here is what i think,start calling me a dummy

[ontheoutside]

justify wins the Belmont by 6 to 10 lengths

reasoning? ok here is my light bulb moment

in the derby there was nothing in there to push him all the way around

you had kinda cheap speed go maybe 5 furlongs and then spit the bit
justify took over and always had a 2 length lead at all times after that

in the Preakness there was no cheap speed there was a solid horse who took lustify to the limit in good magic nothing cheap about him

my thinking is you need a horse that can have speed throughout the whole race good magic did that and only got beat a length[ a credit to the horse he is
if anyone had that kind of horse ,the Preakness was the race to put him in, not the Belmont I think you will get a couple of cheap speed horses that will take justify ,who will lye 3rd to the 5 furlong pole and justify just cruises by there isn't a horse out there that can sustain what good magic did in Preakness this will not be close

[cakes44]

I think he wins easy because he’s in unreal condition + more talented than these, or he finishes off the board because he’s way over the top. I don’t see any in-between, but the race is 3 weeks away.

O’Neill’s horse seemed to like Belmont just fine...

[Alabama Stakes]

He looks the part. I think that is the key. He looks that good. He has looked like a superhoss from the beginning. He is intelligent. The way he goes he will be impossible to beat in the Belmont. He will eat up those big wide turns and win by double digits.

[Kitan]

Originally Posted by cakes44

I think he wins easy because he’s in unreal condition + more talented than these, or he finishes off the board because he’s way over the top. I don’t see any in-between, but the race is 3 weeks away.

O’Neill’s horse seemed to like Belmont just fine...

Ideal trip never hurts...

[Dunbar]

Justify finished a rapidly diminishing half-length in front of two previously unremarkable 3-yr-olds, and now he's unbeatable in the Belmont? I don't think so.

[jms62]

Watch for one Ortiz brother to go on a suicide pace mission to setup the other... Smith has to avoid falling for it...

[casp0555]

Originally Posted by jms62

Watch for one Ortiz brother to go on a suicide pace mission to setup the other... Smith has to avoid falling for it...

The NY shuffle tactic....works pretty often

[ontheoutside]

that's good but with all due respect to dunbar no one will do what good magic did for as long as he did it justify wont be under pressure like Preakness just not going to happen

now everyone says horses will go on suiside mission and justify must not fall into trap
remember folks he knows how to sit the trip
my opinion it wont be close
for my sake I hope im worong because I bet the longshots
but I just think im right here

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Justify finished a rapidly diminishing half-length in front of two previously unremarkable 3-yr-olds, and now he's unbeatable in the Belmont? I don't think so.

I agree with Dunbar. I'm looking to bet against Justify in the Belmont. He will be way overbet and he is coming off only an average performance. Even horses who look like world beaters winning the Ky Derby and Preakness usually get beat in the Belmont. Here we have a horse coming off an unimpressive win. I think there is a good chance that the hard campaign he has had in a relatively short period of time is starting to catch up with him. We will know more when we see him train over the next couple of weeks. I will be looking for any minor change in his appearance. We will see if his energy level galloping is as good as it has been the last couple of months. If he looks as good as ever, then I won't be in such a big hurry to bet against him. But if I see even a minor change in his appearance, I will be eager to bet against him.

[ontheoutside]

I must ask what was unimpressive about it? he was stalked by the champion 2 yr old for a mile and 2/16th unimpressive? really?

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by ontheoutside

I must ask what was unimpressive about it? he was stalked by the champion 2 yr old for a mile and 2/16th unimpressive? really?

His Ky Derby performance was obviously very impressive. He set suicide fractions and still won relatively easily. In the Preakness the pace was average and he barely beat Bravazo. Barely beating Bravazo after setting dead average fractions is not impressive to me. Examples of impressive performances in the Preakness would be Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, Big Brown, and horses like that. And even those horses got beat in the Belmont.

This 2018 Preakness was one of the least impressive Preaknesses, if not the least impressive in the last 20 years IMO.

[ontheoutside]

good luck on the belmont

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

In the Preakness the pace was average and he barely beat Bravazo. Barely beating Bravazo after setting dead average fractions is not impressive to me.

Justify and Good Magic ran the fastest opening quarter for a route race the entire Pimlico weekend and also set the fastest mile time as well. This is particularly relevant because the Preakness was the longest race of the weekend.

