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Old 07-20-2018, 06:38 AM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 43,475
Default 7/20: Saratoga ~ Opening Day (Lake George, Schuylerville)

An idyllic day greets Spa-goers and stakeholders for opening day at historic and welcoming Saratoga Race Course.. Best to all for safe trips and 40 blissful afternoons!


SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: CLM, 3+, 9f (P5, P3, DD)

Quirky opener to the season with distance a question for all but Turco Bravo..

Best Value: #7 Hardly a Secret 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Believe in Luck 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Nobody Move 3-1 7th
Super Add: #6 Bad Student 9-2 WON ($13.80)


2nd: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Drynachan 5-2 WON ($6.20)
Next Best: #9 Mike's Girl 9-2 4th
Best Value: #5 Shady Shady Shady 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Bank Examiner 5-1 8th


3rd: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Strong Side 2-1 WON ($5.80)
Next Best: #4 Sicilia Mike 4-1 4th
Best Value: #8 Fortythreeoeight N 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Monteleone 5-2 6th


4th: MCLM/$75k, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Azzedine 5-2 5th
Best Value: #8 Eagle Pass 6-1 4th
Next Best: #9 Teryn It Up 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Dominant Strategy 4-1 WON ($11.00)


5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Lyrical Lady 4-1 WON ($15.80)
Next Best: #1 Blahnik 2-1 10th
Best Value: #7 Princess Trina 8-1 9th
Exotics Use: #3 Wild Type 6-1 7th


P5 Grid:

1: 2-5-6-7 (A), - (B), 1-3-4 (C)
2: 4-9 (A), - (B), 1-5-7-10 (C)
3: 2-4 (A), 6-8 (B), 1-3 (C)
4: 6 (A), - (B), 4-8-9 (C)
5: 1-6 (A), 3-7 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B):4x2x4x1x4 = 128 x .50 = $64
All A's: 4x2x2x1x2 = 32 x .50 = $16

$0.50 Pick-5 (6/4,11,12,13/2/4/6) Paid $1,040.00 (A-A-A-C-A ~ $172 play)


P4 Grid:

2: 4-9 (A), - (B), 1-5-7-10 (C)
3: 2-4-6-8 (A), - (B), 1-3 (C)
4: 6 (A), 8-9 (B), 3-4-5 (C)
5: 1-3-6-7-9 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x3x5 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 2x4x1x5 = 40 x .50 = $20


$0.50 Pick-4 (4,11,12,13/2/4/6) Paid $170.25 (A-A-C-A ~ $170 play)


6th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Miss Mimosa 3-1 6th
Best Value: #10 Palladian Bridge 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Dancing All Night 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Cypiana 7-2 7th


7th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Myhartblongstodady 9-2 2nd
Best Value: #12 Giant Zinger 5-1 WON ($10.40)
Exotics Use: #2 Sweet August Lady 6-1 5th
Super Add: #3 Cumbria 4-1 10th


8th: 100th Schuylerville (G3), 2yo-F, 6f (P3, DD)

Supremely well-matched set of fillies for the centennial running of this traditional Spa Stakes slate. A good deal of mystery involved with 6 of the 9 having run outside New York ahead of this assignment. Virtually any superfecta combination appears possible..

Best Value: #6 Tapping Pearl 10-1: Debuted, won at the 6f, plus angle for early SAR stakes.. 9th
Next Best: #2 Nonna Madeline 7-2: Pletch/Repole/Viola miss negotiated traffic.. 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Catherinethegreat 7-2: "Fastest" coming in but first on dry/fast.. WON ($8.40)
Super Add: #9 Lady Apple 8-1: Talented MDN was hard luck Astoria loser.. 5th


9th: 23rd Lake George (G3), 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (DD)

Pace looks pokey..

Most Likely: #5 Goodthingstaketime 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #1 Punked 5-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Daddy Is a Legend 9-5 WON ($5.30)
Exotics Use: #7 Altea 3-1 2nd


10th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f-IT

In one of opening day's most interesting confluences, 5yo Dark Energy runs 3.5 hours after 3yo half brother Dominant Strategy..

Most Likely: #8 County Court 5-2 -
Best Value: #2 Dark Energy 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Shamsaan 10-1 -
Exotics Use: #4 Jo's Bold Cat 12-1 4th


P5 Grid:

6: 4-10 (A), - (B), 1-2-5-6 (C)
7: 1-12 (A), - (B), 2-3 (C)
8: 1-2-6 (A), 3-7-9 (B), 4-5-8-10 (C)
9: 1-5 (A), 3-7 (B), 6-8 (C)
10: 2-8 (A), - (B), 4-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x6x4x2 = 192 x .50 = $96
All A's: 2x2x3x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24


P4 Grid:

7: 1-2-12 (A), - (B), 3-5-10 (C)
8: 1-2-6 (A), 3-7-9 (B), 4-5-8-10 (C)
9: 1-5 (A), 3-7 (B), 6-8 (C)
10: 2-8 (A), - (B), 4-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x6x4x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x3x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18


Good luck!
Steve
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Last edited by Kasept : 07-20-2018 at 09:13 PM.
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  #2  
Old 07-20-2018, 10:25 AM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
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Location: Greenwich, NY
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SAR SCR/CHG'S
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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  #3  
Old 07-20-2018, 12:20 PM
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moses moses is offline
Oriental Park
 
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Posts: 3,625
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Thanks Steve.

Race 8 could be a doozy. I’m not keen on backing horses from Indiana Downs but the 7 Serengeti Empress has a very nice first race and a January birthday. Also liking the value on the 6 Tapping Pearl. It should be an interesting race.

Good luck all!
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Old 07-21-2018, 06:11 AM
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jms62 jms62 is offline
Saratoga
 
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Posts: 19,762
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Nice work on that pick 5 Steve
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  #5  
Old 07-21-2018, 06:32 AM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
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Location: Greenwich, NY
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jms62 View Post
Nice work on that pick 5 Steve
THX Jim. I'm annoyed that I didn't structure the winning 'other' Chad Brown as an A for the small budget players. Needed to make both Chad runners A's there and not fear the Thomas FTS. Alternately, Drynachan in the 2nd had single potential which gave more leeway in the 4th.

Decent enough start to the season. Hope you and all did well and enjoyed! It's a marathon, not a sprint!
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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  #6  
Old 07-21-2018, 08:27 AM
saratogadew saratogadew is offline
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Posts: 2,027
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Flashing some early speed out of the gate. Good job Steve!
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