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#1
11-02-2017, 02:37 PM
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11/4 (DMR): Breeders' Cup Saturday
Fun start to the BC weekend Friday with Forever Unbridled capping the day under Johnny V. in a well-orchestrated Distaff triumph. While a 3-start campaign doesn't sit well with purists, no one can argue with the result produced by Dallas Stewart's deliberate Championship path. Nice though that she'll go forward into a 6yo season with the unusual Mr. Fipke eager to try some ambitious spots.
Wagering bumped along throughout the day with Rushing Fall ($8.00) & Best Performance (16-1) keying a great Juvy Filly Turf outcome that produced big returns. Chad Brown and Bob Edwards repeated in the event (New Money Honey in '16) and have a shot to upset Bolt d'Oro today with Good Magic. Mendelssohn, the Beholder brother who took great advantage of the inside draw, was not on any ticket and tormented every multi-race play for me. Thoro-Graph's Jerry Brown cleverly asserted that Lasix could be a big boost to the $3,000,000 Ballydoyle hopeful based on how he had abruptly stopped in the Champagne at Doncaster 2 back. Battle of Midway ($30.40) ran a tremendous race to beat a hard-trying Sharp Azteca in the Dirt Mile and owner-trainer combo of Don Alberto & Jerry Hollendorfer have an obvious chance to score again with Unique Bella in the F&M Sprint. Hope everyone got off to a good start and are prepared to attack today's opportunities! DEL MAR ~ BREEDERS' CUP SATURDAY POST-SCRATCHES 1st: 6th Goldikova (G2), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P5, P3, DD) Kitten's Roar a strong 'A' and potential single for P5 players considering difficulty degree in the 3rd-5th.. Most Likely: #7 Kitten's Roar 5-1 WON ($8.20) Next Best: #1 On Leave 9-2 3rd Best Value: #6 Hillhouse High 12-1 10th Exotics Use: #11 Aljazzi 6-1 7th Super Add: #9 Majestic Heat 12-1 6th 2nd: 5th Golden St. Juvenile-R, 2yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD) Most Likely: #6 Bookies Luck 7-2 WON ($5.20) Next Best: #1 Smokem 5-2 2nd Best Value: #5 Lucky Romero 10-1 3rd Exotics Use: #2 Night At the Opera 3-1 5th 3rd: 5th Juvenile Turf Sprint, 2yo, 5f-T (P3, DD) Best Value: #12 Majestic Dunhill 20-1 10th Next Best: #10 March X Press 7-2 5th Exotics Use: #3 Count Alexander 6-1 11th Super Add: #5 Sound And Silence 8-1 2nd 4th: 34th Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1), 2yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD) Taking a page from Rick Hammerle's 'don't let the post get you off the best horse' playbook, I'll stick with Separationofpowers. She's the best filly here and trust Jose Ortiz to find his way to an acceptable 3-wide around the first turn from the tricky slot. Wonder Gadot (8-1), like Flameaway finally getting to turf Friday, has potential to leap forward on her proper surface. Caledonia Road (15-1) will be discounted coming from under-known Ralph Nicks, but he's great with youngsters and she put in a strong run behind top choice in the Frizette.. Most Likely: #13 Separationofpowers 4-1 4th Next Best: #11 Wonder Gadot 8-1 6th Best Value: #12 Caldonia Road 15-1 WON ($36.60) Exotics Use: #1 Heavenly Love 9-2 11th Super Add: #8 Piedi Bianchi 15-1 5th REVERSE TRI KEY: Was asked for example of the Reverse Tri Key concept. Idea is take the most logical exacta candidates and top them over a price play that might hang on or clunk up for third.. Example, 1-7-11-13 (Separationofpowers/Wonder Gadot/Moonshine Memories/Heavenly Love) with 1-7-11-13 with 