They went fast early and sustained it into the far turn.

[ontheoutside]

hum, your turn Rupert should get facts straight before hitting those letters

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by ontheoutside

hum, your turn Rupert should get facts straight before hitting those letters

I probably shouldn't have the used the word "average". I should have said, "slightly faster than average". They went the half in :47.11. That was the 3rd fastest half out of the 6 route races on Saturday. Ax Man went :46 4/5. It didn't seem to bother him. He won by 7 lengths. Unle Mojo's race went :46 3/5. He was laying 2nd about 2 lengths behind. So he went around :47. He ended up winning by 12 lengths.

No matter what metric you use, Justify set way faster fractions in the Ky Derby and won easily. He went much slower in the Preakness and barely beat Bravazo. Justify definitely regressed in the Preakness. Now he will be coming back in 3 weeks to run 1 1/2 miles. That is the kind of horse I will always be looking to bet against. As I said before, if he continues to keep training really well, I will not be as gung-ho to bet against him. But if I see even a tiny change (which I am expecting to see) in his appearance, I will be betting against him enthusiastically.

By the way, if you are going to compare the fractions of the Preakness to route races run that day, I think the half mile time is a much better comparison than the opening quarter mile. The Preakness is 1 3/16 miles, so they had a much longer run to the first turn than the other route races. So the opening quarter will automatically be a few ticks faster than the opening quarter in the other route races, all things being equal. They run much faster on straightaways than they do running around a turn.

[ontheoutside]

I too will try to beat him ,as a gambler but I still think he wins going away

[moses]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

His Ky Derby performance was obviously very impressive. He set suicide fractions and still won relatively easily. In the Preakness the pace was average and he barely beat Bravazo. Barely beating Bravazo after setting dead average fractions is not impressive to me. Examples of impressive performances in the Preakness would be Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, Big Brown, and horses like that. And even those horses got beat in the Belmont.

This 2018 Preakness was one of the least impressive Preaknesses, if not the least impressive in the last 20 years IMO.

I don’t quite understand the contempt for Bravazo. As a bettor, sure he’s frustrating because it seems like there are races where he just doesn’t want to run. But when he’s on, he normally puts together a good race.

He’s now run well in both Triple Crown races. His performances deserve a little bit of respect.

As far as Justify’s performance in the Preakness, does anyone know the last time the Derby and Preakness were both run in wet conditions? Is there any way Justify didn’t come out of the Derby 100% (we heard the scratches / heel bruise stuff) and he didn’t take to the wet surface as well the second time around because of it?

[senator L]

If you didn't go to the wedding, don't go to the funeral

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by moses

I don’t quite understand the contempt for Bravazo. As a bettor, sure he’s frustrating because it seems like there are races where he just doesn’t want to run. But when he’s on, he normally puts together a good race.

He’s now run well in both Triple Crown races. His performances deserve a little bit of respect.

As far as Justify’s performance in the Preakness, does anyone know the last time the Derby and Preakness were both run in wet conditions? Is there any way Justify didn’t come out of the Derby 100% (we heard the scratches / heel bruise stuff) and he didn’t take to the wet surface as well the second time around because of it?

Bravazo is not a bad horse. He's obviously a decent horse. He won the Risen Star. But when you look at his best races compared to Justify's best races, Justify should beat him relatively easily (3-4 lengths minimum). Show me one race that he's ever run that would get within 2-3 lengths of Justify at his best.

In addition, what do you think past Triple Crown winners would have done to Bravazo? They would have crushed him. A horse who can barely beat Bravazo in the Preakness is unlikely to win the Triple Crown.

It is possible that Justify had an excuse that we are unaware of. It is conceivable that he wasn't crazy about the track. Not all sloppy tracks are alike. Maybe the pace was faster than it looked. On a day like that, the track condition can change over the course of the day. Maybe it was slower and more tiring by the time the Preakness was run. But I think those things are unlikely. In addition, it seem unlikely that he will improve coming back in just 3 weeks and running 1 1/2 miles. We will see.

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Justify finished a rapidly diminishing half-length in front of two previously unremarkable 3-yr-olds, and now he's unbeatable in the Belmont? I don't think so.

This feels silly.