium Tap 30-1
9. #12 Suave 30-1
10. #6 Perfect Drift 20-1
11. #1 Brother Derek 30-1
12. #4 George Washington 10-1
13. #9 Giacomo 30-1
14. #10 Flower Alley 30-1

[dellinger63]

Have a safe trip, thanks and see ya Friday.

[paisjpq]

shame on you my dear, for your placement of the SHODs...mark it down they will place bettere then where you have them

[1st_Saturday_in_May]

Man Byk, I'd say you were crazy, but your usually right!

[ateamstupid]

Apparently this man has completely forgotten Hurricane Run.

[Buffymommy]

When are we going to find out the final entries? I WANNA KNOW!

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

lol lawyer ron beating GEE AH KOWMOW!!!!!

[sumitas]

i'm playing random numbers. like quick draw.

that's it

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Kasept

About to head to Louisville, and thought I'd post my pre-draw rabkings of the races which is on the home page... Tear 'em up.. Talk to you from Louisville late tonight or Thursday a.m.!

Steve


RANKING THE CUP CONTENDERS

With the draw Wednesday, here are our current views of the Breeders' Cup fields based on form and value as measured against liklihood of success. (Top 5 represent our current preferences for horses to be used in keys and boxes). Final selections Friday...

Now this is a way to list horses! Not by likelihood of winning, but by value. If I am interpreting your list correctly, you are saying that Gatorize does not have a better chance of winning than Cash Included or Dreaming of Anna, but that Gatorize's chances are much bettor than her likely odds, while Dreaming of Anna's are less than her likely odds.

Thanks for posting these.

I've only looked at 3 races closesly, but here is the way I'd list them, also in order of value:

Sprint:
1 Thor's Echo
2 Bordonaro
3 Malibu Mint
4 Attila's Storm
5 WarFront
6 AreUTalkinTome
7 NightmareAff'r
8 TooMuchBling
9 SirenLure
10 Lewis Michael
11 Friendly Island
12 Pomeroy
13 Kelly's Landing
14 Henny Hughes

(we have 3 in common in the top 5; and 4 in the top 6)

Distaff:

1 Sharp Lisa
2 Baghdaria
3 LemonsForevr
4 Round Pond
5 HappyTicket
6 AsiSiempre
7 Pool Land
8 Balleto
9 Hollyw'dStory
10 Pine Island
11 HealthyAddict'n
12 Bushfire
13 FleetIndian
14 Spun Sugar

Yikes, not much in common here. My first pick for value is your next-to-last!
(I've left off Summerly in my line, so far)

Classic:

1 Super Frolic
2 (Geo Washington)
3 Premium Tap
4 Lawyer Ron
5 Bernardini
6 (David Junior)
7 Perfect Drift
8 Invasor
9 Sun King
10 Giacomo
11 Lava Man
12 Brother Derek
13 Flower Alley
14 Suave

Another case of 'your last is my first'! But I put Super Frolic at about 30-1, so the 50-1 provisional ML looks good. Pinnacle's 80-1 looked even better. (I used the ML's you listed for comparison with my own line.)

The Europeans are in parenthesis because of the extra uncertainty with them. I will probably not bet them, but I want to give them the benefit of the doubt when evaluating other horses's chances.