12 (Caldonia Road): 4x3x1 = $12 or $6 for .50. Optionally, you could use all three of #3 (12-1) Princess Warrior/#8 (15-1) Piedi Bianchi/#12 (15-1) Caledonia Road in the 3rd slot: 1-7-11-13 with 1-7-11-13 with 3-8-12: 4x3x3 = $36 or $18 for .50. Other Reverse Tri Key candidates today: TURF SPRINT: #3 Holding Gold (15-1); #9 Mongolian Saturday (20-1) F&M SPRINT: #7 By the Moon (12-1); #10 Highway Star 15-1 F&M TURF: #1 War Flag 12-1 SPRINT: #1 Calculator 20-1 MILE: #4 Lancaster Bomber 20-1; #6 Zelzal 20-1; #11 Ballagh Rocks 12-1 JUVENILE: #10 Golden Dragon 30-1; #12 Hollywood Star 15-1 TURF: #10 Fanciful Angel; #7 Itsinthepost; #13 Sadler's Joy 12-1 CLASSIC: #2 War Decree 30-1; #9 Gunnevera 30-1 5th: 10th Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (G1), 3+, 5f-T (P4, P3, DD) Off the pace is typically the winner's path going 5f here. Lady Aurelia, along with Lady Eli and Unique Bella, is a horse I'd just like to see win and she can stalk and go successfully. Richard's Boy has an upset look and will be an overlay; Marsha bested the top pick in the thrilling Nunthorpe; Pure Sensation dangerous up front.. Most Likely: #3 Lady Aurelia 5-2 10th Best Value: #7 Richard's Boy 10-1 2nd Next Best: #6 Marsha 7-2 6th Exotics Use: #12 Pure Sensation 10-1 5th Super Add: #10 Hogy 12-1 11th P5 Grid: 1: 1-7 (A), 6 (B), 9-11 (C) 2: 1-6 (A), - (B), 2-5 (C) 3: 10-12-13 (A), - (B), 3-5 (C) 4: 11-13 (A), - (B), 1-4-7-8-12 (C) 5: 3-7 (A), 6-12 (B), 1-2-10 (C) Simple (A+B): 3x2x3x2x2 = 144 x .50 = $72 All A's: 2x2x3x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24 P4 Grid: 2: 1-6 (A), - (B), 2-5 (C) 3: 10-12-13 (A), 3-5 (B), 1-2 (C) 4: 11-12-13 (A), - (B), 1-4-7-8-12 (C) 5: 3-7 (A), - (B), 1-2-6-10-11-12 (C) Simple (A+B): 2x5x5x2 = 100 x .50 = $50 All A's: 2x3x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18 6th: 11th Breeders' Cup F&M Sprint (G1), F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD) From a multi-race standpoint, you may require Unique Bella as a single and she feels likely to justify that approach. But as LP3 has stressed, no 3yo has won this race, Unique Bella could get caught wide and there are no shortage of tough cookies to deal with including reformed claimer Skye Diamonds. One approach could be a backup P3 with other major candidates that leans on Separationofpowers/Lady Aurelia ahead and Lady Eli and obvious sprinters behind (See below).. Most Likely: #11 Unique Bella 9-5 7th Next Best: #12 Skye Diamonds 5-1 4th Best Value: #14 Ami's Mesa 20-1 2nd Exotics Use: #1 Carina Mia 12-1 3rd Super Add: #10 Highway Star 15-1 11th J-Filly/T-Sprint/F&M Sprint P3 (4th-6th): 11-12-13 with 3 with 1-3-4-7-9-10-12-14 (3x1x8 = $24 or $12 for .50) T-Sprint/F&M Sprint/F&M Turf P3 (5th-7th): 3 with All with 8-9 (1x14x2 = $28 or $14 for .50) F&M Sprint/F&M Turf/Sprint P3 (6th-8th): 1-7-10-12-14 with 8-9 with 2-3-8-10 (5x2x4 = $40 or $20 for .50) 7th: 19th Breeders' Cup F&M Turf (G1), F&M-3+, 9f-T (P6, P3, DD) Lady Eli the sentimental (and capable) pick; Grand Jete overdue for some luck; Cambodia great over this course this summer; Wuheida making a positive impression coming in.. Most Likely: #9 Lady Eli 5-2 7th Next Best: #8 Grand Jete 6-1 9th Best Value: #6 Cambodia 8-1 3rd Exotics Use: #5 Wuheida 20-1 WON ($24.40) Super Add: #10 Queen's Trust 12-1 5th 8th: 34th Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1), 3+, 6f (P3, DD) Drefong could overwhelm this field and it will be no surprise, but that inside draw is very tricky. Imperial Hint is scary fast. American Pastime ideal as your price key in all slots. Roy H the pick coming up to another peak effort.. Most Likely: #8 Roy H 7-2 WON ($11.80) Best Value: #3 American Pastime 12-1 4th Next Best: #2 Drefong 5-2 6th Exotics Use: #10 Imperial Hint 9-2 2nd Super Add: #1 Calculator 20-1 7th P4 Grid: 5: 3-7 (A), 6-12 (B), 1-2-5-11 (C) 6: 11 (A), - (B), 1-7-10-12-14 (C) 7: 6-8-9 (A), 4-5-10 (B), 1-7 (C) 8: 2-3-8-10 (A), - (B), 1-5 (C) Simple (A+B): 4x1x6x4 = 96 x .50 = $48 All A's: 2x1x3x4 = $24 ($12 for .50) 9th: 34th Breeders' Cup Mile (G1), 3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD) He won't be a price like his brother Miesque's Approval at Churchill in '06, but Mrs. Weber's homebred World Approval is going to get a perfect trip behind the speed. Ribchester an International stalwart. Bomber, Ballagh and Zelzal viable value.. Most Likely: #5 World Approval 9-2 WON ($7.40) Next Best: #10 Ribchester 7-2 5th Best Value: #4 Lancaster Bomber 20-1 2nd Exotics Use: #11 Ballagh Rocks 12-1 9th Super Add: #6 Zelzal 20-1 6th $1 Exacta (5-4) Paid $48.50 10th: 34th Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1), 2yo, 8.5f (P3, DD) Another of the day's major players and does look like your typical reliable Juvenile favorite. I'll use Good Magic as a B.. Most Likely: #11 Bolt d'Oro 9-5 3rd Best Value: #6 Good Magic 8-1 WON ($25.00) Next Best: #2 Solomini 6-1 2nd Exotics Use: #5 Free Drop Billy 5-1 9th Super Add: #3 Firenze Fire 6-1 7th $1 Exacta (6-2) Paid $67.80 $1 Trifecta (6-2-11) Paid $229.40 10th: 34th Breeders' Cup Turf (G1), 3+, 12f-T (DD) Arc winners might not annex the BC Turf, but horses out of the Arc have won their share. Ulysses SCRATCHED has pointed for this as his seasonal target since last year's visit as a 3yo and has campaigned at the highest level en route. Made a stunning impression Thursday bulldozing around the lawn and looks to be as imposing as any of the day's favorites.. Most Likely: #12 Beach Patrol 4-1 2nd Best Value: #1 Talismanic 15-1 WON ($30.20) Next Best: #3 Highland Reel 5-1 3rd Exotics Use: #13 Sadler's Joy 12-1 4th Super Add: #7 Itsinthepost 15-1 7th $1 Exacta (1-12) Paid $78.00 $1 Trifecta (1-12-3) Paid $261.80 $1 Superfecta (1-12-3-13) Paid $2,592.00 12th: 34th Breeders' Cup Classic (G1), 3+, 10f (Hi-5) Gun Runner will be tough to beat, but you know that Baffert has done everything possible to give Arrogate his chance to repeat. West Coast must be covered. Should be a terrific end to the weekend.. Most Likely: #1 Arrogate 2-1 5th-DH Next Best: #5 Gun Runner 9-5 WON ($6.80) Best Value: #8 West Coast 6-1 3rd Exotics Use: #9 Gunnevara 30-1 5th-DH Super Add: #10 Pavel 20-1 10th P6 Grid: 7: 8-9 (A), - (B), 5-6-10 (C) 8: 3-8 (A), 2-10 (B), - (C) 9: 5 (A), 10 (B), 4-11 (C) 10: 11 (A), - (B), 2-6 (C) 11: 1-12 (A), 3 (B), 7-13-14 (C) 12: 1-5-8 (A), - (B), 9-10-11 (C) Simple (A+B): 2x4x2x1x3x3 = 144 x $2 = $288 All A's: 2x2x1x1x2x3 = 24 x $2 = $48 $2 Pick-6 (5/8/5/6/1/5) Paid $1,381.80 (5OF6) x 2 = $2,763.20 P4 Grid: 9: 4-5-10-11 (A), 1-2 (B), 6-8 (C) 10: 11 (A), 2-6 (B), 1-3-5-10 (C) 11: 1-12 (A), 3 (B), 7-13-14 (C) 12: 1-5-8 (A), - (B), 9-10-11 (C) Simple (A+B): 6x3x3x3 = 162 x .50 = $81 All A's: 4x1x2x3 = $24 ($12 for .50) $0.50 Pick-4 (5/6/1/5) Paid $1,257.15 DIS-CLS DBL: DIS: 5-6 (A), 2-7 (B), 4-8 (C) CLS: 1-5-8 (A), - (B), 9-10-11 (C) Simple (A+B): 4x3 = 12 x $2 = $24 All A's: 2x3 = 6 x $4 = $24 $1 Double (6/5) Paid $18.70 x 4 = $74.80 (All A's); x 2 = $37.60 (Simple) Good luck! Steve
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 11-05-2017 at 06:40 AM. 
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#2
11-04-2017, 10:23 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#3
11-04-2017, 11:24 AM
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Mendelssohn killed my multis too. Thought he would be overbet based on breeding and connections . With last at 50-1 felt that he wasn't thought that high of but should have at least included.
Fresh start today. Good luck to all.
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#4
11-04-2017, 11:26 AM
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Let's get lucky!
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#5
11-04-2017, 01:27 PM
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Best feeling ever to see my 92 yo mother in law bet a straight P3 Battle of Midway-Mendelssohn-Forever Unbridled for $3....she kept saying oooh my oooh my. Thx Steve for all the great advice and especially the reverse tri-key suggestions -- BOL today!!
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#8
11-04-2017, 09:12 PM
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Nice job giving out pk6 and pk 4. Hope you made some cash
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#10
11-04-2017, 11:39 PM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 11-05-2017 at 08:44 AM.
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#12
11-05-2017, 06:25 AM
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Great work Steve! Really an enjoyable BC but very sad that it is over. Thanks for your posts and your hard work.
__________________
It ain't the way I wanted it! I can handle things! I'm smart! Not like everybody says..... Like dumb..... I'm smart and I want respect!
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#13
11-05-2017, 08:44 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#14
11-05-2017, 09:15 AM
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I took your top 3 picks Steve and did 2$ rolling dd, #1 rolling pk 3' s .50$ pick 4 and 5' s the full Monty, by the 7 th race Saturday I was out of bankroll, you were having a tough time, but the good news is that I played the late pick 4 at the start of the day so I at least got most of my money back, you were right about one score can make your day, You closed th day like Zenyatta, my favorite horse of all time, GOD BLESS
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#15
11-06-2017, 06:42 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#16
11-06-2017, 02:27 PM
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Many Thanks for making Horseracing fun
BC friday was a disaster and saturday started out the same. I gave up pick threes, doubles, pick fours and trifectas. Saturday in the sixth race i threw in the five bar of gold in an exacta box and hit the exacta for 1,030.20 using your picks. it really would of been a memorable day if i played the tri(6,926) and superfecta(176,369) with your horses. I was able to play your picks in the last pick four and just loved the payoff of 1,257....Thanks a Ton
I just love horse racing again because of Mr. Steve......wishing you all the best sir myke
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#17
11-07-2017, 07:00 AM
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#19
11-07-2017, 03:56 PM
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Great job! And thank you. It means a lot to me to know that you're enjoying the game again. Was a fun Cup..
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#20
11-07-2017, 04:08 PM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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